TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Wind should be in the fraud 5 for most in SNE….RARELY pans out. Sad really. But that’s how it goes here. Some of our biggest winds come during sunny days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 And the sun is out. Beautiful blue skies. Gonna be a great day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Wow it's legit now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice mild ending of the month coming up. Might be an understatement, too. But we’ll hold pending how that evolves. The signal’s emerging boldly though. I’m sure you’re aware… Some of these recent euro runs, ensembles and operational, began disrupting the resonance between roughly the date line of central pacific through the longitude ~ Chicago … despite the MJO actually moving into phase 6 and trying to get into 7 from those same sources. It’s been a bad year for the MJO - man just cannot seem to couple with the atmosphere. They also began doing that while the GEFs members have been maintaining a pretty strong positive PNA. So there was a conflict there beginning to emerge – all this is really just the last three or four days of guidance tenor. But the signal is more coherent through all sources this morning including the GEFs …beginning to slowly seesaw backward. You know … it’s almost like the current look with this trough in the east… coming to a nadir sometime between Monday and Thursday of next week ( wouldn’t be ridiculous by the way if we get a chilly rain coastal with elevation blue out of that - I hinted that in a one sentence drive by post the other day…) is being handled like ‘the winter expression before the Indian Summer’ typology. I mean snow’s a human convention in all that. Philosophically it’s whenever the pattern seesaws from early chill back to summary regime - right? Perhaps it’s getting rather late in the climate change slow moving apocalypse for the early chill signals to actually have snow in them lol Seriously tho I take longer range warm signals for some 10 … 20% more weight as a standard approach. Whether it is because of climate change or not … the past 15 years those tend to over perform the majority at global scales. But I’m also on the fence a little bit because there is that other aspect that long lead model images of that nature also tend to be over amplified so you’ve also got conflicting concepts going on there interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 That was over 40 for a time. Not bad. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 0.87" thru 7 this morning. Some sites in York County reporting 3"+. Haven't had a 3"+ event since October of 2016 - we've had about 20 here since May 1998. Currently light RA with gusty SE wind and 60°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 1.19" so far and looks like some heavier echoes over SE MA will move north up into the mid coast and here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was over 40 for a time. Not bad. yeah it was a solid 15 min period of that. Now starting to gust again as the final band pushes through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 2 hours ago, kdxken said: Got you by 0.02, wind did Gust to 14 miles an hour. Well that was a quick dumping. Up to 1.72 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 What happened to these 4-6” amounts that models were pushing out yesterday afternoon? Any of that nonsense materialize Lol…what a joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: What happened to these 4-6” amounts that models were pushing out yesterday afternoon? Any of that nonsense materialize Lol…what a joke. It went wildly poof. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Those were wild runs that ran extremely wild in another direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 So it looks like if anything the models were too wet? I didn’t pay too close attention to this because it didn’t look that extraordinary to me. I mean the deep pinwheel over the great lakes/associated trough is for the time being sort of stationary while trying to send this lead side frontal construct through us… I mean the dynamics and mechanics were what they were but it seem like you weren’t really differentiating the field enough for it to be an extreme event– that’s just sort of a canvas for this. Admittedly with shame… I looked at the NAM FOUS once we were inside of 60 hours at ALB/LGA/BOS. As a quick and dirty technique I’ll just average the triangulum between those points off the gridded QPF. I don’t recall seeing values very much north of 2“. I mean obviously that is a crude method in today’s era of reasonably accurate meso analysis at less than 40 hours that can expose embedded heavier activity etc whatever …basically this was a slow moving warm conveyor transporting saturable air under attenuating mid-level mechanics… That synoptic appeal combine with those grid numbers was good enough for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I don’t think I’ve had more than two full inner tubes all at once in a long time. Not the storm total… just having it all in there for the morning pour. Certainly have been “storm totals” of 2+ but often over a couple empties. The timing lined up with this one. Emptied 2.55” and it’s still raining steadily. Good overflow catch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Base of the ski area automated station just pushed 3.00”. Moisture train continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 1.26" - will like end up around 1.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Base of the ski area automated station just pushed 3.00”. Moisture train continues. Do you think that might’ve been a little bit of terrain enhanced? The wind trajectories were sort of SSE pretty much thru the 700 mbar. Maybe not appreciably strong but that was a pretty high pwat air mass being humped over the terrain. Ha Kind of gross but where it humps it dumps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2022 Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 99/100 times its nothing noteworthy where I am, so my MO is to not waste any time or energy on it and if I am surprised, then so be it. UPDATE: I wasn't surprised- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 About 2.2" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It went wildly poof. A big red flag for me was the HREF not showing really big 3 and 6 hourly max values. Sure the 24 hours max values were impressive, but 5 inches of rain in 24 hours is more of a river flood than flash flood without antecedent conditions being really primed. We're likely going to hit some 5 inch marks up here, but mostly just over minor flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 4 hours ago, Modfan2 said: Not nearly as much as you here, just west. Ended up over 2 2.13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Do you think that might’ve been a little bit of terrain enhanced? The wind trajectories were sort of SSE pretty much thru the 700 mbar. Maybe not appreciably strong but that was a pretty high pwat air mass being humped over the terrain. Ha Kind of gross but where it humps it dumps Probably. If you look at the CoCoRaHS reports, you can see the highest totals are clustered around the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Do you think that might’ve been a little bit of terrain enhanced? The wind trajectories were sort of SSE pretty much thru the 700 mbar. Maybe not appreciably strong but that was a pretty high pwat air mass being humped over the terrain. Ha Kind of gross but where it humps it dumps Happy Anniversary Typhhon Tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: About 2.2" here. Yeah. Probably a bit more here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Do you think that might’ve been a little bit of terrain enhanced? The wind trajectories were sort of SSE pretty much thru the 700 mbar. Maybe not appreciably strong but that was a pretty high pwat air mass being humped over the terrain. Ha Kind of gross but where it humps it dumps Happy anniversary Typhoon Tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Were there really models spitting out that much QPF yesterday? I thought I saw mostly 1-3" amounts on the models except for a couple of bullseyes in NH and ME higher elevations. Then again I only checked a couple of times yesterday in the morning and early afternoon before primary precip moved in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 looks like max gusts were between 40-60mph right along the the coast/Essex/Cape. Most of these occurred in the past few hours. It was mildly interesting for a bit this morning, but definitely not memorable. Just another storm https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2022 Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ended up over 2 2.13 I must have approached 2"...I had 1.33" around 8am and there has been some heavy rain since then. Probably will fall short, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, mreaves said: Probably. If you look at the CoCoRaHS reports, you can see the highest totals are clustered around the mountains. Word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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