SRRTA22 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Man.. 49f and windy as hell with a good ol'fasioned nor'easter on October 2nd It's. Been. So. Long. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will cloudy, breezy, and unseasonably cool. There will be periods of rain. The heaviest rain will likely affect southern New Jersey, including Atlantic City, which received a daily record 3.01” yesterday. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 56° The cool weather will persist until the middle of the week before a brief period of warmer readings arrives. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 69.4°; 15-Year: 70.7° Newark: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.2°; 15-Year: 73.5° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 48 here as of 6:30 this AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Radar has looked the same for like 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Radar has looked the same for like 24 hours. Tough for the main rains to advance north of I-78 with dewpoints in the 30s for NYC. Central Park CLOUDY 51 37 58 NE13G22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 The meltdowns if this were winter 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Parts of Forked River Ocean County showing up now on radar with 6 inches of rain totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 This feels more like an October El Niño +PDO pattern with the cooler +PNA and heaviest rains in the Midatlantic. The near record warm +NPM must be overriding the La Niña. So this could make for an interesting winter forecast if the La Niña influence stays muted. October El Niño composite 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 3 hours ago, SRRTA22 said: I never liked October nor'easters/cool shots in terms of what winter could bring... To me this indicates we're about to have a warm *** nov-december before we get whopped by a huge storm. Big storm front end of winter followed by mush is what I'm thinking But I'll tell you what..forget what Forky is saying , This really is the "seasons of yesteryear" and I think @Volcanic Wintergot it right...that water vapor injection into the stratosphere is playing a major role There's a number of winters that fit this category, but there's a number that go the other way too. There's really just no way to tell. One thing we seem to have gotten rid of is what we had for most of the twentieth century, which is cold October, followed by mild November, followed by cold/snowy winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 hour ago, SRRTA22 said: Man.. 49f and windy as hell with a good ol'fasioned nor'easter on October 2nd It's. Been. So. Long. It's way too early for this ****. I hate having to turn my heat on so early. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: Tough for the main rains to advance north of I-78 with dewpoints in the 30s for NYC. Central Park CLOUDY 51 37 58 NE13G22 It would be better if they went out to sea lol, it's been raining for 2 days already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 43 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: The meltdowns if this were winter Yea man. This thing is hitting south shore LI as if it’s a brick wall. I may have actually cried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Good for NJ but pretty lame how the rain just disintegrates as it comes near LI. Hopefully that can change at least a little as the new coastal low gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Good for NJ but pretty lame how the rain just disintegrates as it comes near LI. Hopefully that can change at least a little as the new coastal low gets going. The HRRR which was correctly south with much of the rain last few days is wetter for Tuesday as the lower dewpoints and confluence relax a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Right at the northern edge of the rain for the past couple hours. If Tuesday works out I could see over 3" easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The HRRR which was correctly south with much of the rain last few days is wetter for Tuesday as the lower dewpoints and confluence relax a bit. I don't get this desire for flooding rains, it's already rained plenty the last couple of days. And it's not completely dry right now, the roads are wet down here and it's too cold for early October. Floods don't bust droughts, they just create run off, which is useless and destructive. It takes several months for droughts to end (not that this one is such a bad drought anyway.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Still raining here….getting close to 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 48 and light rain here on the October 3rd. The pattern has done a complete 360 froM the record warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I don't get this desire for flooding rains, it's already rained plenty the last couple of days. And it's not completely dry right now, the roads are wet down here and it's too cold for early October. Floods don't bust droughts, they just create run off, which is useless and destructive. It takes several months for droughts to end (not that this one is such a bad drought anyway.) This was the worst warm season drought from June to September at JFK since the 1960s. But it’s only 4 months long instead of years long like back then. That’s why there have been no serious water shortages just dry conditions for gardening interests. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Sep 30 Missing Count 1 1965-09-30 6.64 0 2 2022-09-30 7.05 0 3 1970-09-30 7.76 0 4 1948-09-30 8.44 46 5 1951-09-30 8.57 0 6 1957-09-30 8.72 0 7 1980-09-30 9.67 0 8 1995-09-30 9.74 0 9 2005-09-30 10.03 0 10 1998-09-30 10.12 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Good for NJ but pretty lame how the rain just disintegrates as it comes near LI. Hopefully that can change at least a little as the new coastal low gets going. You have over a inch with more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Two day total 1.93 will easily be to 3 after Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You have over a inch with more to come lol many north of NYC have zero and the complaints are coming from those who have 1-2+ so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: lol many north of NYC have zero and the complaints are coming from those who have 1-2+ so far Haha Yeah, I don’t understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 1.65" for the two day total so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Big Jims Videos said: Parts of Forked River Ocean County showing up now on radar with 6 inches of rain totals. Getting pummeled here in Barnegat. Coastal flooding is our biggest concern right now. Thank God this is occurring with half moon near tides. Much stronger and prolonged event than initially anticipated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, dseagull said: Getting pummeled here in Barnegat. Coastal flooding is our biggest concern right now. Thank God this is occurring with half moon near tides. Much stronger and prolonged event than initially anticipated. Looks like 2-3 inches more of rain down by your location yet to come. Models started picking up on this prolonged storm at the end of last week but I agree, it has definitely been more impactful then originally forecasted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, dseagull said: Getting pummeled here in Barnegat. Coastal flooding is our biggest concern right now. Thank God this is occurring with half moon near tides. Much stronger and prolonged event than initially anticipated. Yup. If it was a full moon add on another 8-10 inches of storm tide. That would have put many places into major. This is bad though. Beach erosion is significant here in Bay Head where I am covering this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 Models seem pretty robust for tomorrow into Wednesday. Upton not really on board going 50/50 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was the worst warm season drought from June to September at JFK since the 1960s. But it’s only 4 months long instead of years long like back then. That’s why there have been no serious water shortages just dry conditions for gardening interests. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Sep 30 Missing Count 1 1965-09-30 6.64 0 2 2022-09-30 7.05 0 3 1970-09-30 7.76 0 4 1948-09-30 8.44 46 5 1951-09-30 8.57 0 6 1957-09-30 8.72 0 7 1980-09-30 9.67 0 8 1995-09-30 9.74 0 9 2005-09-30 10.03 0 10 1998-09-30 10.12 0 I remember 1995 quite clearly, that one was awful and led to the wildfires. No measurable precip in August until a weird southward moving front reached us the night before September started! Where does the couplet of June-July 1999 rank, having two months in a row of around half an inch of rain is historic. What about the entire met summer of JJA 1999? I remember we didn't bust the drought until Floyd hit here (right around my birthday on the 15th!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 59*(51/67) or -3. Reached 60 early yesterday---PM was mostly low 50's. Today: 54-58, wind ne.-breezy, cloudy, Rain after 5pm, 50 tomorrow AM. EURO with 3.5" by Wed. PM, other models are under 1". 51*(71%RH) here at 7am. Basically 50-51 all day---50* at 5pm. 49* 8pm-11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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