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October 2022 OBS/DISC


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18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Looks like a TC developing near OBX on visible. May not earn anything officially, but there will be semblances of tropical storm type conditions later.

Expect the unexpected. The major guidance aint bluffin' this time.

That is something to watch. 

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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Never seen so much wild talk. hope it pans out. I guess that meso low/TS changes things, because I thought it looked meh before that development. 

99/100 times its nothing noteworthy where I am, so my MO is to not waste any time or energy on it and if I am surprised, then so be it.

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12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There are going to be some localized 5-6'' rainfall totals with this right along a narrow corridor from like SE CT through NE CT into NE MA, SE NH, and into ME. 

It's so shhhhtooopid to call this a mesolow.

 

But yea i believe the highest rainfall totals will be to the north and east of the "mesolow". Right front quadrant. Gonna rip. 5-6" in two hours?

 

No one outside of this forum knows what what a mesolow is. NHC would be much better off going with classification in situations like this, so broader public can understand. Technicalities aside, the sensible weather impacts will be the same, so it's minimal risk for them. And at the same time, stop naming cirrus farts out in the middle of the north Atlantic that get sheared apart by day 3.

 

 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

It's so shhhhtooopid to call this a mesolow.

 

But yea i believe the highest rainfall totals will be to the north and east of the "mesolow". Right front quadrant. Gonna rip. 5-6" in two hours?

 

No one outside of this forum knows what what a mesolow is. NHC would be much better off going with classification in situations like this, so broader public can understand. Technicalities aside, the sensible weather impacts will be the same, so it's minimal risk for them. And at the same time, stop naming cirrus farts out in the middle of the north Atlantic that get sheared apart by day 3.

 

 

Well it is small scale and not really a TC as it is partially warm core. I wouldn't call it a classic low pressure center either as it's embedded really in an area of lower environmental pressure.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

13z HRRR with a TS south of Long Island lol.

Will see. Could be full of it. But some of these rapidly ejecting NE/ENE nascent Tropical lows are so strange. Strong UL divergence trumps all factors, at times, I guess. You'll see them spin-up in no time in the middle of marginal conditions and yet ideal conditions in the Caribbean it takes 3 days for the same stage of LLC development. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well it is small scale and not really a TC as it is partially warm core. I wouldn't call it a classic low pressure center either as it's embedded really in an area of lower environmental pressure.

I get the technicalities. 99% of the people who will be affected don't know or care. That's all I'm saying. Go tell your neighbor about the mesolow coming up the coast and watch for that dear in headlights reaction. 

And for the NHC it's the 99% they are measured by, whether their warnings were adequate. They ultimately need to hedge forecast risk against sensible weather outcomes; not technical definitions.

Eh. Whatever. 

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20 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Tamarack tubing down the Sandy River by car?

Would take a lot, as current flow is 95 cfs, only 37% of median for the date.  However, the morning map has most of the watershed (including my area) at 3-4" with 4-6" in the headwaters.  Only 0.07" so far this month.

Say goodbye to foliage and welcome to stick season!

Already here, 80-100% leaf drop, depending on species, with oak at the lower end and white ash bare except for the huge seed load on the female trees.

Made it to 40+ diurnal range with 69/27.  That 42° span is tied for 2nd biggest here thru 25 Octobers.  Oct 10, 2006 had 75/30 for the lead.

 

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