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October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
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Oaks are def ahead of schedule here. Maybe by like a week or so.
 

We’ve had a lot of ideal nights for color…you want those marginal frost/crisp cold nights but not full freeze which is what we’ve had here. The hard freeze will cause the leaves to just drop quicker but you don’t get as long a color show. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oaks are def ahead of schedule here. Maybe by like a week or so.
 

We’ve had a lot of ideal nights for color…you want those marginal frost/crisp cold nights but not full freeze which is what we’ve had here. The hard freeze will cause the leaves to just drop quicker but you don’t get as long a color show. 

Hard to get a bead on what the real full manifold of physical aspects lends to better or lower performing years.   I mean I'm not refuting anything your intimating there...  but, I just have heard/read more than once over the years that well hydrated, none thermally stressed foliage during gestation times, leads to better color autumns.

We experienced neither leading circumstance -

Or did we...?  I mean the spring was kind cool by human standards, but may have been ideal over the hill sides - not sure. But the summer went pretty hot and lest I risk bringing up the autistic preoccupation that goes on in this social media 'safe zone' (jesus-), yeah ...it was really really dry. (we fuckin get it)

We did get a 4-6" of rain rather suddenly in those last 10 days of August. Recall, we had a weird strung out coastal in there that rained pan-regionally to some 3.5". Then we had convection kick in, then a series of those front wall type slow moving cold frontal training rains..etc.. Despite the drought survey, the top 6 feet of earth and root, may have been given water just in time ?   heh... not likely - foliage is already set up by then.

This just seemed to defy conventional wisdom this year, and as such... shit leading parameters led to one of the more museum quality years I can remember.  Have to go back to the mid 1990s -

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Hell, how fat are the woolly bears and squirrels while we're at it. 

Maybe it all "means" something...  lol. 

I'm hoping we get 2015, ..but not just 3.5 weeks in February.   All three months!   And, not so much for getting to experience the coveted ... 550" winter ( haha, but who am kidding).   Rather, then to have the publications of NOAA/NASA have all three of those months be globally ranked like 3rd warmest winter ever, would be utterly priceless. 

It would all serve my hypothesis rather apropos, that we here between roughly Chicago and the Maritime of Canada, have a kind of enabled region here in the world, where we don't seem to suffer CC 'quite as phenomenally' as ... pretty much everywhere else.  Whether by virtue of the 'warmer relative to normal' occurring at night - look out!  Or consummately fielding scenarios that nick hot afternoons off their potential at least imaginable cause... Or getting stuck in a E wind scenario that isn't really BD related, but more a synoptic circumstance associated to CC changing the way the hemispheric mass fields distribute... We seem to live in a red-headed step child cold scapegoated region ...  Of all the vicissitudes of geologic evolutionary journey that preambled where we are in this present epoch of history, it was all preordaining that New England be dumpster.

To put the dart in the bullseye of this diatribe, maybe CC/global "warming" means 550" of snow here, too.  Nature doesn't give a shit how we experience anything. 

I'm being snarky/sarcastic there, but... it has impressed me upon more than a just a few occasions, how we leave a lot of heat on the table comparing to other areas of the world.   Maybe our dry summer was a way to get CC'ed monster in here ?  Yeeeeup... sure. I mean CC isn't just a temperature issue.  It f's everything up.  Meanwhile, we hide in cozy sentiments like, "CC can't explain specific event" ... yeeeeeah, but what that 'bargaining' tactic obviously does is evades the notion that if the climate numbers changed, that means the weather got fucked up - so if the climate continues to change, that just probably might mean the weather events that average to a climate will continue to ... wait for it. Screw up!  And in order to do that ... THE SPECIFIC EVENT IS EXPLAINED by climate change - that's just logic!

Can we stop applying the 'evasive denial tactic' please and start admitting that the freaks are happening because of CC. 

Tongue in cheek of course..

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oaks are def ahead of schedule here. Maybe by like a week or so.
 

We’ve had a lot of ideal nights for color…you want those marginal frost/crisp cold nights but not full freeze which is what we’ve had here. The hard freeze will cause the leaves to just drop quicker but you don’t get as long a color show. 

That was the case here.  We reached peak during the first few days of October but still had great color a week later.  Then the hard freezes of 10/9-12 had leaves rattling thru the branches even in calm air, and the RA/wind of 10/14 brought down nearly all the rest.  Now it's stick season with some brown leaves on oak and beech.  Overall, it was a fine display, with near normal to slightly early timing.

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Wow.. .up 25 at FIT.   Could be the biggest diurnal swing of the year.  There's MOS products with 68 there this afternoon.  Would be a 38 recovery should that take place.  

ASH is 27 up from 30... 57.

BED, up 24...  

Meanwhile, ORH was 41 this morning... BOS was 46...

I'm surprised we decoupled so proficiently last night.  I thought we had gotten on the top side of this narrow surface PP enough that a W/SW flow would keep us from doing so 'as much'. 

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18 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That was the case here.  We reached peak during the first few days of October but still had great color a week later.  Then the hard freezes of 10/9-12 had leaves rattling thru the branches even in calm air, and the RA/wind of 10/14 brought down nearly all the rest.  Now it's stick season with some brown leaves on oak and beech.  Overall, it was a fine display, with near normal to slightly early timing.

Those are among some of my favorite moments.   When you're standing there... with the sun just 10 or so degrees up over the horizon, ...essentially ground-parallel fracturing corpuscular rays knife through the trees if you look toward its direction.  Through a kind of translucence that isn't enough to call it fog; the air sets aglow.  And raining through the scene are flit sounds of cold-clipped leaves. 

I think that phenomenon happens because the cold was intense enough to freeze minute water lingering in the leaf stem - it expands 12% by volume and that expanse sort of hurries the leaf's destiny. The wind is dead call, but this fall mass, evidence by the littering of fresh leaves still having color pop directly under tree canopy, ....can rival the breeze deposition later that afternoon.  

It's interesting how nature has these 'back up plans' like that.  If a region is saddled with a stagnating pattern with low wind - not altogether uncommon during autumns, despite the onset of stormy season - eventually, the leaves are coming down to set the cycle of the next season into motion. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hard to get a bead on what the real full manifold of physical aspects lends to better or lower performing years.   I mean I'm not refuting anything your intimating there...  but, I just have heard/read more than once over the years that well hydrated, none thermally stressed foliage during gestation times, leads to better color autumns.

We experienced neither leading circumstance -

Or did we...?  I mean the spring was kind cool by human standards, but may have been ideal over the hill sides - not sure. But the summer went pretty hot and lest I risk bringing up the autistic preoccupation that goes on in this social media 'safe zone' (jesus-), yeah ...it was really really dry. (we fuckin get it)

We did get a 4-6" of rain rather suddenly in those last 10 days of August. Recall, we had a weird strung out coastal in there that rained pan-regionally to some 3.5". Then we had convection kick in, then a series of those front wall type slow moving cold frontal training rains..etc.. Despite the drought survey, the top 6 feet of earth and root, may have been given water just in time ?   heh... not likely - foliage is already set up by then.

This just seemed to defy conventional wisdom this year, and as such... shit leading parameters led to one of the more museum quality years I can remember.  Have to go back to the mid 1990s -

The typical recipe for good color is supposed to be decent rainfall in 2nd half of summer and then lots of sun and cool/crisp nights in September/early October. 
 

We had the nasty dry spell early this summer but as you said, we did start to fix that beginning in august so that might have been the key to good foliage this year. I do agree with you this year has been really good for foliage. Color seems exceptionally vibrant. 

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Fewer winter storm warnings for the Berkshires this winter?

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA 1017 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2022 ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE-BOSTON WILL TEST NEW EXPERIMENTAL WINTER STORM WARNING SNOWFALL CRITERIA FOR THIS SEASON... THIS WINTER, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN BOSTON/NORTON WILL SLIGHTLY MODIFY ITS WINTER STORM WARNING SNOWFALL CRITERIA. THIS CHANGE WILL AFFECT THE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND WILL ALIGN SNOWFALL CRITERIA FOR WINTER STORM WARNINGS MORE CLOSELY WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY-BASED IMPACTS. THERE WILL BE NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. PREVIOUSLY, WARNING DECISIONS WERE BASED ON CONSIDERATION OF 6 INCHES OCCURRING IN 12 HOURS AND THE EXPECTED IMPACTS. THE NEW CLIMATOLOGICALLY-BASED THRESHOLD IS CHANGING TO 7 INCHES FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES, BUT WE WILL STILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT EXPECTED IMPACTS WHEN MAKING A WARNING DECISION. THE ONLY ZONES IMPACTED ARE... WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY (UGC ZONE MAZ002)... 7 INCHES. WESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY (UGC ZONE MAZ008)... 7 INCHES WESTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY (UCG ZONE MAZ009)... 7 INCHES

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24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Few winter storm warnings for the Berkshires this winter?

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA 1017 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2022 ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE-BOSTON WILL TEST NEW EXPERIMENTAL WINTER STORM WARNING SNOWFALL CRITERIA FOR THIS SEASON... THIS WINTER, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN BOSTON/NORTON WILL SLIGHTLY MODIFY ITS WINTER STORM WARNING SNOWFALL CRITERIA. THIS CHANGE WILL AFFECT THE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND WILL ALIGN SNOWFALL CRITERIA FOR WINTER STORM WARNINGS MORE CLOSELY WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY-BASED IMPACTS. THERE WILL BE NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. PREVIOUSLY, WARNING DECISIONS WERE BASED ON CONSIDERATION OF 6 INCHES OCCURRING IN 12 HOURS AND THE EXPECTED IMPACTS. THE NEW CLIMATOLOGICALLY-BASED THRESHOLD IS CHANGING TO 7 INCHES FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES, BUT WE WILL STILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT EXPECTED IMPACTS WHEN MAKING A WARNING DECISION. THE ONLY ZONES IMPACTED ARE... WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY (UGC ZONE MAZ002)... 7 INCHES. WESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY (UGC ZONE MAZ008)... 7 INCHES WESTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY (UCG ZONE MAZ009)... 7 INCHES

Maybe more?? ;)

I'm excited to go 8 for the mountains up here. And we ditch the silly 12 or 24 hour criteria distinction. 

The idea was to come up with criteria that more or less averaged out to about 4 or 5 warnings per year in each zone. 

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