40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Most of the literature points to more extremes on the whole....but it's not evenly distributed. We will see less extreme cold going forward but more extreme heatwaves, more extreme flooding events (and by precip proxy maybe some more extreme snow events). The spacial distribution isn't very well-known either. Non-temperature attribution studies are generally some of the least confident in the science. There are the two key take aways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully rubber band snaps on the boring wx sometime next month and into winter. At least that arid stretch seems to be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: People have arguments in each direction, like with everything else in life. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least that arid stretch seems to be over. Yeah I’m actually cautiously optimistic that means a more active pattern going forward into winter. We typically don’t have long stretches of dryness here. I remember we had some really long dry stretches in late summer and early fall 2007 before it seemed to snap and we had that crazy active pattern go right into winter. Fingers crossed for something similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Wouldn't CC lead to less extreme weather given weather is a combination of gradients and temperature extremes. If the whole world warms then things should be more uniform. 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Most of the literature points to more extremes on the whole....but it's not evenly distributed. We will see less extreme cold going forward but more extreme heatwaves, more extreme flooding events (and by precip proxy maybe some more extreme snow events). The spacial distribution isn't very well-known either. Non-temperature attribution studies are generally some of the least confident in the science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I’m actually cautiously optimistic that means a more active pattern going forward into winter. We typically don’t have long stretches of dryness here. I remember we had some really long dry stretches in late summer and early fall 2007 before it seemed to snap and we had that crazy active pattern go right into winter. Fingers crossed for something similar. Cosgrove is full steam ahead on your idea....active like '92-'93, '93-'94. My analogs keep it fairly dry, but I'm not sure I buy that due to all of the water vapor after that volcano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 Analogs a great tool, but at the end of the day, a forecaster's intuition and instinct is often just as good with respect to seasonal forecasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Cosgrove is full steam ahead on your idea....active like '92-'93, '93-'94. My analogs keep it fairly dry, but I'm not sure I buy that due to all of the water vapor after that volcano. Man you love that guy. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 Ha, I was thinking about 2007 the other day....it was a very dry Fall before I sat in my car for over 8 hrs on 93. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Not here, every tree I cut the yellow jackets come around. Not sure what they're after in the wood. Only happens in the fall. Sap I assume? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 Expect to hear the STJ term thrown about this winter. Gonna be a wet one. White or wet be the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Expect to hear the STJ term thrown about this winter. Gonna be a wet one. White or wet be the question Scrolls from 1612 tell you this? Moon? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 In the end it can’t be both ways(more extreme and more benign), that’s how you know some are agenda driven lol. And 40-50 yrs from now when everything starts to cool…then what??? Lmao. There have been so many incorrect ideas about this the last 30-40’yrs…its downright laughable. Hard to take anything seriously at all. I really don’t care what folks believe or think(to each their own). All I know is, it’s gonna continue to snow here and get cold here for the next 100 plus years, and that’s all that really matters to me. If we get more extreme events(snow or others that’s cool too) After that it’s anybodys guess. We’ll all be dead and gone…and it won’t matter for us any longer. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: In the end it can’t be both ways(more extreme and more benign), that’s how you know some are agenda driven lol. And 40-50 yrs from now when everything starts to cool…then what??? Lmao. There have been so many incorrect ideas about this the last 30-40’yrs…its downright laughable. Hard to take anything seriously at all. I really don’t care what folks believe or think(to each their own). All I know is, it’s gonna continue to snow here and get cold here for the next 100 plus years, and that’s all that really matters to me. If we get more extreme events(snow or others that’s cool too) After that it’s anybodys guess. We’ll all be dead and gone…and it won’t matter for us any longer. Agreed. And to think some people also think the world is round, the "Round Earthers" as we call them. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Wouldn't CC lead to less extreme weather given weather is a combination of gradients and temperature extremes. If the whole world warms then things should be more uniform. The high latitudes are warming fastest, at least in the N. Hemisphere, which does reduce temp gradient. That's probably overcome by the greater energy in warmer oceans/atmosphere. Barely got below 50 this morning as clouds/fog hung tough. Not often will my frost pocket have a morning low about 20° milder than in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Scrolls from 1612 tell you this? Moon? Huge contrast in Pac water temps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man you love that guy. Lol Honestly, after following him over the course of the past several years, he has been the best and its not close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Huge contrast in Pac water temps. Yea, LC is all about the STJ this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Tamarack reinstalled? Last time we installed was probably in 2013, and with the heat pump in place, we'll never need to do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You radiate really well over there neighbor. sure do....It was already 33.3° when I turned the Phillies game off last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Honestly, after following him over the course of the past several years, he has been the best and its not close. What about Dick Tolleris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What about Dick Tolleris? He is very vague in his seasonal pieces....he just lays the pieces out and hedges, but never really issues a forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, I was thinking about 2007 the other day....it was a very dry Fall before I sat in my car for over 8 hrs on 93. We had a legit threat like every 3-6 days that winter....save maybe a brief break in the January week-long torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 GFS with not so clean ridging. Sneaky soaker on tap later this weekend? Sucks we don't have a late season hurricane, would've been a nice pattern for it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS with not so clean ridging. Sneaky soaker on tap later this weekend? Yeah the models just don’t wanna relent on that idea with that thing up the coast. And it’s not even clear what that is… Mean it starts out as a weakness in the middle levels and then you get this disproportionate trough curvature at the surface-could take on tropical characteristics as we get closer in the modeling time frame. It is getting kind of close in time so maybe it’s just a big inverted trough/warm frontal hybrid. Either way it’s acting like an inverted block? That’s when the high can’t settle south of the latitude flow so you end up with an East wind blowing into the ridge and we get screwed for a nice warm weather which I would rather have frankly. I don’t want it to be like 48 to 56 with rain mist and fog … I’d rather have it be 72 to 76 which is what that ridge would otherwise couch in the absence of that piece of shit lol Good thing I’m not God because it would be 90° until November 15 and then it would be 20° under 10 feet of snow until March 15 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 Seems like the Gfs is going to be the new D8 or 9 coastal bomb model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We had a legit threat like every 3-6 days that winter....save maybe a brief break in the January week-long torch. i had 28 "events" between 12/1 and 4/4 that winter, only 2 of them (10" and 12") were > 8". with 116" total. not sure what my max depth was, but i don't think it was anything special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We had a legit threat like every 3-6 days that winter....save maybe a brief break in the January week-long torch. It sort of was a let down near and south of the pike later in January onward. I probably could have smoked a cigarette and have been happy getting that big storm that the Cape got in January 2008, but that was a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah the models just don’t wanna relent on that idea with that thing up the coast. And it’s not even clear what that is… Mean it starts out as a weakness in the middle levels and then you get this disproportionate trough curvature at the surface-could take on tropical characteristics as we get closer in the modeling time frame. It is getting kind of close in time so maybe it’s just a big inverted trough/warm frontal hybrid. Either way it’s acting like an inverted block? That’s when the high can’t settle south of the latitude flow so you end up with an East wind blowing into the ridge and we get screwed for a nice warm weather which I would rather have frankly. I don’t want it to be like 48 to 56 with rain mist and fog … I’d rather have it be 72 to 76 which is what that ridge would otherwise couch in the absence of that piece of shit lol Good thing I’m not God because it would be 90° until November 15 and then it would be 20° under 10 feet of snow until March 15 Part of me is glad you're not god, yet part of me wants you anointed ASAP. Hopefully this trend keeps up into winter, like Will said. You would think that something has to give with all of the water vapor in the air/very warm hemispheric SSTs coupled with how dry it was this past summer. There is so much latent energy both at the surface and in the atmosphere; lets light some damn matches- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It sort of was a let down near and south of the pike later in January onward. I probably could have smoked a cigarette and have been happy getting that big storm that the Cape got in January 2008, but that was a whiff. I would happily sign up for that winter where I am...probably pulled like 85" with a near 30" pack in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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