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2022 Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest


WxUSAF
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14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Spreadsheet with all entries.  Next Tuesday-Thursday continues to look like a legit chance for IAD and BWI at least.  Monthly high of 81F so far at DCA.

2022 First Freeze Contest.xlsx 18.9 kB · 12 downloads

Damn...I honestly thought I had entered 10/19 for BWI and IAD. lol

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53 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Current GFS also puts RIC in the possibility category for the next week (it has an even lower temperature than BWI for Wed morning)

Pretty sure that, in years past, I've often gone with RIC hitting freezing at around the same time as, or earlier than, BWI. Didn't this time, so I hope they miss! :lol:

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On 10/14/2022 at 12:27 AM, WEATHER53 said:

2am on 19th for IAD

2am might be an early call unless it’s clear by 10pm

kinda misdiagnosis in text of NWS until today as this isn’t Canadian high pressure forcing down the cold but rather intense low spinning  in northern Great Lakes funneling down 

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3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think IAD makes it tonight 

If DCA hits the NWS predicted low of 33 I will eat the  fallen leaves and all other stations would be 29/30. I think DCA will bottom at 37. 

Agree.  IAD does great on good radiational cooling nights, while my location (elevation) and DCA do not (river, urban).  

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Things  can change and they will have to because right now temp and Dp about 3F above last night same time 

i really though IAD was a lock during this stretch

Any southerly component throws a wrench into DC area.we need wnw  or more northerly. Dews were 28-30 this time last night and that’s doesn’t allow much evap chilling  if this had been Canadian  high moving in we would have had those 24/25 dews and IAD  would have made it easy and maybe others. 

 

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