TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You were talking about flooding and soaking rains to the pike . I mean lol. One of your worst ones yet. And there’s been many You were talking dry. Dry it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 I've been monitoring this ... It's kind of both camps were right, and both camps were wrong. Not sure that means the GFS, nor the Euro/NAM tandem(blend) really deserve the win. In one sense, the GFS is likely to be right about the lower QPF totaling from N NJ to/throughout SNE, but the Euro and NAM were right about the extension of b-c leafing and what is actually "trying" to fall from ceiling. The rads been lit up with raging ... virga - (altho some is getting down) I think I recall the Euro doing this in a blizzard back ... oh, some 7 years ago. It was suddenly attempting to wall in 18" of snow through a 15F BL ...moving it along in a sustained 40kts of NNE trajectory over N Nj and NYC ... doing so with just 48 hours left before go time. Left NWS scrambling, because the NAM ( with it's typical NW bias that everyone ignores but apparently me for f sake -) was also agreeing with it... Nothing - oops. Oh, maybe they got a 1.4" of cryo-grits piled up along the base of telephone pools and parked car tires, in a general gelid gray tinted air, but it was an epic epic bust, because they really didn't have much choice but to buy-in. And so was foisted blizzard warnings. Maybe a little hyperbolic but something like that... Radar did have 20 even 30 DBZ returns fanning over top, that far west, but it wasn't saturating the BL. Anyway, this is not a winter situation, but in general... the Euro and NAM have a history of over playing the W-NW arcs of cyclonic influence. The NAM is actually the far worse of the two, though - On the flip side, I saw a lot of GFS runs with nothing into Massachusetts' latitude, and it had to bump N with at least measurable inside of 36 hour lead. That's not very good either.... I think it is right, however, in the suppressed behavior with the big high getting ready to pancake through CNE... Mooshing the PP will set us up ( by the way) good and proper for a nasty Sunday of 52 F with 32 mph E fetch gusts tossing soccer kids around the fields... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s raining here right now, what do you mean only the cape? Meant big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You were talking dry. Dry it is not. Yea. It's wet and raw AWT. The first batch certainly did not pan out though, it ended up SE and moved through quicker...but there's another along the south shore of LI that should move in around lunchtime especially for east zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 It's nice to see those torched Fall calls play out as expected though: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You were talking dry. Dry it is not. That is not at all what I said . Go back and actually read. I had light showers and under .25 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've been monitoring this ... It's kind of both camps were right, and both camps were wrong. Not sure that means the GFS, nor the Euro/NAM tandem(blend) really deserve the win. In one sense, the GFS is likely to be right about the lower QPF totaling from N NJ to/throughout SNE, but the Euro and NAM were right about the extension of b-c leafing and what is actually "trying" to fall from ceiling. The rads been lit up with raging ... virga - (altho some is getting down) I think I recall the Euro doing this in a blizzard back ... oh, some 7 years ago. It was suddenly attempting to wall in 18" of snow through a 15F BL ...moving it along in a sustained 40kts of NNE trajectory over N Nj and NYC ... doing so with just 48 hours left before go time. Left NWS scrambling, because the NAM ( with it's typical NW bias that everyone ignores but apparently me for f sake -) was also agreeing with it... Nothing - oops. Oh, maybe they got a 1.4" of cryo-grits piled up along the base of telephone pools and parked car tires, in a general gelid gray tinted air, but it was an epic epic bust, because they really didn't have much choice but to buy-in. And so was foisted blizzard warnings. Maybe a little hyperbolic but something like that... Radar did have 20 even 30 DBZ returns fanning over top, that far west, but it wasn't saturating the BL. Anyway, this is not a winter situation, but in general... the Euro and NAM have a history of over playing the W-NW arcs of cyclonic influence. The NAM is actually the far worse of the two, though - On the flip side, I saw a lot of GFS runs with nothing into Massachusetts' latitude, and it had to bump N with at least measurable inside of 36 hour lead. That's not very good either.... I think it is right, however, in the suppressed behavior with the big high getting ready to pancake through CNE... Mooshing the PP will set us up ( by the way) good and proper for a nasty Sunday of 52 F with 32 mph E fetch gusts tossing soccer kids around the fields... Lol .. tossing soccer kids around field . Priceless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That is not at all what I said . Go back and actually read. I had light showers and under .25 here Glad I watered yesterday. I was hoping euro would be right. King nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Euro is more like a queen nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Glad I watered yesterday. I was hoping euro would be right. King nothing. Garbage model . EPS too. Reggie and IBM and HRRR won this one . When the hi res agree and NAM is the one that doesn’t.. you know which train to jump on . Folks need to note this for winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That is not at all what I said . Go back and actually read. I had light showers and under .25 here You snuck that in after talking dry all day. It’s okay. We know the truth, enjoy the beautiful day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 If Tolland and South Weymouth don’t get 2”, did it even rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 yeeeah, I get the teasing and fun - it's all good. Let's be clear, the Euro is not a bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It's nice to see those torched Fall calls play out as expected though: Yeah just as you called it. I think that other guy was drunk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Snow mixed in near the NC/TN border on the west side of Ian. That’s impressive. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Why is the BOS radar down for days at a time at least once every 2 months? What a joke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, kdxken said: Yeah just as you called it. I think that other guy was drunk. You? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Supernovice said: Why is the BOS radar down for days at a time at least once every 2 months? What a joke They are replacing generator and fuel tanks as part of maintenance. I think KGYX was down last week. https://www.weather.gov/media/box/KBOX_SLEP.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: They are replacing generator and fuel tanks as part of maintenance. I think KGYX was down last week. https://www.weather.gov/media/box/KBOX_SLEP.pdf Besides, their uptime minus scheduled maintenance numbers are quite good considering the radar system was installed in the late 80's and early 90's, and are operational 24/7. Some parts of the 88D radar system are still from the original installs and only get replaced when they fail (from what I've read). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Garbage model . EPS too. Reggie and IBM and HRRR won this one . When the hi res agree and NAM is the one that doesn’t.. you know which train to jump on . Folks need to note this for winter Noted. Reggie, IBM, HRRR. Let’s go. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Besides, their uptime minus scheduled maintenance numbers are quite good considering the radar system was installed in the late 80's and early 90's, and are operational 24/7. Some parts of the 88D radar system are still from the original installs and only get replaced when they fail (from what I've read). Ok ok I’m being too tough. Just seems whenever I look at the radar which admittedly isn’t as much as I used to- it’s down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Should have known better. 99/100 times these setups blow for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Euro LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 58 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: They are replacing generator and fuel tanks as part of maintenance. I think KGYX was down last week. https://www.weather.gov/media/box/KBOX_SLEP.pdf They were, and today they must be testing it or something, as there's a circular area showing much less echoes, centered on the dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 48 minutes ago, tamarack said: They were, and today they must be testing it or something, as there's a circular area showing much less echoes, centered on the dome. I had posted as bulletin for GYX earlier last week, They were offline from the 22-28'th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Better to have the radar down during this boring stretch than in January when we have our 974mb up the Hudson rainer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Steinie here today. This reminds me of who winter storms usually favor. Overblown everywhere. Just .35 down here. Not even close to the 1-1.5" predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 .72 may finish with an inch.. definitely on the lower end of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Nice drink. But definitely on the lighter side of guidance. Certainly not dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 I'm thinking skies and conditions will improve and be better for tomorrow ... just watching how this whole ordeal is behaving. It's already decaying the cloud tendency across upstate NY and C/NNE, and looping you can see it's suppression toward the S/SE albeit slowly. We've likely seen the worst this was ever going to offer. The wind may also be strongest nearer the coast, but once inland, ...a more suppressed PP exerting S will likely mean the easterly conveyor ends up S too, so places along the western side of the ORH hills (say) could end up with 57, lighter winds, partly sunny and actually on the plus side in terms of sensible weather. Sun's already carving through over NW CT ...and I don't see this going the other way. The large dominating synoptic circulation is going to overwhelm this thing. I'm also a little suspect about that latter sort of new cyclogen S of LI as impacting through mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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