Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Milder incrementally the next two days... Probably 4-7 F warmer for most, relative to region tomorrow. Then, at least that much again Thursday. In fact, the NAM is all the way to 20C at 980 mb/above the 2 meter sounding slope, so it's probably more like 23C walking out to collect the mail or driving down a town thoroughfare with the windows half down. Not sure about NNE but they are encapsulated in the same general synoptic circumstance so likely a warmer than normal day there, too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Clear skies, Down to 33.4F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: Clear skies, Down to 33.4F. 29F at closest PWS… 30F MVL… 33F at 1500ft and 35F at 1800ft. Summit is 32F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Thurs night/ Friday morning looks interesting. Maybe even thread worthy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 25 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Thurs night/ Friday morning looks interesting. Maybe even thread worthy? Wiz already on it lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Thurs night/ Friday morning looks interesting. Maybe even thread worthy? Damage 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Doesn't look particularly crazy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2022 Author Share Posted October 11, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Doesn't look particularly crazy to me. I'm sure it won't be, like 99 out of 100 "severe" threats around here. I'll go waaaaaay out on a limb and guess that the storms will be more ominous through the Berkshires and into the ORH hills, and then weaken markedly as they descend the spine and onto the coastal plane. I haven't labored through any CAPE maps, but just a wild shot in the dark.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm sure it won't be, like 99 out of 100 "severe" threats around here. I'll go waaaaaay out on a limb and guess that the storms will be more ominous through the Berkshires and into the ORH hills, and then weaken markedly as they descend the spine and onto the coastal plane. I haven't labored through any CAPE maps, but just a wild shot in the dark.... No instability really anywhere. Just some downpours and a few rumbles maybe. Maybe a few areas get some good winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2022 Author Share Posted October 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No instability really anywhere. Just some downpours and a few rumbles maybe. Maybe a few areas get some good winds. Go west, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No instability really anywhere. Just some downpours and a few rumbles maybe. Maybe a few areas get some good winds. Majority of the CAPE is elevated. Alot will have to do with how much of the region gets into the deeper warm sector. If we can push 60-63°F dews anywhere (probably better shot along the coast) that should yield enough llvl CAPE to get some good wind gusts. But I thought this looked a bit better a few days ago. This was never a setup about CAPE as any focus on CAPE should have been in the lowest few kilometers, but it was more about the potential degree of llvl CAPE with the shear. I was also heavily intrigued with the trough and it was was going to dig and then lift (as the system de-amplifies) across our region but now this looks to happen a bit West. This also has slowed down timing a bit (not that timing really matters in these setups). This will probably be best from NJ along LI, RI, and Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 40-50kt winds at 850mb doesn't really get me excited I looked at a few others like Euro and RGEM that showed winds a bit stronger..but this is October. we can do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2022 Author Share Posted October 11, 2022 57 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Majority of the CAPE is elevated. Alot will have to do with how much of the region gets into the deeper warm sector. If we can push 60-63°F dews anywhere (probably better shot along the coast) that should yield enough llvl CAPE to get some good wind gusts. But I thought this looked a bit better a few days ago. This was never a setup about CAPE as any focus on CAPE should have been in the lowest few kilometers, but it was more about the potential degree of llvl CAPE with the shear. I was also heavily intrigued with the trough and it was was going to dig and then lift (as the system de-amplifies) across our region but now this looks to happen a bit West. This also has slowed down timing a bit (not that timing really matters in these setups). This will probably be best from NJ along LI, RI, and Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 25 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 40-50kt winds at 850mb doesn't really get me excited I looked at a few others like Euro and RGEM that showed winds a bit stronger..but this is October. we can do better There's 40-55 or so at 925...but some of that will be inverted for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Zzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Zzzz Damaging Z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There's 40-55 or so at 925...but some of that will be inverted for sure. I actually prefer these setups with like 40-50 knot LLJ as opposed to the setups where you have an insane 60-80 knot LJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Damaging Z's That's what the Lions got Sunday with Zeppe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Down to 23 this morning, about 3 mm ice on the washtub water and it's raining leaves this morning. Yesterday's 45/26 was 12° BN, greatest negative departure since Fathers' Day and 2nd greatest since March 4. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, tamarack said: Down to 23 this morning, about 3 mm ice on the washtub water and it's raining leaves this morning. Yesterday's 45/26 was 12° BN, greatest negative departure since Fathers' Day and 2nd greatest since March 4. 27° here and raining leaves here too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 28F with very dense fog this morning. There was actually some rime forming on evergreen boughs in the freezing fog. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Damage I just heard Tolland will be leveled from the winds. Take shelter immediately! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Bottomed out at 31.5°F before fog rolled in and capped off the low temps this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2022 Author Share Posted October 11, 2022 33.6 this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 39.6F. Still no freeze yet. Get these clouds/fog outta here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Beautiful day. Sunny and in the 60s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Beautiful day. Sunny and in the 60s. Yes sir…low to mid 60’s already. Deep blue skies, Gorgeous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Beautiful day. Sunny and in the 60s. Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 We wedgie. 53F and overcast in PWM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Clouds and Fog finally burning off, Up to 50°F here at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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