40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: IF we keep the PV on our side of the globe, then it will probably be pretty cold if eventually develop a -EPO/-AO combo....even if PNA is negative. Depends how negative, and also how stretched the PV is and in which direction.....these are the nuances that make ostensibly comparable analogs have relatively drastically different sensible weather impacts. I am still very early on and haven't really looked at the pattern much yet, so keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, over. The -PNA will be persistent. It doesn't mean torch the whole time, but for a more wintry look this will take time. We see this every year. Congrats Rockies into Canada for now. Yep until the week of Novie 25th. I would expect some good snows in the NNE ski areas by then. Then the natural progression south. I think after spending time looking at a lot of different information from different sources this December should offer a bunch of chances. Of course the coast is last. Good times in here as the inland folks hang on rain snow lines like Aroldis Chapman hangs curveballs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Also want to be careful in overplaying the PNA correlation....we all have PTSD from like a -4 sigma PNA last December, but that is an outlier. Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Depends how negative, and also how stretched the PV is and in which direction.....these are the nuances that make ostensibly comparable analogs have relatively drastically different sensible weather impacts. I am still very early on and haven't really looked at the pattern much yet, so keep that in mind. Yes, great post. It will be nothing like last December...let me be clear on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yep until the week of Novie 25th. I would expect some good snows in the NNE ski areas by then. Then the natural progression south. I think after spending time looking at a lot of different information from different sources this December should offer a bunch of chances. Of course the coast is last. Good times in here as the inland folks hang on rain snow lines like Aroldis Chapman hangs curveballs. Lets get that RNA out of here faster than Judge leaving the Bronx this winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lets get that RNA out of here faster than Judge leaving the Bronx this winter. LOL, just keep it more positively tilted so that when the AO hopefully drops...it squishes cold to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, just keep it more positively tilted so that when the AO hopefully drops...it squishes cold to the south. I am beginning to grow kind of conflicted because I am not buying all of what my sensible analogs are selling, despite how well they have worked this fall. I think I am going to modify them at certain points of the season by stressing analogs that I feel as though the sensible result will most closely resemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, just keep it more positively tilted so that when the AO hopefully drops...it squishes cold to the south. Make sure the Aleutian ridge is strongly poleward....that seems to do the best job in pushing the good stuff south. LAst year, we had a pretty flat Aleutian ridge in December which probably didn't help with that huge -PNA. That was actually one of the bigger differences between last year and a month like Dec 1970 which also had a very negative PNA. You don't like to see those lower heights north of AK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Make sure the Aleutian ridge is strongly poleward....that seems to do the best job in pushing the good stuff south. LAst year, we had a pretty flat Aleutian ridge in December which probably didn't help with that huge -PNA. That was actually one of the bigger differences between last year and a month like Dec 1970 which also had a very negative PNA. You don't like to see those lower heights north of AK. This is where the eastward trend in la nina over the past month comes into play....it helps IMO. I don't expect that to change BC those trades are dying, and the western subsurface is warming. Although the eastern zones have certainly peaked... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lets get that RNA out of here faster than Judge leaving the Bronx this winter. Zero chance of him leaving lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Zero chance of him leaving lol Strange that he unfollowed the Yanks on Twitter...maybe aggressive posturing in negotiations? I know none of the players were thrilled with him getting booed in the PS after hitting 62HRs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Let’s play devils advocate, how can this look morph into a torchy look (since 95%?obviously Hope it does this or that) to turn wintery 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Strange that he unfollowed the Yanks on Twitter...maybe aggressive posturing in negotiations? I know none of the players were thrilled with him getting booed in the PS after hitting 62HRs. He gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Let’s play devils advocate, how can this look morph into a torchy look (since 95%?obviously Hope it does this or that) to turn wintery How can it morph into a more wintry look? Is that what you're saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: How can it morph into a more wintry look? Is that what you're saying? I read it as he’s wondering what can go wrong so the pattern change doesn’t come… and it’s torchy into December? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 can someone hit 80 during this stretch? 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Just now, powderfreak said: I read it as he’s wondering what can go wrong so the pattern change doesn’t come… and it’s torchy into December? I thought that as well. I think he lifted and not enough blood flowing to the brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: can someone hit 80 during this stretch? Montreal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Let’s play devils advocate, how can this look morph into a torchy look (since 95%?obviously Hope it does this or that) to turn wintery Flatter AK/Aleutian ridge and deep -PNA would do the trick for torch lovers I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Looked at similar correlation maps as Will last night. Let's go!. First year in many I delved deep into the rabbit hole that is LR forecasting. Casting the voodoo aside its my opinion only based on too much time doing research, ( recovering from the vid) that there exists an initial 6 to 8 week period of snow threats. At least it won't be as boring as it has been. Truly am pumped for Dec which rarely happens. I like my chances usually late Dec to Mid Feb but after all is said and done I think Dec has a great chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Strange that he unfollowed the Yanks on Twitter...maybe aggressive posturing in negotiations? I know none of the players were thrilled with him getting booed in the PS after hitting 62HRs. That was fake news. Jeter said it best when we stink we should get booed. Shit I remember Mantle getting booed. Such soft peeps these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Strange that he unfollowed the Yanks on Twitter...maybe aggressive posturing in negotiations? I know none of the players were thrilled with him getting booed in the PS after hitting 62HRs. He’s gone! We can get 3 great younger players for that price anyways. I can’t find the link to your winter outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: He’s gone! We can get 3 great younger players for that price anyways. I can’t find the link to your winter outlook? I couldn’t care less how they spend the money. Put the best team on the field as possible, “overspend” if they need to. So give me Judge. Too often fans care too much about player contracts as if they are playing GM from their couch. I want the best product on the field, that’s it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 40 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: He’s gone! We can get 3 great younger players for that price anyways. I can’t find the link to your winter outlook? Not done until late next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That was fake news. Jeter said it best when we stink we should get booed. Shit I remember Mantle getting booed. Such soft peeps these days. I agree. I thought it was soft if he was pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Feels like spring out on Pt Judith RI.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 45F in the valley, has that cool/crisp vibe despite full sun. Frost still in the deeper shaded spots from the dry air. Shade still feels cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Strange that he unfollowed the Yanks on Twitter...maybe aggressive posturing in negotiations? I know none of the players were thrilled with him getting booed in the PS after hitting 62HRs. They’re going to name him captain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They’re going to name him captain and touch him in appropriately in pinestripe lingerie Well, that should get 'er done. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Looks like we upgrade GFS on 11/29. I got this from a former coworker. One thing to note: "The GFS overestimates the accumulated snow depth for mixed precipitation events with marginal temperatures and underpredicts for events with very cold temperatures. The undesired snow depth predictions are associated with GFDL microphysics and the improper density used in the land surface model for different frozen precipitation types. In this upgrade, the land surface model is addressed first by providing proper density to various frozen hydrometeors." https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0.pdf 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 BTW, GFS looks to be nailing the relatively dry Halloween when the euro soaked us yesterday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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