40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 CFS looks mild, but not as warm as out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Snower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 We need weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We need weather. Weeks and weeks of boredom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We need weather. Hopefully we get this again 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully we get this again Still can't believe I had snow blowing off the roof in the middle of the day in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Hard pass on snow in October. Too early. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still can't believe I had snow blowing off the roof in the middle of the day in that one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hard pass on snow in October. Too early. We take anomalous events though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 wow, I never realized that the CFS went out ~18,000 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Still can't believe I had snow blowing off the roof in the middle of the day in that one. Look at those dewpoints and wind direction on the sfc plot I posted....that is always key in very early season snow events...esp for coastal plain. You want to see those cold dewpoints just feeding into the precip to constantly create evap cooling to offset any diurnal heating or WAA. Dews in the teens just feeding down the S ME and SE NH coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Look at those dewpoints and wind direction on the sfc plot I posted....that is always key in very early season snow events...esp for coastal plain. You want to see those cold dewpoints just feeding into the precip to constantly create evap cooling to offset any diurnal heating or WAA. Dews in the teens just feeding down the S ME and SE NH coast. Winds ever so backed at like a 350 direction helped too. I had a few events with N winds still give me trouble in November because of the SSTs in BOS harbor. Not this one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winds ever so backed at like a 350 direction helped too. I had a few events with N winds still give me trouble in November because of the SSTs in BOS harbor. Not this one lol. Years ago on eastern (maybe 2007?), I made a list of required features to get advisory snows or greater in Boston in November (this would apply to October too), and one of the features always present was a high in Ontario or western Quebec.....you have to have the ageostrophic component more northwesterly (and actual sfc winds north or NNW)....if that wasn't present, then BOS got skunked every time and you'd see the accumulating snows limited to like 128 belt or 495 belt and N&W. Lack of that high placement doomed BOS in the 11/6-7/12 event and the Octobomb 2011 and even the 11/15/18 event....each time the high was more toward CAR/eastern Quebec/western Nova Scotia which was enough to screw the immediate coast....but even like 5-10 miles inland was fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Years ago on eastern (maybe 2007?), I made a list of required features to get advisory snows or greater in Boston in November (this would apply to October too), and one of the features always present was a high in Ontario or western Quebec.....you have to have the ageostrophic component more northwesterly (and actual sfc winds north or NNW)....if that wasn't present, then BOS got skunked every time and you'd see the accumulating snows limited to like 128 belt or 495 belt and N&W. Lack of that high placement doomed BOS in the 11/6-7/12 event and the Octobomb 2011 and even the 11/15/18 event....each time the high was more toward CAR/eastern Quebec/western Nova Scotia which was enough to screw the immediate coast....but even like 5-10 miles inland was fine. Yep, I remember that checklist. I was very bearish in the Oct 2020 event. I was using the past Novie events (2014 especially) where it just didn't do much. I thought maybe C-1" here locally. Winds backed just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hard pass on snow in October. Too early. Ya' I'm ready to switch to cold around Nov 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yep, I remember that checklist. I was very bearish in the Oct 2020 event. I was using the past Novie events (2014 especially) where it just didn't do much. I thought maybe C-1" here locally. Winds backed just enough. You’ve been bearish on 85% of events and jack on a lot of them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Onto November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 There's some cold signals amongst the models that could usher in cold enough temps to support some snow for parts of northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 18z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 I'd like to think that October ushers in the end to long-lasting high pressure domes and gets us into a more active pattern. One of my favorite months for different reasons but often has some nice surprises in the weather dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Gonna be tough to get much rain north of the immediate south coast this weekend. So much low level dry air feeding down. Wouldn’t be shocking to see most places stay dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 10 hours ago, rimetree said: I'd like to think that October ushers in the end to long-lasting high pressure domes and gets us into a more active pattern. One of my favorite months for different reasons but often has some nice surprises in the weather dept. I’d like to think I’ll be 28 years old this afternoon but my bet will be 75. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 14 hours ago, weathafella said: You’ve been bearish on 85% of events and jack on a lot of them. Lol that’s not true. Some events like that one and the 11/15/18 event are very hard on the coast. I’d rather be conservative and honk when it looks real good vs going Bastardi on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Need weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna be tough to get much rain north of the immediate south coast this weekend. So much low level dry air feeding down. Wouldn’t be shocking to see most places stay dry Gfs creeping north. We rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 I’ll sell the 4”+ nam though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Tick tick. Gully washer en route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs creeping north. We rain. IBM hi res is dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: IBM hi res is dry Euro also ticked north by a good margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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