jbenedet Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Looks like a TC developing near OBX on visible. May not earn anything officially, but there will be semblances of tropical storm type conditions later. Expect the unexpected. The major guidance aint bluffin' this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Euro with 74kt max just off the NH coast. Congrats IOSN3. Hopefully it stays east of me. Maine can keep the power disruptions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 We don't need any power disruptions but foliage will get its ass kicked with the winds and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully it stays east of me. Maine can keep the power disruptions. Lets tear some poles down in Methuen Ma. Ele 154' ASL and 30 ni N of Boston. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Looks like a TC developing near OBX on visible. May not earn anything officially, but there will be semblances of tropical storm type conditions later. Expect the unexpected. The major guidance aint bluffin' this time. That is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 So much for the dry morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Foliage is unreal against the gray backdrop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets tear some poles down in Methuen Ma. Ele 154' ASL and 30 ni N of Boston. Hopefully we can tear the 'ole Naval Air Station down in South Weymouth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully plenty we can tear the 'ole Naval Air Station down in South Weymouth. Already done. Now just homes for the most part. And a TDWR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 53 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Looks like a TC developing near OBX on visible. May not earn anything officially, but there will be semblances of tropical storm type conditions later. Expect the unexpected. The major guidance aint bluffin' this time. Expect wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Already done. Now just homes for the most part. And a TDWR. We need a TDWR at BDL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 There are going to be some localized 5-6'' rainfall totals with this right along a narrow corridor from like SE CT through NE CT into NE MA, SE NH, and into ME. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Man the LLJ looks nuts on some models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There are going to be some localized 5-6'' rainfall totals with this right along a narrow corridor from like SE CT through NE CT into NE MA, SE NH, and into ME. Yeah right along and to the left of meso low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Really won't take much to draw down some solid gusts (55-65 mph) in that environment. DCAPE too ~500 J/KG so any heavier convective elements are going to yield a wild few minutes for some 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Never seen so much wild talk. hope it pans out. I guess that meso low/TS changes things, because I thought it looked meh before that development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 13z HRRR with a TS south of Long Island lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Never seen so much wild talk. hope it pans out It will be inverted some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: Never seen so much wild talk. hope it pans out. I guess that meso low/TS changes things, because I thought it looked meh before that development. 99/100 times its nothing noteworthy where I am, so my MO is to not waste any time or energy on it and if I am surprised, then so be it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 13z HRRR with a TS south of Long Island lol. Now that would be wild. I wonder if models are starting to pick up on this at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There are going to be some localized 5-6'' rainfall totals with this right along a narrow corridor from like SE CT through NE CT into NE MA, SE NH, and into ME. It's so shhhhtooopid to call this a mesolow. But yea i believe the highest rainfall totals will be to the north and east of the "mesolow". Right front quadrant. Gonna rip. 5-6" in two hours? No one outside of this forum knows what what a mesolow is. NHC would be much better off going with classification in situations like this, so broader public can understand. Technicalities aside, the sensible weather impacts will be the same, so it's minimal risk for them. And at the same time, stop naming cirrus farts out in the middle of the north Atlantic that get sheared apart by day 3. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: It's so shhhhtooopid to call this a mesolow. But yea i believe the highest rainfall totals will be to the north and east of the "mesolow". Right front quadrant. Gonna rip. 5-6" in two hours? No one outside of this forum knows what what a mesolow is. NHC would be much better off going with classification in situations like this, so broader public can understand. Technicalities aside, the sensible weather impacts will be the same, so it's minimal risk for them. And at the same time, stop naming cirrus farts out in the middle of the north Atlantic that get sheared apart by day 3. Well it is small scale and not really a TC as it is partially warm core. I wouldn't call it a classic low pressure center either as it's embedded really in an area of lower environmental pressure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 13z HRRR with a TS south of Long Island lol. Will see. Could be full of it. But some of these rapidly ejecting NE/ENE nascent Tropical lows are so strange. Strong UL divergence trumps all factors, at times, I guess. You'll see them spin-up in no time in the middle of marginal conditions and yet ideal conditions in the Caribbean it takes 3 days for the same stage of LLC development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well it is small scale and not really a TC as it is partially warm core. I wouldn't call it a classic low pressure center either as it's embedded really in an area of lower environmental pressure. I get the technicalities. 99% of the people who will be affected don't know or care. That's all I'm saying. Go tell your neighbor about the mesolow coming up the coast and watch for that dear in headlights reaction. And for the NHC it's the 99% they are measured by, whether their warnings were adequate. They ultimately need to hedge forecast risk against sensible weather outcomes; not technical definitions. Eh. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 20 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Tamarack tubing down the Sandy River by car? Would take a lot, as current flow is 95 cfs, only 37% of median for the date. However, the morning map has most of the watershed (including my area) at 3-4" with 4-6" in the headwaters. Only 0.07" so far this month. Say goodbye to foliage and welcome to stick season! Already here, 80-100% leaf drop, depending on species, with oak at the lower end and white ash bare except for the huge seed load on the female trees. Made it to 40+ diurnal range with 69/27. That 42° span is tied for 2nd biggest here thru 25 Octobers. Oct 10, 2006 had 75/30 for the lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will be inverted some. Curved to the right? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 2 hours ago, dryslot said: We don't need any power disruptions but foliage will get its ass kicked with the winds and rain. Eastern SNE losing their foliage before the leaves even reach peak! Was hoping for a dry morning but it’s been off and on showers in the valley since 8 AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That is something to watch. That's the feature. You can see the modeled LLJ develop on the northeast side of it tonight, and that's what rips up the coast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Already raining leaves out there on southerly winds before we even get underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Light to moderate pine needles reducing visibility. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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