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October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
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45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That is a great pic!!!   What kind of camera do you use?  
 

Those things scare me

I use a Nikon d3300 but that's my friend's trap with an old cannon. Most of the pictures I've posted are his he's a professional. It's cheap to set up except for the flashes. That's where it gets really pricey.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like 2-3 great mild, sunny days before that FROPA late week.  Even up here rebounding well into the 60s to low 70s.  Super bi-polar weather this time of year.

I was feeling some early cold before oil got stupid and I'm cringing turning the heat on. So I am fine with a mild stretch. But this weekend will still be mild behind fropa here. Looks like 60-65 or so. 

Extended looks mild after early next week so I think October eeks out a little AN which is great. Lets it get settled in later in November.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh no it's going to be sunny and 65. :lol:  Looks nice to start Mowvember.

It's just about the time of the year when you begin to receive the panic posts ....

"Do you see a change to a colder and snowier pattern"

"Hey when is it going to change?"

"Why are you downplaying the blizzard at 384 hours?"

"Hey can't you at least admit the snower on the euro looks promising?"

"Another Christmas spent swimming in the pool"

"Many here think a pattern change is imminent, why do you always have to be a downer?"

the 5th season in SNE is Panic Season!!....just about time for those panic posts to begin rolling in..

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I was feeling some early cold before oil got stupid and I'm cringing turning the heat on. So I am fine with a mild stretch. But this weekend will still be mild behind fropa here. Looks like 60-65 or so. 

Extended looks mild after early next week so I think October eeks out a little AN which is great. Lets it get settled in later in November.

I will say the new heat pump works great here for very efficient heating on electric now. And locked in $2.50/gallon propane for the winter (last winter I paid $4).

Going to be a much cheaper winter at least monthly bills, but also factor in the thousands for the A/C, Heat mini split, haha.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like 2-3 great mild, sunny days before that FROPA late week.  Even up here rebounding well into the 60s to low 70s.  Super bi-polar weather this time of year.

Mmm. And it’s behavioral aspect actually showing increased deltas in the last 15 to 20 years… simple terms, greater variance than is normal variance even for autumns… You can include springs in that too.

 Most obviously and likely related to you know what - Though the Y-coordinates” would cement eyes shut in here so futile to write what nobody reads

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Seasonable to AN pattern for the next week down here before we cool off. Looks great. 

Yeah… I’d also add that it’s kind of modulating warmer than it looked two days ago - we’re talking about this week one 

I provide discussions for weather firm and I had pointed out in there last week that we seem to have competing aspects going on in the models.  This morning beautiful exemplifies that with that trough later this week now looking completely neutered not even making it to short term actually…  The hemisphere is trying to be anomalously convoluted and unusually amplified earlier than normal while at the same time normalizing as the near terms approach. 

-this is probably related to the fact that all models tend to be over amplified at those extended ranges …maybe  

Anyway these late middle range early season outbreaks end up being rather tepid by comparison, when verifying. This last weekend is kind of an example - we still managed low to mid 60s as our ping highs; the model charts from last Monday or whatever you would’ve thought we would be upper 40s to mid 50s tops. 

This mild looking week is kind of doing it with the actual pattern not just with the 850 mbar smear

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