Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Right, but I think it’s really after those dates. 15th is early imo. 15th might be 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 Almost without exception .. winter remembers November 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Almost without exception .. winter remembers November If the wheels are in motion late month thats fine. The shit winters with shit November’s had a piggy low over AK with no signs of leaving. We don’t have that. We just need to ease the PNA a tad which should happen later in month. -PNA itself isn’t bad, but in this case we need to ease that, and start a cold press from Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: 12z GEFS want absolutely none of what the Op run was sniffing at the end of its run. Nov 15th. Fast zonal flow, not screaming excitement. A change is gonna come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Who’s that posting those nasty charts…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Who’s that posting those nasty charts…. It’s Janet.. iitt’ss Janet .. It’s Janet Ginxy if yo nasty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 She inherited her brother’s surgically altered nose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: A change is gonna come Yeah for sure, near record warmth isn’t going to sustain itself. I think going forward the board will have two things to pay attention to… first, a change will come because those heights and warmth of the first ten days of November cannot sustain itself. So we all can probably agree a change from that type of anomalous regime is coming in mid-November. The second thing is when folks here are thinking of a “change” it’s likely they mean more towards colder than normal and winter. Changing from stout ridging and near record warmth possibilities, to flatter zonal flow but still a bit above normal in the means is a change, but maybe not the full “change” the forum is looking for, ha. But yeah, just averaging near normal temps the week of Thanksgiving would be a nice start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: If the wheels are in motion late month thats fine. The shit winters with shit November’s had a piggy low over AK with no signs of leaving. We don’t have that. We just need to ease the PNA a tad which should happen later in month. -PNA itself isn’t bad, but in this case we need to ease that, and start a cold press from Canada. I’ll take a -PNA undercutting a -EPO any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: second thing is when folks here are thinking of a “change” it’s likely they mean more towards colder than normal and winter. This is the standard interpretation lens, regardless. Even holding it against the author when the interpretation inevitably fails to resemble, when in reality said author was in fact remarkable prescient lol Simon and Garfunkel “…a man will hear what he needs to hear, and the rest he will throw away” Ooh just makes you proud to be a member of this species huh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I’ll take a -PNA undercutting a -EPO any day Yeah we could use the EPO ridge a little more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah for sure, near record warmth isn’t going to sustain itself. I think going forward the board will have two things to pay attention to… first, a change will come because those heights and warmth of the first ten days of November cannot sustain itself. So we all can probably agree a change from that type of anomalous regime is coming in mid-November. The second thing is when folks here are thinking of a “change” it’s likely they mean more towards colder than normal and winter. Changing from stout ridging and near record warmth possibilities, to flatter zonal flow but still a bit above normal in the means is a change, but maybe not the full “change” the forum is looking for, ha. But yeah, just averaging near normal temps the week of Thanksgiving would be a nice start. Change complete by the 25th storms rumors of storms. Patience grasshopper. Change to climo alone is good enoughfor you.. A more natural progression to a conducive winter pattern. Watch those models evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is the standard interpretation lens, regardless. Even holding it against the author when the interpretation inevitably fails to resemble, when in reality said author was in fact remarkable prescient lol Simon and Garfunkel “…a man will hear what he needs to hear, and the rest he will throw away” Ooh just makes you proud to be a member of this species huh Ha, right. I guess I was envisioning the discussions when it’s still mild and the discourse is telling Ginxy nothing changed… but it went from +10 to +2 in the means. Something definitely changes there… its just not -5 type days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah we could use the EPO ridge a little more east. Yeeah tl;dr wrote about that bias earlier in the day. Tru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha, right. I guess I was envisioning the discussions when it’s still mild and the discourse is telling Ginxy nothing changed… but it went from +10 to +2 in the means. Something definitely changes there… it’s just not -5 type days. And for what it’s worth … your point is clad. It’s not gonna be 75 to 81 for very long in November … at least until 2064 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Just walked through some of the heaviest rain I’ve ever been in. I’m in Panama City Beach, FL. Walked across the street from our condo for dinner. By the time we were done it was coming down like a firehose. We tried waiting it out but finally gave in and walked the 200 yards back to the condo. I don’t know what the rates were but the closest PWS has 2.52” on the day. Luckily the rest of the week is supposed to be nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: She inherited her brother’s surgically altered nose For sure…but that’s been evident for a few decades though. Her sister Latoya did too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 GFS would legit be +15 or better for November 1-10. Mind blowing anomalies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Wasn’t today supposed to be dry? There’s a solid mist falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Change complete by the 25th storms rumors of storms. Patience grasshopper. Change to climo alone is good enoughfor you.. A more natural progression to a conducive winter pattern. Watch those models evolve.So we went from change by the 15th to the 25th in less than 8hr?Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wasn’t today supposed to be dry? There’s a solid mist falling Had a bit of frost on the car this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: So we went from change by the 15th to the 25th in less than 8hr? Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Wut? Consistently said pattern change starts 15th completion by the 25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Wut? Consistently said pattern change starts 15th completion by the 25th?Yes, my bad. Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wasn’t today supposed to be dry? There’s a solid mist falling If you don't crank this you ain't alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 My final winter grade is a B. That really heavy frost a few days ago gave a solid wintry vibe to the lawn. Sometimes those little whitish gnats that flutter around in the evening look like flurries too. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: My final winter grade is a B. That really heavy frost a few days ago gave a solid wintry vibe to the lawn. Sometimes those little whitish gnats that flutter arond in the evening look like flurries too. Frigging yellow jackets don't want to die despite several below 30 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Still dark almost 7 bring on the time change.! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 27F and frozen again. Another 40 degree drop off the 67F high temp yesterday. Like some Colorado valley weather lately with these consistent big swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS would legit be +15 or better for November 1-10. Mind blowing anomalies. Long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 more fog this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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