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3 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

My Facebook post from 10 years ago. :lol:.   I started full time at my job the day of landfall.   Worked through the night cutting trees out of the roadways while hearing more crashing down.  Our shop got a couple feet of water from the storm surge from the Hudson River

FB_IMG_1666961073556.jpg

Sandy was the big event that convinced me weather was my passion, I was 12 years old at the time lol. I always liked storms before that, starting from when I saw my dad watching coverage of Hurricane Ike on the weather channel, but that was the first time I more or less tracked something from days out

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Tomorrow will be partly sunny and cool. Temperatures will again stay in the 50s in most of the region. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Sunday. Unseasonable warmth will return early next week. The first week of November will likely be much warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +33.65 today. The old record was +19.08 from 2005.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.373 today.

On October 26 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.967 (RMM). The October 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.839 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.9° (1.0° below normal).

 

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Warmer October in New England and cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. So the dividing line between warmer and cooler is right around NYC. Another big ridge over the record warm pool east of New England. This is the 2nd warmest October in Caribou, Maine so far.

ISP….+0.7

FRG…+0.7

HPN….+0.3

JFK…..-0.2

NYC…..-1.3

LGA……-1.4

EWR…..-1.9

 

Time Series Summary for CARIBOU WFO, ME - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 51.4 0
2 2022 50.1 3
3 2021 49.9 0
4 1947 48.8 0
5 1968 48.4 0
6 1995 47.8 0
7 2007 47.6 0
8 1963 47.5 0
9 1970 47.4 0
10 2014 47.3 0


 

EA06F01C-8DC7-4596-A260-94FF2F0552EB.thumb.png.f13690ec30891c296b16725e7c4f3951.png
 

170EC061-B17A-4932-A3C6-DF55EE04C90C.gif.cc9411e32be4ed03b542dad73a5b951d.gif

F94A9E6D-EC26-41C6-8678-96C2E904720A.thumb.jpeg.072800e05dbfc9bddc5503255ccc7687.jpeg

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Warmer October in New England and cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. So the dividing line between warmer and cooler is right around NYC. Another big ridge over the record warm pool east of New England. This is the 2nd warmest October in Caribou, Maine so far.

ISP….+0.7

FRG…+0.7

HPN….+0.3

JFK…..-0.2

NYC…..-1.3

LGA……-1.4

EWR…..-1.9

 

Time Series Summary for CARIBOU WFO, ME - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 51.4 0
2 2022 50.1 3
3 2021 49.9 0
4 1947 48.8 0
5 1968 48.4 0
6 1995 47.8 0
7 2007 47.6 0
8 1963 47.5 0
9 1970 47.4 0
10 2014 47.3 0


 

EA06F01C-8DC7-4596-A260-94FF2F0552EB.thumb.png.f13690ec30891c296b16725e7c4f3951.png
 

170EC061-B17A-4932-A3C6-DF55EE04C90C.gif.cc9411e32be4ed03b542dad73a5b951d.gif

F94A9E6D-EC26-41C6-8678-96C2E904720A.thumb.jpeg.072800e05dbfc9bddc5503255ccc7687.jpeg

Even next week AN…but greatest AN temps solidly North.

 

Following a years-long trend

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The last 3 days of October are averaging   56degs.(49/64) or +3.        The first 7 days of November are averaging  63degs.(58/69) or +12!

Clear sailing to the 9th.      GFS gets goofy at this point(not shown).

1667001600-nFN2LTOKxp8.png

Month to date is  57.2[-1.3].         October should end at  57.1[-0.8].

Reached 62 here yesterday.

Today:    58-62, wind n. to ne., m. sunny, 48 tomorrow AM.

46*(76%RH) here at 7am.       47* at 8am.      48* at 9am.       55* a 1pm.       60* at 3pm.      62* at 3:30pm.      Reached 65* at 4:30pm.      61* at 5pm.    56* at 9pm.     53* at11am.

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On 10/27/2022 at 9:58 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The first week of November continues to look exceptionally warm, especially in parts of Ontario, Quebec, and New England. The New York City area remains on track for a much warmer than normal November 1-7.

image.jpeg.38337e0e79152a0fef7d3f880838c4c3.jpeg

Might be more like warm first 10 days of November, Don?

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmer October in New England and cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. So the dividing line between warmer and cooler is right around NYC. Another big ridge over the record warm pool east of New England. This is the 2nd warmest October in Caribou, Maine so far.

ISP….+0.7

FRG…+0.7

HPN….+0.3

JFK…..-0.2

NYC…..-1.3

LGA……-1.4

EWR…..-1.9

 

Time Series Summary for CARIBOU WFO, ME - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 51.4 0
2 2022 50.1 3
3 2021 49.9 0
4 1947 48.8 0
5 1968 48.4 0
6 1995 47.8 0
7 2007 47.6 0
8 1963 47.5 0
9 1970 47.4 0
10 2014 47.3 0


 

EA06F01C-8DC7-4596-A260-94FF2F0552EB.thumb.png.f13690ec30891c296b16725e7c4f3951.png
 

170EC061-B17A-4932-A3C6-DF55EE04C90C.gif.cc9411e32be4ed03b542dad73a5b951d.gif

F94A9E6D-EC26-41C6-8678-96C2E904720A.thumb.jpeg.072800e05dbfc9bddc5503255ccc7687.jpeg

Chris do these above/below normal numbers mean anything when it depends on which site you're looking at?  We can just say that the month was near normal overall.

 

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Under clear skies and a flood of sunshine, the mercury recovered from a cold start to the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region. Temperatures will continue to moderate tomorrow. Unseasonable warmth will return early next week.

The first week of November will likely be much warmer than normal. The potential exists for the first week to see a mean temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City. Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with such warmth during the first week of November: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average). Overall, November will likely be warmer than normal.

There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +19.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.988 today.

On October 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.729 (RMM). The October 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.968 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.8° (1.1° below normal).

 

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