CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Lets wash Lewiston Maine away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 32 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I mean, shame on him. He cherry picked the one fairly dry run and posted that narrative. Most runs have had a shot at rain every few days for the next few weeks. That’s how you know he is pushing a narrative…the facts/real weather prove him wrong time after time. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets wash Lewiston Maine away. Dryslot becomes Wetslot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Def looks damaging away from the coast fir a spell tomorrow night . Wild look. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Welcome to autumn bowling ball season. Is this normal? I thought it was a spring phenomenon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 18Z NAM goes wild. Really bumped up rain totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Def looks damaging away from the coast fir a spell tomorrow night . Wild look. Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 I was told this was no big deal… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Beer No tree left behind 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 2 hours ago, kdxken said: Say goodbye to foliage and welcome to stick season! A couple dozen on the ground already! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 On 10/11/2022 at 6:12 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Thurs night/ Friday morning looks interesting. Maybe even thread worthy? On 10/11/2022 at 6:52 AM, CoastalWx said: Doesn't look particularly crazy to me. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: No? From a wind standpoint which is what I think the intention was, it doesn’t. Rain was not either until last 12 hrs or so when guidance showed signs of slowing down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: From a wind standpoint which is what I think the intention was, it doesn’t. Rain was not either until last 12 hrs or so when guidance showed signs of slowing down. I think SE CT through RI and far SE MA stand a chance for some 45-55 mph gusts and then coastal Maine. The rain (totals) signal definitely increased the past 12-hours...but looking back I think the signals were slowly pointing to this happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Just now, weatherwiz said: I think SE CT through RI and far SE MA stand a chance for some 45-55 mph gusts and then coastal Maine. The rain (totals) signal definitely increased the past 12-hours...but looking back I think the signals were slowly pointing to this happening Maybe we can get a meso low to enhance winds. Wind advisory sure……perhaps my standards of something thread worthy are subjective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can get a meso low to enhance winds. Wind advisory sure……perhaps my standards of something thread worthy are subjective. nah I don't think your standards are subjective. I mean at the end of the day was never an impressive setup in terms of wind or even convective potential...your typical run-of-the mill fall-type event. I just like these events because they are so dynamic and there are so many processes involved. But I do think sometimes there is a standard that anytime a thread is made for convection it just assumes there is hype for a monster event or if it isn't a monster setup it isn't worth it. I had originally thought the biggest wind potential with this would be associated with a low topped line of convection, not necessarily synoptic. I didn't think the warm sector was going to be large enough. But wind potential is definitely held back given the signal for heavier rain as we'll really stabilize the boundary-layer. If we ever want to see a big widespread event in these setups we need pretty steep low-level lapse rates which of course are absent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 3 hours ago, kdxken said: Say goodbye to foliage and welcome to stick season! The rain will definitely cause some leaf shedding but there should still be decent foliage this weekend and next week in most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: We caught one on our trail cam in the woods behind my house. They are sneaky....hard to ever see, but they are around....esp in areas that have any type of undisturbed woods that are greater than like 10 acre chunks which is pretty common in the Holliston/Sherborn/Hopkinton stretch. They were noisy last night with full moon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 18Z NAM goes wild. Really bumped up rain totals.Not sure i want to be near bullseye Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: From a wind standpoint which is what I think the intention was, it doesn’t. Rain was not either until last 12 hrs or so when guidance showed signs of slowing down. I thought it would be decent wind, heavy rain and a little thunder maybe. Should knock leaves down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can get a meso low to enhance winds. Wind advisory sure……perhaps my standards of something thread worthy are subjective. I was more kidding about the thread part, but I thought it looked intriguing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 BOX is getting excited Our weather pattern turns much more active in this period as a strong cold front buoyed by powerful kinematics advances eastward from the Berkshires/Litchfield Hills on into central/eastern MA and RI. Per today`s NWP, the cold front`s eastward advance appears to be slower, as strongly meridional, front-parallel flow contribute to a slower eastward egress. When it comes to projecting impacts regarding this strong frontal passage, timing will be especially critical. Greatest impact likely to be felt by most people include heavy rain, with some potential for urban and poor drainage flooding in slow moving downpours - enhanced by a surge in PWATs of 1.5 to 1.7" per the SREF mean. Potential exists for a few rumbles of thunder as the front marches eastward due to rising dewpoints and the mentioned strong kinematic and dynamic support. These could serve to enhance rainfall rates were any to develop. Today`s guidance swings a fine line of shallow convective elements eastward across the Berkshires and northern CT into central MA by roughly the pre-dawn/early Friday AM commute hrs, with heavy downpours likely to accompany its passage. There are some indications of potential for backbuilding/re- development of northward-moving downpours, which could elevate the risk for localized urban and poor drainage flooding during the morning commute with areas in eastern MA, eastern CT and RI particularly favored. Had considered an impact-based flood watch as this could really cause issues for Friday morning commuters but will let later shifts make that determination with only localized street flooding concerns. Gusty winds and the potential for embedded convection, all capable of producing instances of wind damage, are possible as well. As mentioned previously the low-level jet is maximized near or ahead of the front - 925 mb winds peak around 55 kt across northern CT, much of RI and eastern MA. Mixing however looks shallow and while gusts could reach as high as 40 mph across especially coastal SNE, the questions on mixing made me less confident on gusts into more solid Wind Advisory ranges. However as we tend to see in strongly sheared but weak instability scenarios which best classifies this case, the shallow convective fine line could help mix this down and lead to localized, sporadic instances of wind damage especially as trees are fully leafed. SPC has maintained our area in a general risk for thunder at this point in time; while severe weather is considered a low risk, it is not out of the question to see some wind damage occur in association with this line of shallow convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 25 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The rain will definitely cause some leaf shedding but there should still be decent foliage this weekend and next week in most of SNE. It won't have the same look. The standalone beauties will be shredded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I think SE CT through RI and far SE MA stand a chance for some 45-55 mph gusts and then coastal Maine. The rain (totals) signal definitely increased the past 12-hours...but looking back I think the signals were slowly pointing to this happening Let's rock it. I could use the help. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Sure pretty in the woods today. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: 18Z NAM goes wild. Really bumped up rain totals. We wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Lets wash Lewiston Maine away. LFG!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: BOX is getting excited Our weather pattern turns much more active in this period as a strong cold front buoyed by powerful kinematics advances eastward from the Berkshires/Litchfield Hills on into central/eastern MA and RI. Per today`s NWP, the cold front`s eastward advance appears to be slower, as strongly meridional, front-parallel flow contribute to a slower eastward egress. When it comes to projecting impacts regarding this strong frontal passage, timing will be especially critical. Greatest impact likely to be felt by most people include heavy rain, with some potential for urban and poor drainage flooding in slow moving downpours - enhanced by a surge in PWATs of 1.5 to 1.7" per the SREF mean. Potential exists for a few rumbles of thunder as the front marches eastward due to rising dewpoints and the mentioned strong kinematic and dynamic support. These could serve to enhance rainfall rates were any to develop. Today`s guidance swings a fine line of shallow convective elements eastward across the Berkshires and northern CT into central MA by roughly the pre-dawn/early Friday AM commute hrs, with heavy downpours likely to accompany its passage. There are some indications of potential for backbuilding/re- development of northward-moving downpours, which could elevate the risk for localized urban and poor drainage flooding during the morning commute with areas in eastern MA, eastern CT and RI particularly favored. Had considered an impact-based flood watch as this could really cause issues for Friday morning commuters but will let later shifts make that determination with only localized street flooding concerns. Gusty winds and the potential for embedded convection, all capable of producing instances of wind damage, are possible as well. As mentioned previously the low-level jet is maximized near or ahead of the front - 925 mb winds peak around 55 kt across northern CT, much of RI and eastern MA. Mixing however looks shallow and while gusts could reach as high as 40 mph across especially coastal SNE, the questions on mixing made me less confident on gusts into more solid Wind Advisory ranges. However as we tend to see in strongly sheared but weak instability scenarios which best classifies this case, the shallow convective fine line could help mix this down and lead to localized, sporadic instances of wind damage especially as trees are fully leafed. SPC has maintained our area in a general risk for thunder at this point in time; while severe weather is considered a low risk, it is not out of the question to see some wind damage occur in association with this line of shallow convection. Grammar fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Climbed mount Wachusett again today.. great day and I think the smoke in the background is from a storage fire in Sudbury.. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 That’s a widespread soaker on the 00z HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s a widespread soaker on the 00z HRRR. Euro, NAM, HRRR locked in. Just have to get the Commodore 64 on board... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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