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October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, its frustrating for me because its just kept trending warmer....my Novie composite initially looked great last week. I need the warmth centered in the N plains for November. 

Something tells me the change will get pushed back a decent amount, too.

It's more your classic Nina look now for the time being. However, piggy is gone at the end of the ensembles....but it's too early for Canada to be refrigerated and have that ooze into the NE US. If this holds, I would expect that to rapidly occur in early December.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's more your classic Nina look now for the time being. However, piggy is gone at the end of the ensembles....but it's too early for Canada to be refrigerated and have that ooze into the NE US. If this holds, I would expect that to rapidly occur in early December.

Yea, I don't think December will be frigid, but it should be good enough for at least a parts of the area.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Just enjoy the nice weather at this point…the rubber band will snap back, and just maybe we’ll time it right.  For now it’s going to be a nice stretch, nothing wrong with that at this juncture. 

Yeah nothing we can do about it, so might as well enjoy it.  It could be 43F and raining every day.  Not sure how that’s “better.”

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah nothing we can do about it, so might as well enjoy it.  It could be 43F and raining every day.  Not sure how that’s “better.”

These past 4 days were brutal. Coincidentally, I heard Alice In Chains "Nutshell" one of their greatest songs ever.....but as I looked out into the pea soup fog, it made me want to sit back with a needle in my arm. A terrible stretch of wx. 

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45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah nothing we can do about it, so might as well enjoy it.  It could be 43F and raining every day.  Not sure how that’s “better.”

Agreed. It’s gonna be nice, so just enjoy it now. Too early for winter weather anyway for most all of us.  As Scott said, tomorrow and Saturday gonna be cool and autumn like, then it milds up for a while. We take and enjoy and wait for things to evolve…at the opportune time. 

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44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These past 4 days were brutal. Coincidentally, I heard Alice In Chains "Nutshell" one of their greatest songs ever.....but as I looked out into the pea soup fog, it made me want to sit back with a needle in my arm. A terrible stretch of wx. 

I forgot you guys just rained for days.  We had low clouds but it was mostly dry and a few sunny breaks at times.

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Event total 1.15", bringing October to 6.41" which is 3/4" AN and the wettest month here since Oct 2019.  Yesterday's temp of 61/57 was +18 and that low is milder than late July peak summer, 55-56°.  Driving home last evening I saw a frog hopping across the road, just like in July.  Five years ago we had 63/58 on 10/25 during a 3-day 4.5" downpour that included thunder.  Late October warm rains seem fairly common here.

CAA coming in on 30+ gusts, though the thermometer hasn't felt it yet.  Possible sub-20 for Saturday's Maine residents' deer opener?

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29 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Dude...That's some mid-Atlantic delayed sh.it right there. 

 

Well to be fair, he's in a town right along LI sound....if you are in a spot around there that doesn't radiate well, it's probably one of the warmest climates in all of New England.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well to be fair, he's in a town right along LI sound....if you are in a spot around there that doesn't radiate well, it's probably one of the warmest climates in all of New England.

How much later do the leaves come out there in the spring compared to inland areas? 

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Just now, roardog said:

How much later do the leaves come out there in the spring compared to inland areas? 

I don't think it's later there if at all....LI sound warms pretty fast. Further out east like on the Cape (and even S RI where's more exposed to open ocean) is a different story. But probably the only areas that would leaf-out sooner than the CT south coast are urban areas in the CT River Valley that don't radiate and perhaps similar urban areas near PVD.

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Here's a map I just found of average leafout dates.....dark blue is the earliest while the yellows/reds are much later. You can see how late the Cape is (on par with NNE mountains) but areas further west on the south coast in CT are not.

 

 

AvgleafoutNewEngland.png

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's a map I just found of average leafout dates.....dark blue is the earliest while the yellows/reds are much later. You can see how late the Cape is (on par with NNE mountains) but areas further west on the south coast in CT are not.

 

 

AvgleafoutNewEngland.png

Man that’s nuts how late the cape is 

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well to be fair, he's in a town right along LI sound....if you are in a spot around there that doesn't radiate well, it's probably one of the warmest climates in all of New England.

Thank you. He’s in his own lil microclimate(lil Havana) there for sure.  He hasn’t even had a frost yet…while those of us Northeast of him have had 4-5 frosts. Certainly not representative of most of his inland statesman that’s for sure.  But good got him there in the tropics. 

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Finally some much needed sunshine after 5 days. This past week smacked of a classic warm season "cosmic dildo" event as Tip likes to say. Ridge trying to build in the east gets kneecapped by Atlantic crud which rots for days over the coastal plain before the ridge finally breaks down and the surface front clears it out. Meanwhile those locations to the west of the coastal plain divide torch with sunshine and unseasonable warmth. It did feel like a borderline tropical airmass with dewpoints in the 60s the last few days. Interestingly enough, the lows at IZG during this timeframe have been warmer than the lows back in the Phoenix area with the large trough that's taken over the western half of the country.

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well to be fair, he's in a town right along LI sound....if you are in a spot around there that doesn't radiate well, it's probably one of the warmest climates in all of New England.

I'm not sure on the date but a large section of coastal CT was reclassified to plant hardiness zone 7a. I also read that the same area is pretty much part of climate zone 4 now.

 

connecticut_map_lg (2).gif

IECCmap_Revised.jpg

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1 hour ago, BrianW said:

I'm not sure on the date but a large section of coastal CT was reclassified to plant hardiness zone 7a. I also read that the same area is pretty much part of climate zone 4 now.

 

connecticut_map_lg (2).gif

IECCmap_Revised.jpg

Yeah that isn't surprising for the observation enthusiast. Anywhere along that south coast of CT that has trouble radiating is going to be a furnace relative to the rest of the New England climate zones. Obviously even just a little bit inland in spots that can radiate (or some of the elevated zones north of the Merritt) are a different ballgame.

 

 

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