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October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
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Milder incrementally the next two days... Probably 4-7 F warmer for most, relative to region tomorrow.  Then, at least that much again Thursday. 

In fact, the NAM is all the way to 20C at 980 mb/above the 2 meter sounding slope, so it's probably more like 23C walking out to collect the mail or driving down a town thoroughfare with the windows half down.  Not sure about NNE but they are encapsulated in the same general synoptic circumstance so likely a warmer than normal day there, too.  

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn't look particularly crazy to me.

I'm sure it won't be, like 99 out of 100 "severe" threats around here. I'll go waaaaaay out on a limb and guess that the storms will be more ominous through the Berkshires and into the ORH hills, and then weaken markedly as they descend the spine and onto the coastal plane. I haven't labored through any CAPE maps, but just a wild shot in the dark....

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure it won't be, like 99 out of 100 "severe" threats around here. I'll go waaaaaay out on a limb and guess that the storms will be more ominous through the Berkshires and into the ORH hills, and then weaken markedly as they descend the spine and onto the coastal plane. I haven't labored through any CAPE maps, but just a wild shot in the dark....

No instability really anywhere. Just some downpours and a few rumbles maybe. Maybe a few areas get some good winds.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No instability really anywhere. Just some downpours and a few rumbles maybe. Maybe a few areas get some good winds.

Majority of the CAPE is elevated. Alot will have to do with how much of the region gets into the deeper warm sector. If we can push 60-63°F dews anywhere (probably better shot along the coast) that should yield enough llvl CAPE to get some good wind gusts. 

But I thought this looked a bit better a few days ago. This was never a setup about CAPE as any focus on CAPE should have been in the lowest few kilometers, but it was more about the potential degree of llvl CAPE with the shear. I was also heavily intrigued with the trough and it was was going to dig and then lift (as the system de-amplifies) across our region but now this looks to happen a bit West. This also has slowed down timing a bit (not that timing really matters in these setups). 

This will probably be best from NJ along LI, RI, and Cape

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57 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Majority of the CAPE is elevated. Alot will have to do with how much of the region gets into the deeper warm sector. If we can push 60-63°F dews anywhere (probably better shot along the coast) that should yield enough llvl CAPE to get some good wind gusts. 

But I thought this looked a bit better a few days ago. This was never a setup about CAPE as any focus on CAPE should have been in the lowest few kilometers, but it was more about the potential degree of llvl CAPE with the shear. I was also heavily intrigued with the trough and it was was going to dig and then lift (as the system de-amplifies) across our region but now this looks to happen a bit West. This also has slowed down timing a bit (not that timing really matters in these setups). 

This will probably be best from NJ along LI, RI, and Cape

:o

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25 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

40-50kt winds at 850mb doesn't really get me excited

I looked at a few others like Euro and RGEM that showed winds a bit stronger..but this is October. we can do better

There's 40-55 or so at 925...but some of that will be inverted for sure. 

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15 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Down to 23 this morning, about 3 mm ice on the washtub water and it's raining leaves this morning.  Yesterday's 45/26 was 12° BN, greatest negative departure since Fathers' Day and 2nd greatest since March 4.

27° here and raining leaves here too.

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