CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You be you Scott. No need to knock me down like Kevin does. We shall score. Will you lighten up? Lol. How was that insulting? I’m obviously kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 We torch in the first half of Nov which everyone this year loves. No need to strain our fragile infrastructure and pocket books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 mm...I've been noticing the EPO retro thing for a while now. It wasn't very obvious at first. Several paragraphs incoming beyond this point: 10 or so days ( 2 weeks) ago, the extended at the time (ens too) were thrusting the EPO ridge. The operational versions occasionally even began bursting rather aggressively. But then, I noticed that the eastern N/A heights were never receding - in fact...going warmer... That's 'okay' ...I mean the -EPO teleconnector is a bit of a lag correlation here... The only time a -EPO onset directly cools this far down stream in short order, is if we are already IN a favorable L/W construct ( 2015 being the king example of the 'not have to wait' model). But, then ... --> retros began in the guidance over successive runs ... Kept happening, too. Repositioning the ridge toward the western limb of the EPO domain space... Sometimes even opting to have it not even in the EPO region so much, but squarely over the GOA, a configuration that pushes deeper heights through the Rockies and would make all this a moot point, anyway. There is room for hope not based purely on fantasy, however... nested in that complexity - just in case the above does not offer enough popsicle headache as it is... It would be low probability 'white knight' for colder enthusiasts, but is at least non-zero. The GGEM/GEF/EUR ens anomaly products have been an old standard metric for me, for assessing a feel for where the direction the continental temperatures may be heading. It's not just that, but NINAs tend to cool off autumns in Canada (it's after that they f* the year over but we'll cross that bridge, lol). So it seems there are mechanisms in play that fit the climo for ENSO ( which yes...I have a problem with using now, more so than I used to do to CC but... I'd rather not incur the wrath of Ray on NFL Sunday, when we're looking most likely forward to a debacle loss against the loathsome Jets already.) Okay, now that everyone's migraines are sufficiently wound up... all I'm saying is that sometimes the cold loads into the Canadian shield first..even if west initially, then future model trends (yet to manifest at the given point in time) adjust to it - it's kind of a low frequency feedback from continental forcing. The L/W is forced to "split" ... the flow bifurcates somewhere around 100 or 110 west... That sets the table for cold bleeding out across S. Canada - low and behold, the GGEM/Euro are hitting something similar already. Not sure that should be ignored, because there's a pretty loud climate inference/precedence for gradated cold NW against a SE ridge.. Now, that scenario is going to draw one's eyes naturally SE, first ... because we Meteorologist are really finger painting kindergarten artists that think that, "red is pretty!" But, that flow construct seldom lends to warmth ~ ORD-BOS latitudes. Basically, we may be mild to warm, even very warm if aspects break right, over the next 10 days but don't get used to it. If there was no -EPO at all, I'd say we're f* because the ENSO regardless, that -PNA appears to be locked into the Pacific footprint whether that is Nina this or decoupled that aside. The short version of this is that I am a little leery of this "west biased -EPO" aspect not eventually modulating toward an above tendency mid month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Link me up to where I said anything last winter about a pattern change in Nov. Joke? Oh that's what it is. Noted. Lol I have already lived 25 years longer than you. Easily and laughing the whole way. I keep smilin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 Steve, you are not 75 years old are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 49 minutes ago, dendrite said: That’s an aspirated, shielded sensor? Just the standard wireless Vantage Pro 2.... Wife doesn't think the $400 upgrade is necessity right now, or ever, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty much me and you and ORH left mowing and growing First morning below 35 here this morning. I was below freezing for 3 hours low of 29.5. Now 55 already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 wow, 28 to 50 in 3 hours. Not bad... but ORH is 60 f'um one?!! zonk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: First morning below 35 here this morning. I was below freezing for 3 hours low of 29.5. Now 55 already! 49.6 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 49.6 here Torch! Let’s restart growing season and enjoy a few more mows! Should be 63-68 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: You be you Scott. No need to knock me down like Kevin does. We shall score. I'm on the Ginx train. He's done a pretty good job the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 42 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Just the standard wireless Vantage Pro 2.... Wife doesn't think the $400 upgrade is necessity right now, or ever, lol What does she know? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 Top ten days just roll on and on this year. It's a beaut Clark. Great day for doing something besides sitting in a beer garden 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, kdxken said: What does she know? My weather purchases are all under the radar. Like 3 months down the road I will get a hey where did that come from. Lol she knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, kdxken said: I'm on the Ginx train. He's done a pretty good job the past few years. Nah nothing but a torched heater all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Steve, you are not 75 years old are you? 92 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 28 to 61 so far... nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 92 First hand accounts of hurricane of ‘38 is expected now…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: First hand accounts of hurricane of ‘38 is expected now…. He’s 66 I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s 66 I believe Not until the heart of winter on 2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 Sorry to keep bring this up but the difference is stunning. 28 at 8 am, 64 at noon. 36 diurnal is impressive enough, but we may get 40 out of this thing. Still 2 hours of an unabated sun to go, that still offers some heat - ... don't worry winter folk, the solar min starts in 9 days. heh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sorry to keep bring this up but the difference is stunning. 28 at 8 am, 64 at noon. 36 diurnal is impressive enough, but we may get 40 out of this thing. Still 2 hours of an unabated sun to go, that still offers some heat - ... don't worry winter folk, the solar min starts in 9 days. heh. Damage(edit typo lol) Same here 29-64 so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 The weather looks downright hot coming up. Late summer type stuff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 heh KCON GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/30/2022 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SUN 30| MON 31| TUE 01| WED 02| THU 03| FRI 04| SAT 05| SUN 06 CLIMO X/N 65| 30 67| 46 65| 45 67| 36 58| 37 64| 42 65| 48 63 31 52 TMP 48| 36 55| 50 56| 49 53| 39 47| 41 53| 46 56| 52 53 DPT 36| 33 47| 49 53| 46 45| 37 40| 38 45| 44 51| 49 47 CLD CL| CL PC| OV OV| PC CL| CL CL| PC CL| PC PC| OV PC WND 4| 1 7| 2 5| 3 7| 3 5| 2 7| 4 7| 5 12 P12 0| 0 3| 19 22| 10 2| 7 10| 14 14| 23 22| 24 19 22 21 P24 | 3| 32| 10| 10| 20| 23| 36 32 Q12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 | Q24 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 0| 0 0| 2 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1 T24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 PZP 1| 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 2 1| 0 0 PSN 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 1 1| 0 0| 7 3 PRS 4| 3 0| 1 0| 1 1| 1 1| 1 1| 2 1| 2 1 TYP R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R SNW | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: heh KCON GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/30/2022 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SUN 30| MON 31| TUE 01| WED 02| THU 03| FRI 04| SAT 05| SUN 06 CLIMO X/N 65| 30 67| 46 65| 45 67| 36 58| 37 64| 42 65| 48 63 31 52 TMP 48| 36 55| 50 56| 49 53| 39 47| 41 53| 46 56| 52 53 DPT 36| 33 47| 49 53| 46 45| 37 40| 38 45| 44 51| 49 47 CLD CL| CL PC| OV OV| PC CL| CL CL| PC CL| PC PC| OV PC WND 4| 1 7| 2 5| 3 7| 3 5| 2 7| 4 7| 5 12 P12 0| 0 3| 19 22| 10 2| 7 10| 14 14| 23 22| 24 19 22 21 P24 | 3| 32| 10| 10| 20| 23| 36 32 Q12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 | Q24 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 0| 0 0| 2 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1 T24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 PZP 1| 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 2 1| 0 0 PSN 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 1 1| 0 0| 7 3 PRS 4| 3 0| 1 0| 1 1| 1 1| 1 1| 2 1| 2 1 TYP R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R SNW | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | unfortunate aspect about Novie warmth in that particular product is that climatology will destroy it before the numbers hit the output file - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 Heh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh Snower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snower Hm... I think you meant, 'slower' so it can be a Snower' It's a lala fantasy but just for sake of discussion, that would end around miss SNE and clobber Maine most likely there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hm... I think you meant, 'slower' so it can be a Snower' It's a lala fantasy but just for sake of discussion, that would end around miss SNE and clobber Maine most likely there - Might as well get the bridge jumping season off to an early start.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Not until the heart of winter on 2/10. My man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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