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October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s fine by me…keep it mild for another couple weeks.  I remember November 2002 well…early part of month(first 10-12 days) it was 70 ir even a bit more a time or two, cuz we were out on my bike(Harley), and it felt like early September…2 weeks later it was snowing.  

Mild is fine but I hope it's not a harbinger of a crappy winter. 

The cooler October & mild November is very Nino like though. 

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To me looks to be mild overall into maybe 15-20th?? We'll have cool shots, but it is mostly out west into Plains that has best cold chances. We mow.

Weeklies don't get rid of the AK piggy until about mid-month.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it will take awhile. But the first half to me always seemed mild. 

Agreed and I'm totally good with it....I want the shift to a colder pattern (AK ridging and perhaps linking with +PNA) to wait until later November so we can actually take advantage of it better. Time it so that pattern peaks in sometime in December rather than 3 weeks earlier.

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17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We pay for it now ...and then hopefully, our purchase turns around as what could be the best weather in the geologic history of Octobers, Friday thru next Tuesday.    60 to start, 74 to finish, with almost no wind by Saturday onward, with 120 mi visibility.

2-meters look too cool for 558 to 563 hydrostats and 850s to 11C. 

All we have to do is make sure the GFS doesn't verify -

10/21-23/1979: 80s in SNE, upper 70s CAR/Fort Kent.  Also 10/24-27/1963, more SNE 80s and mid-70s in the far north (before 30-31 when the remains of Ginny dumped 12-20" up there and killed two people on Katahdin.)

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like a wet , rainy, muggy Helloween this year .

I miss the days growing up where they’d be cold , flurries flying some years.. and you’d have to worry about how many warm layers to wear under the costume . Now they’re just warm and dry or muggy and wet .

Halloween 2020 laughs... sub 30 temps  snow on the ground

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Our falls are much better than our springs. So much so that I'd take November's weather over May's, and that's especially true through mid Nov/May. Climo and event planners would strongly say otherwise though.  

More sun in May-days are now quite short and sun angle is low

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24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Halloween 2020 laughs... sub 30 temps  snow on the ground

Yeah my boys were trick or treating in the upper 20s and full snow cover 2 years ago, lol. That was ridiculous.

We should stay dry this year hopefully....rain holds off until the next day.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sounds like shorts straight thru Tgiving this year .. at least . 

I wouldn’t go that far…it could change fast come 2nd half of November.   
 

And regarding what Will said…we don’t want any decent pattern peaking before we are climatologically ready to take full advantage of it here in SNE…which means much closer to and into December, not first half of November. 

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34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed and I'm totally good with it....I want the shift to a colder pattern (AK ridging and perhaps linking with +PNA) to wait until later November so we can actually take advantage of it better. Time it so that pattern peaks in sometime in December rather than 3 weeks earlier.

Absolutely. :thumbsup:

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3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s fine by me…keep it mild for another couple weeks.  I remember November 2002 well…early part of month(first 10-12 days) it was 70 ir even a bit more a time or two, cuz we were out on my bike(Harley), and it felt like early September…2 weeks later it was snowing.  

It was a bit different here.  The first 8 days were cold, 10° BN and the 29° high at the Farmington co-op was the earliest sub-30 max on record, data back thru 1893.  That period also featured snowfalls of 3" and 5".  Nov 9-15 was mild, 7° AN with a max of 69, then 16-17 brought 7" of powder and the rest of the month was near the average until the cold returned on 28-30.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

10/21-23/1979: 80s in SNE, upper 70s CAR/Fort Kent.  Also 10/24-27/1963, more SNE 80s and mid-70s in the far north (before 30-31 when the remains of Ginny dumped 12-20" up there and killed two people on Katahdin.)

Heh. Yeah but that may be too warm.  
 

You know actually we had almost a week straight of 70s to near 80 after that snowfall two years ago Halloween in early November… I mean obviously theres hyperbole in the jest sentiment  …but certainly compared to what’s going on the last three days down here in dog shit kingdom if it got up to 71 on Sunday with full sun and light wind ? I think most would agree

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What a disaster over the west Atlantic into the coastal plain from the mid Atlantic all the way up… Clear and present cluster fuck – if there was ever a better description for a train wrecking the weather pattern that would be a neat trick. I mean it is just a gigantic morass of barotropic/baroclinic fragments, en masse, drifting to the northwest from over 1000 miles out. 
 

Anyone see the micro depression out there? It is kind of a neat feature

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Could a piggy still work if there's a good +PNA? 

Eh, not really....it can if the piggy isn't in the worst spot and not very deep. But typically a +EPO/+PNA pattern is not cold. You can time an event in that pattern, but you'd rather have at least some cross polar flow.

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