October 2022

[SnoSki14]

Nice event. Well over an inch of rain, hopefully the Euro is right about Tuesday.

[MJO812]

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for winter.  

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Nice event. Well over an inch of rain, hopefully the Euro is right about Tuesday.

Hi res Nam also

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

Pretty sure Boston hit 100. And you realize the bar for a “hot summer” is the average temp, not the hottest day or two right? This IS an actual science…your gut feelings or opinions mean nothing, the data speaks for itself. 

No there is a big argument for not using average temperatures because that also factors in low temperatures.  That's not how "hot" is defined.  "HOT" is defined by the number of 90 degree days.  The more 90 degree days a summer has, the more hot days a summer has....the data speaks for itself.  90 degrees is the threshold for "HOT" not low temps in the 70s or 80s or whatever.

And last I checked Boston isn't in our region.

 

[scootmandu]

As our dew point continues to drop, down to 39.6 here in NW Suffolk, we got shut out of the rain today. Wind gust last hour, up to 21.7 from ENE.

 

[BxEngine]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No there is a big argument for not using average temperatures because that also factors in low temperatures.  That's not how "hot" is defined.  "HOT" is defined by the number of 90 degree days.  The more 90 degree days a summer has, the more hot days a summer has....the data speaks for itself.  90 degrees is the threshold for "HOT" not low temps in the 70s or 80s or whatever.

And last I checked Boston isn't in our region.

 

Yeah, no thats not how this works. 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Yeah, no thats not how this works. 

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/07/how-hot-is-hot-concentration-of-90-degree-days.html

This uses a more nuanced methology-- it ranks summers by concentration of 90 degree days between first and last.

Looking at records dating back to 1872, the most 90-degree days in a year has been 39 - and it happened twice - in 1991 and 1993.  However, while 1991's occurred over a lengthy span of 23 weeks, 1993's were more concentrated, occurring over five fewer weeks.  1991's hot days, in other words, were more "diluted".  While 1991 experienced 90-degree temperatures during 24% of its "window", 1993's corresponding figure was 31%. 

 

 

Yet, neither of these hot summers come close to 1999.  Although that year had ten fewer 90-degree days, they were concentrated in a sixty-day window.  That means that close to half of the days during its 90-degree window were in the 90s.  And 1988 wasn't far behind, with 33 90-degree days over 77 days (43% concentration).  Four other years with a considerable number of 90-degree days (24 or more) also had a higher concentration of 90-degree temperatures than either 1991 or 1993.  So, you be the judge over which summer was hotter.  

 

 

Even if you go by average temperature (which I don't) 1999 still had the hottest month on record-- July 1999.  Almost tied with July 1966 and July 2010  according to this.

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/07/revisiting-new-york-citys-hottest-summers-.html

• The summer of 1966, New York's second hottest on record, has the honor of having the hottest average monthly high temperature.  Although July 1999 was the hottest month on record based on mean daily temperature (average of the day's high and low), the average high in July 1966 was hotter than July 1999 by 0.1 degree, 90.3° vs 90.2°.  However, July 1999's average low was 3.5 degrees warmer (72.6° vs 69.1°) and that's what easily put it on top. 
•  
•      
• July 2010 missed tying July 1999 as NYC's hottest month on record because of a 0.1 degree difference in average high temperature.  However, 2010's consolation was that it become New York's hottest summer on record because June and August were hotter.  

The same page also mentions how dry 1999 was.  Getting just one inch of rain over 2 months has to be some sort of record.

 

 

• Two of New York's five hottest summers were also extremely dry.  1966 had the the driest summer on record, with every month receiving less than two inches of rain (1.17" in June; 1.25" in July and 1.89" in August).  The summer of 1999 was the fourth driest and featured the second driest June (0.59") and the driest July on record (0.44").  The combined rainfall of those two months was barely more than one inch (average rainfall in June and July is close to eight-and-a-half inches).

[Snowlover11]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for winter.  

hopefully not

[LibertyBell]

Even if you go by average temperature (which I don't) 1999 still had the hottest month on record-- July 1999.  Almost tied with July 1966 and July 2010  according to this.

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/07/revisiting-new-york-citys-hottest-summers-.html

• The summer of 1966, New York's second hottest on record, has the honor of having the hottest average monthly high temperature.  Although July 1999 was the hottest month on record based on mean daily temperature (average of the day's high and low), the average high in July 1966 was hotter than July 1999 by 0.1 degree, 90.3° vs 90.2°.  However, July 1999's average low was 3.5 degrees warmer (72.6° vs 69.1°) and that's what easily put it on top. 
•  
•      
• July 2010 missed tying July 1999 as NYC's hottest month on record because of a 0.1 degree difference in average high temperature.  However, 2010's consolation was that it become New York's hottest summer on record because June and August were hotter.  

The same page also mentions how dry 1999 was.  Getting just one inch of rain over 2 months has to be some sort of record.

 

 

• Two of New York's five hottest summers were also extremely dry.  1966 had the the driest summer on record, with every month receiving less than two inches of rain (1.17" in June; 1.25" in July and 1.89" in August).  The summer of 1999 was the fourth driest and featured the second driest June (0.59") and the driest July on record (0.44").  The combined rainfall of those two months was barely more than one inch (average rainfall in June and July is close to eight-and-a-half inches).

[donsutherland1]

Some photos from along the Long Island Sound this afternoon. There were periods of rain and a gusty wind.

 

[bluewave]

NJ came close to the all-time record number of 90° and 100° days this summer. The average summer high temperature in NJ was 2nd warmest on record at 86.5°. The minimums were further down on the list due to the drier conditions and lower dewpoints.

 

Data for January 1, 2022 through October 2, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	54
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	53
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	50
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	49
Newark Area	ThreadEx	49
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	46
HARRISON	COOP	44
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	43
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	43
CANOE BROOK	COOP	42
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	41

 

Data for January 1, 2022 through October 2, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	6
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6
Newark Area	ThreadEx	6
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	5
CANOE BROOK	COOP	4
HARRISON	COOP	4
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST	COOP	2
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	2
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	1
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	1

 

201006 - 201008	86.5°F	128
202206 - 202208	86.0°F	127
201606 - 201608	85.7°F	126
199906 - 199908	85.6°F	125
202006 - 202008	85.4°F	12

 

202006 - 202008	65.1°F	128
201006 - 201008	64.9°F	127
200506 - 200508	64.8°F	126
202106 - 202108	64.5°F	125
201806 - 201808	64.3°F	124
201106 - 201108	64.1°F	123
201606 - 201608	64.1°F	123
201906 - 201908	64.1°F	123
202206 - 202208	64.1°F	123

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NJ came close to the all-time record number of 90° and 100° days this summer. The average summer high temperature in NJ was 2nd warmest on record at 86.5°. The minimums were further down on the list due to the drier conditions and lower dewpoints.

 

Data for January 1, 2022 through October 2, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	54
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	53
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	50
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	49
Newark Area	ThreadEx	49
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	46
HARRISON	COOP	44
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	43
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	43
CANOE BROOK	COOP	42
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	41

 

Data for January 1, 2022 through October 2, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	6
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6
Newark Area	ThreadEx	6
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	5
CANOE BROOK	COOP	4
HARRISON	COOP	4
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST	COOP	2
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	2
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	1
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	1

 

201006 - 201008	86.5°F	128
202206 - 202208	86.0°F	127
201606 - 201608	85.7°F	126
199906 - 199908	85.6°F	125
202006 - 202008	85.4°F	12

 

202006 - 202008	65.1°F	128
201006 - 201008	64.9°F	127
200506 - 200508	64.8°F	126
202106 - 202108	64.5°F	125
201806 - 201808	64.3°F	124
201106 - 201108	64.1°F	123
201606 - 201608	64.1°F	123
201906 - 201908	64.1°F	123
202206 - 202208	64.1°F	123

 

The 5 straight 100 degree days matched 1993 which was also one of our hottest summers, however in the 1993 stretch it hit 105 twice and in 1993 there were also 9 total 100 degree days (I think EWR matched that too-- not sure.)

What I'm confused about is what kept us from hitting 100 degrees here, Chris?  We hit it 2-3 times even right on the coast in 1993.  We had several days of 95+ but didn't quite hit the century mark.  From the 90s I distinctly remember Craig Allen and others saying as long as we have below normal rainfall and dry summers we can reach 100 because with the ground so dry all the solar heat goes right into heating up the air close to the ground.

Even if we have a sea breeze later in the day, the dry ground causes the temperature to rise so quickly we can reach 100 by noon or even just before.  Our sea breeze doesn't usually kick in until around 2 PM.

I went back to look at how amazing 1999 was with all that concentrated heat-- do you remember another period in NYC history when we received only half an inch of rain in back to back months?

 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What I'm confused about is what kept us from hitting 100 degrees here, Chris?  We hit it 2-3 times even right on the coast in 1993.  We had several days of 95+ but didn't quite hit the century mark.  From the 90s I distinctly remember Craig Allen and others saying as long as we have below normal rainfall and dry summers we can reach 100 because with the ground so dry all the solar heat goes right into heating up the air close to the ground.

The sea breeze front was to our north this summer so the 100s in NYC were limited interior Brooklyn and Queens. Same goes for the higher number of 90° days. We need westerly flow like in 2010 to get a record number of 90s and 100s for our area. Even without a record number of 90s and 100s, the average summer high finished behind 2010. So plenty of days in the upper 80s to boost the highs.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	85.4	0
2	2022	83.8	0
-	2016	83.8	0
-	2011	83.8	0
3	2015	83.3	0
4	2020	83.2	0
-	1971	83.2	0
5	1991	83.1	0
-	1983	83.1	0
-	1949	83.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	83.4	0
2	1999	83.3	0
3	2022	83.0	0
4	2016	82.9	0
5	1966	82.7	0
6	2020	82.4	0
-	1991	82.4	0
7	2011	82.3	0
8	2019	82.0	0
9	2012	81.6	0
10	2018	81.5	0
-	2005	81.5	0

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another mainly cloudy day with showers and some periods of rain possible. It will remain unseasonably cool.

The first 10 days of October are on track to be much cooler than normal despite a brief warmup at the middle of the week. The overall temperature could average 3°-5° below normal during the October 1-10 period.

Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. October 1988 was the coldest exception. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +8.18 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.992 today.

On September 30 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.641 (RMM). The September 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.610 (RMM).

 

[nyrangers1022]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for winter.  

Hopefully all snow stays south of me like this all winter

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sea breeze front was to our north this summer so the 100s in NYC were limited interior Brooklyn and Queens. Same goes for the higher number of 90° days. We need westerly flow like in 2010 to get a record number of 90s and 100s for our area. Even without a record number of 90s and 100s, the average summer high finished behind 2010. So plenty of days in the upper 80s to boost the highs.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	85.4	0
2	2022	83.8	0
-	2016	83.8	0
-	2011	83.8	0
3	2015	83.3	0
4	2020	83.2	0
-	1971	83.2	0
5	1991	83.1	0
-	1983	83.1	0
-	1949	83.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	83.4	0
2	1999	83.3	0
3	2022	83.0	0
4	2016	82.9	0
5	1966	82.7	0
6	2020	82.4	0
-	1991	82.4	0
7	2011	82.3	0
8	2019	82.0	0
9	2012	81.6	0
10	2018	81.5	0
-	2005	81.5	0

Yes, this was my favorite summer in many years....I have to say since the big heat of the early 2010s ended.

Remember earlier in the spring I conjectured that the dryness out west may be migrating further east....do you think this was the first warning shot of drier summers ahead?  I think so, especially combined with the cool phase of the AMO.

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, this was my favorite summer in many years....I have to say since the big heat of the early 2010s ended.

Remember earlier in the spring I conjectured that the dryness out west may be migrating further east....do you think this was the first warning shot of drier summers ahead?  I think so, especially combined with the cool phase of the AMO.

 

The North Atlantic was near the warmest on record for the summer into the early fall. So the traditional AMO phases are getting overpowered by the steady warming of the North Atlantic. It’s just one solid block of warmth these days.

 

 

 

 

[jm1220]

Probably 1” in Long Beach on the extreme south shore so far, less further north where today’s rain has been lighter. Decent event. Hopefully Wed’s storm delivers as well. 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The North Atlantic was near the warmest on record for the summer into the early fall. So the traditional AMO phases are getting overpowered by the steady warming of the North Atlantic. It’s just one solid block of warmth these days.

 

 

 

 

This is why we had a storm with 120 mph gusts hit Nova Scotia.  It was like Sandy, but even stronger (931 mb vs 940 mb and 120 mph vs 100 mph).  I don't know how high the surge was though.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Probably 1” in Long Beach on the extreme south shore so far, less further north where today’s rain has been lighter. Decent event. Hopefully Wed’s storm delivers as well. 

Maybe a little less than 1" I didn't get JFK's final total but they were under 1" last I checked.

Haven't had a 1" rainfall since the beginning of met summer.

 

[Stormlover74]

Wind is really whipping

[donsutherland1]

51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe a little less than 1" I didn't get JFK's final total but they were under 1" last I checked.

Haven't had a 1" rainfall since the beginning of met summer.

 

0.89” yesterday 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

0.89” yesterday 

What were the totals today? 
 

Raining here again now as precipitation moved back in 

[qg_omega]

First rain of day now, cold and raw

[MJO812]

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

What were the totals today? 
 

Raining here again now as precipitation moved back in 

Through 10:30 pm, daily rainfall totals include:

Atlantic City: 2.53" (old record: 1.36", 1961)
Islip: 0.02"
New York City-JFK: 0.17"
New York City-LGA: 0.07"
New York City-NYC: Trace
Newark: 0.51"
Philadelphia: 1.81" (old record: 1.80", 2015)

[psv88]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No there is a big argument for not using average temperatures because that also factors in low temperatures.  That's not how "hot" is defined.  "HOT" is defined by the number of 90 degree days.  The more 90 degree days a summer has, the more hot days a summer has....the data speaks for itself.  90 degrees is the threshold for "HOT" not low temps in the 70s or 80s or whatever.

And last I checked Boston isn't in our region.

 

You said nowhere east of NJ recorded 100. You were wrong, as usual. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.05" of rain so far today.

Picked up 1.22" of rain for the day yesterday

Two day storm total of 2.34"

Current temp 50

[SRRTA22]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for winter.  

I never liked October nor'easters/cool shots in terms of what winter could bring...

To me this indicates we're about to have a warm *** nov-december before we get whopped by a huge storm.

Big storm front end of winter followed by mush is what I'm thinking 

But I'll tell you what..forget what Forky is saying , 

This really is the "seasons of yesteryear" and I think @Volcanic Wintergot it right...that water vapor injection into the stratosphere is playing a major role 

 

[Big Jims Videos]

Definitely drought busting rains for Monmouth and Ocean Counties. We are over 3 inches now for the event with a lot more to come onshore this morning.