CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Saturday night will be the king of all fakeness. Kevin will be jogging in shorts, while Bob and Brett chiseling out their cars from frost. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 embrace the fake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Head faked this morning too, 31.1°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Days and days of torch. Skeletal remains of Dryslot found in deer tree stand in a Carhartt jacket because of lack of deer movement? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s not fake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Crisp morning. BTV got their first freeze, ha. That’s when you know it’s not really fake when torch Island there gets below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Days and days of torch. Skeletal remains of Dryslot found in deer tree stand in a Carhartt jacket because of lack of deer movement? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Crisp morning. BTV got their first freeze, ha. That’s when you know it’s not really fake when torch Island there gets below freezing. It’s a decent shot up north. Lower thicknesses there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Days and days of torch. Skeletal remains of Dryslot found in deer tree stand in a Carhartt jacket because of lack of deer movement? This old man don't climb tree stands, I'll end up falling asleep in the sun and miss them walking by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: This old man don't climb tree stands, I'll end up falling asleep in the sun and miss them walking by. I almost hit two of those dummies this morning going to the gym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 48 minutes ago, dryslot said: Head faked this morning too, 31.1°F 33.1F. coldest yet. Looks like any hard frost or freeze will be quite late this year. Called the marina earlier in the week and they still haven't winterized boat and it's going into the 20s tonight. Probably 29-30F right at the water which is where the boat is sitting. It'll be ok, but c'mon man get it done already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 15 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies say rushed. Weeklies were pretty cold by late Nov/early Dec....that was nice to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Weeklies were pretty cold by late Nov/early Dec....that was nice to see. I just saw weeks 5 and 6. That would work. Obviously the typical caveats apply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Weeklies were pretty cold by late Nov/early Dec....that was nice to see. Actually the newer run from yesterday was a little warmer, but it's ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 The EPS were starting to raise the -PNA from the cellar at the end of the run. Also that Scandi ridging and the -EPO is keeping the PV on our side. That will refrigerate Canada and one would think we'll see successive colder shots into the CONUS later November into December with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s a decent shot up north. Lower thicknesses there. Yeah it wasn’t the like 27F in the valleys while it’s 42F at BTV and on the peaks. Everyone was below freezing at all elevations and topography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I almost hit two of those dummies this morning going to the gym. Yup, Had 5 deer cross in front of me monday night around 6:30, Stopped and let them go and i said i'm going to wait a few more seconds and sure enough, Another ones comes across so i would have hit that one if i would have just taken off after the 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Days and days of torch. Skeletal remains of Dryslot found in deer tree stand in a Carhartt jacket because of lack of deer movement? Deer moved last night and this morning. They know whats up. Cameras were wild last night. Orgies in the woods. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 50 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 33.1F. coldest yet. Looks like any hard frost or freeze will be quite late this year. Called the marina earlier in the week and they still haven't winterized boat and it's going into the 20s tonight. Probably 29-30F right at the water which is where the boat is sitting. It'll be ok, but c'mon man get it done already Interesting, we bottomed out at 36, usually we have opposite results at this time of year. We had our first frost and first freeze on the same day, 10/9. My buddy has a boat in PWM and all I hear from him is how much the marina drags their feet every spring and fall. They seem to operate on their own schedule with no care or communication. Ball's in their court and they know it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: 27F outside right now at 750ft and 29F at 1500ft. Pretty uniform radiational night. Mansfield summit was 25F for a low but looks to be ticking up again. PWS around town at all elevations ranging 26F to 29F, pretty deep boundary layer with 20s in lowest 5,000ft, no skim cooling while it’s warm just off the deck. LOL at 19F at SLK. Might be close to that tomorrow morning, here at the fake-cold factory. Maybe get the deer moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just saw weeks 5 and 6. That would work. Obviously the typical caveats apply. The change will be complete by Nov 25. The timing this year will be sweet. Storms and rumors of storms. Embrace the warmth and enjoy it. Huge EPO drop, expected recurving Typhoon, reset of Hemispheric pattern. Neg EPO , raising PNA falling AO NAO. If as usual models eventually catch up to the teleconnections depth of change the pattern will be loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The change will be complete by Nov 25. The timing this year will be sweet. Storms and rumors of storms. Embrace the warmth and enjoy it. I'll take the over on that. Hopefully ready after first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, tamarack said: Might be close to that tomorrow morning, here at the fake-cold factory. Maybe get the deer moving. Deer flying around this morning being spooked by something. Counted 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take the over on that. Hopefully ready after first week of December. . Huge EPO drop, expected recurving Typhoon, reset of Hemispheric pattern. Neg EPO , raising PNA falling AO NAO. If as usual models eventually catch up to the teleconnections depth of change the pattern will be loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yeah, over. The -PNA will be persistent. It doesn't mean torch the whole time, but for a more wintry look this will take time. We see this every year. Congrats Rockies into Canada for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, over. The -PNA will be persistent. It doesn't mean torch the whole time, but for a more wintry look this will take time. We see this every year. Congrats Rockies into Canada for now. I don't doubt a break early in the month, but I think the -PNA will keep the real cold in check throughout December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take the over on that. Hopefully ready after first week of December. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't doubt a break early in the month, but I think the -PNA will keep the real cold in check throughout December. This isn't to say a torch...or "sell December"....not what I mean. It can still snow, but I just don't expect an icebox. I think we will need the NAO to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 IF we keep the PV on our side of the globe, then it will probably be pretty cold if eventually develop a -EPO/-AO combo....even if PNA is negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Also want to be careful in overplaying the PNA correlation....we all have PTSD from like a -4 sigma PNA last December, but that is an outlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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