Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: He’s gone! We can get 3 great younger players for that price anyways. I can’t find the link to your winter outlook? He’s not gone lol. They’ve already insinuated part of the package is making him captain, He’ s the modern day Jeter, Take less money but become captain and still become highest paid player in MLB. Non mlb fans dont get it 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 It’s all they’re fixing…? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like we upgrade GFS on 11/29. I got this from a former coworker. One thing to note: "The GFS overestimates the accumulated snow depth for mixed precipitation events with marginal temperatures and underpredicts for events with very cold temperatures. The undesired snow depth predictions are associated with GFDL microphysics and the improper density used in the land surface model for different frozen precipitation types. In this upgrade, the land surface model is addressed first by providing proper density to various frozen hydrometeors." https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0.pdf Neat! I found this to be notable as well: "The upgrades in the data assimilation system are accomplished by improving the use of existing observations, adding newly available observations, enhancing Near Sea Surface temperature (NSST) analysis, and bug fixes." One of the data assimilation items on there was increased input of high latitude wind data from satellites. Wonder if that might help with the winter storm forecasts with those waves that roll out of northwest Canada that we are always waiting to be "sampled"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: How can it morph into a more wintry look? Is that what you're saying? Devils advocate is doing the opposite of what most people tend to hope for or see , I think after we all wait 9 months for winter To appear after we endure boring summer /fall weather ..it’s hard to not be A bit biased to see what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Devils advocate is doing the opposite of what most people tend to hope for or see , I think after we all wait 9 months for winter To appear after we endure boring summer /fall weather ..it’s hard to not be A bit biased to see what we want LOL, I know...your wording didn't jive with me. Anyways, I think Will covered it. If that ridge in the Pacific gets the Kid 'N Play chopped off haircut, we may be in trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Neat! I found this to be notable as well: "The upgrades in the data assimilation system are accomplished by improving the use of existing observations, adding newly available observations, enhancing Near Sea Surface temperature (NSST) analysis, and bug fixes." One of the data assimilation items on there was increased input of high latitude wind data from satellites. Wonder if that might help with the winter storm forecasts with those waves that roll out of northwest Canada that we are always waiting to be "sampled"... It might… but probably wouldn’t offer the bigger corrections we used to sort of pretend we werent hoping to see. Ha I think they’re at a point with the technology/assimilation techniques where that kind of correction is a thing of the past. Something I’ve been monitoring since - really the last big correction that was the Boxing Day storm - i’m not seeing the correction tendencies that we used to re systems <—84 to 120 hour frames since 2010 and the new GFS version regularity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Devils advocate is doing the opposite of what most people tend to hope for or see , I think after we all wait 9 months for winter To appear after we endure boring summer /fall weather ..it’s hard to not be A bit biased to see what we want Devil's advocate is easy to play 5-6 weeks out too because model guidance isn't very skilled at that range.....almost anything can happen. There could be a massive pig over AK that the models don't see right now. But all else equal we'd rather not have the weeklies show it even if they aren't very skilled 5 weeks out. At least the more skilled ensembles at 2 weeks out show no sign of a terrible N PAC pattern which I think is the first thing you'd want to eliminate if you are trying to avoid a disaster (a la Dec 2011, 2015, etc) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Well who knows what happens in latter November. I would’ve thought a week ago more favorably but I’m starting to have my doubts. These recent seasonal entry trends favor the early cold snap and a chance of snow but I think we’re kind of getting through that by dodging the bullet this year Beyond which … I mean there’s always random chance for pattern modulations that are just anomalies couched inside of longer-term anomalies, and all that confusion. Otherwise, what I’m looking at oer the next two weeks …we don’t really have have much chance of seeing any kind of wintry weather without some kind of seriously out of left field things interceding. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well who knows what happens in latter November. I would’ve thought a week ago more favorably but I’m starting to have my doubts. These recent seasonal entry trends favor the early cold snap and a chance of snow but I think we’re kind of getting through that by dodging the bullet this year Beyond which … I mean there’s always random chance for pattern modulations that are just anomalies couched inside of longer-term anomalies, and all that confusion. Otherwise, what I’m looking at oer the next two weeks …we don’t really have have much chance of seeing any kind of wintry weather without some kind of seriously out of left field things interceding. Next two weeks will be pretty mild overall for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Devil's advocate is easy to play 5-6 weeks out too because model guidance isn't very skilled at that range.....almost anything can happen. There could be a massive pig over AK that the models don't see right now. But all else equal we'd rather not have the weeklies show it even if they aren't very skilled 5 weeks out. At least the more skilled ensembles at 2 weeks out show no sign of a terrible N PAC pattern which I think is the first thing you'd want to eliminate if you are trying to avoid a disaster (a la Dec 2011, 2015, etc) The 0z 840 HR GEFS looks a lot better than the CFS weeklies in the mid-to-late November time frame. The CFS looked a lot better last week. (Going by what's available on Tropical Tidbits). Interesting to see the differences between the two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s not gone lol. They’ve already insinuated part of the package is making him captain, He’ s the modern day Jeter, Take less money but become captain and still become highest paid player in MLB. Non mlb fans dont get it The upcoming warm weather pattern is already getting to you... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 I thought the end of the EPS, looked even better. At least so far over the last few days we are moving forward, not backwards. Hopefully that continues, but sometimes it does not. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 It looks like there are some wheels in motion to lead to a pattern change later on in November... mainly the development of an +EAMT, a flip to +AAM, and hints of Scandinavian ridging. First off, the +EAMT: There is pretty good model agreement on anomalously strong HP moving over Mongolia and the rest of east Asia, which helps lead to a +EAMT. +EAMT events often lead to an extension of the Pacific jet and subsequent poleward ridging around Alaska. This is bolstered by the shift to +AAM in the tropics, which often builds poleward and encourages blocking a few weeks down the line... Scandinavian ridging is also beginning to show up on both the GEFS and EPS in the extended range. This can both help to disrupt the SPV, which is a possibility, but this shouldn't impact the pattern too much unless it couples with the troposphere. Also, notice the beginnings of an Aleutian low beginning to form - this is a result of the Pacific jet extension after the +EAMT begins to form. However, what's more important is that ridging in this area tends to retrograde towards Greenland like so: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/7/jcli-d-19-0447.1.xml So, although the pattern to open the month will be very warm and quiet (enjoy the great weather!), I expect a flip to colder and more active weather around Thanksgiving once all of these pattern drivers really take shape, mainly with the Pacific jet extension around two weeks from now. The Scandinavian ridging often takes longer to retrograde. We want to see these signals move forward in time. The analogs that some have proposed for this winter also featured blocking early on (2000-01, 2020-21, 2010-11), so it's nice to see some pattern drivers support it! We shall see. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Well who knows what happens in latter November. I would’ve thought a week ago more favorably but I’m starting to have my doubts. These recent seasonal entry trends favor the early cold snap and a chance of snow but I think we’re kind of getting through that by dodging the bullet this year Beyond which … I mean there’s always random chance for pattern modulations that are just anomalies couched inside of longer-term anomalies, and all that confusion. Otherwise, what I’m looking at oer the next two weeks …we don’t really have have much chance of seeing any kind of wintry weather without some kind of seriously out of left field things interceding. Why does it feel like we'll be having the same discussion in Dec?Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, I know...your wording didn't jive with me. Anyways, I think Will covered it. If that ridge in the Pacific gets the Kid 'N Play chopped off haircut, we may be in trouble. Ya his wording was F’d up…I couldn’t understand it either what he was trying to say. It wasn’t expressed clearly at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 I know people talk about fat squirrels but how about fat porcupines up in a tree.. took this at the orange ma walmart 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya his wording was F’d up…I couldn’t understand it either what he was trying to say. It wasn’t expressed clearly at all. I got it, he just wanted to know what we don't want to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Just picked . Growing season thru Nov? 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just picked . Growing season thru Nov? Crazy your still getting stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 25 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I got it, he just wanted to know what we don't want to see. Ya, some got it. You and Will(Scott and I were like what?) were good decoders, but it wasn’t worded well. I actually thought he was trying to say, how could this upcoming warm spell, go wrong and turn cold. But it’s all good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just picked . Growing season thru Nov? Ya that’s been over(growing season) here for a couple weeks at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya that’s been over(growing season) here for a couple weeks at least. I think the only places in NE still not growing are Dendy area, Dryslot area.. and much of Maine outside of Portland area, Freaks area.. and Spanks in Southbury who lives below sea level with sand radiation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just picked . Growing season thru Nov? You know its been a special one when the hills of Tolland are still picking... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just picked . Growing season thru Nov? Wow you aren't joking about not getting cold at night. That's crazy. 31F here and 30/27 at MVL already tonight. Going to be a cold one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Wow you aren't joking about not getting cold at night. That's crazy. 31F here and 30/27 at MVL already tonight. Going to be a cold one. I don’t foresee freeze here until post Tgiving . Nov is furnaced and warm Nov’s prove hideous for ensuing winters. No matter how much “research “ Ray does. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t foresee freeze here until post Tgiving . Nov is furnaced and warm Nov’s prove hideous for ensuing winters. No matter how much “research “ Ray does. It looks quite mild into mid-month, for sure. Going to be a slow start to the ski season but plenty of time before Thanksgiving for things to change by the second half of the month being 2+ weeks away. It won't happen fast but hopefully after two weeks we can see distinct signs of an upcoming change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It looks quite mild into mid-month, for sure. Going to be a slow start to the ski season but plenty of time before Thanksgiving for things to change by the second half of the month being 2+ weeks away. It won't happen fast but hopefully after two weeks we can see distinct signs of an upcoming change. Kevins do the reverse psychology thing again, sometimes it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 It does make me think we were pretty "lucky" (?) I guess climatologically to pull off that sneaky 1-2" on the mountain back on October 8th I think it was. That got the true first accumulation on the books, with good flakes into the base area... but without that, Mansfield might have been on a more noteworthy streak deep into November looking for it's first whitening. Kind of funny it can go a month+ without seeing flakes fly again after the first event rolls through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 34 at MWN. Fake as Fuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 34 at MWN. Fake as Fuck. Lol same as here on the coast, 33.6F. --- Growing season is a relative term for us. We picked 40 lbs of unripened tomatoes before the first frost on 10/9. Of that about 10 lbs are left to ripen or process. Picked a pint of raspberries yesterday from cold hearty, late season variety plants. Lettuce and spinach ready to harvest in the cold tunnel, and will reseed after for a harvest in March or April. Plus carrots to pull in late Novie, to be replaced with garlic bulbs for next year. This all on 1/4" acre in suburbia with ample room for accurate snow measurement. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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