Intensewind002 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 3 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said: My Facebook post from 10 years ago. . I started full time at my job the day of landfall. Worked through the night cutting trees out of the roadways while hearing more crashing down. Our shop got a couple feet of water from the storm surge from the Hudson River Sandy was the big event that convinced me weather was my passion, I was 12 years old at the time lol. I always liked storms before that, starting from when I saw my dad watching coverage of Hurricane Ike on the weather channel, but that was the first time I more or less tracked something from days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: We've had colder mornings & days this month for manhattan this was very cold mid 40;s stiff breeze and dew point near freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 17 hours ago, CIK62 said: Captain Reno and Benteen arrive on the 11th. Too bad neither can read a topo map and will probably get lost. good reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 If it stays clear tonight, I wouldn't be surprised for some frost in parts of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Breeze has died down, low-to-mid 50s…Red sky sunset looking west towards the Van Wyck in Jamaica. Beautiful evening. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, guinness77 said: Breeze has died down, low-to-mid 50s…Red sky sunset looking west towards the Van Wyck in Jamaica. Beautiful evening. Yea that sky was something to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 8 hours ago, nycwinter said: fist time i wore my winter coast since last spring felt good... Winter coat? Are you a coat salesperson or a gloves salesperson? Which is it? 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and cool. Temperatures will again stay in the 50s in most of the region. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Sunday. Unseasonable warmth will return early next week. The first week of November will likely be much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +33.65 today. The old record was +19.08 from 2005. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.373 today. On October 26 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.967 (RMM). The October 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.839 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.9° (1.0° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Already dropping below 40 in Muttontown, down to 43 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Warmer October in New England and cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. So the dividing line between warmer and cooler is right around NYC. Another big ridge over the record warm pool east of New England. This is the 2nd warmest October in Caribou, Maine so far. ISP….+0.7 FRG…+0.7 HPN….+0.3 JFK…..-0.2 NYC…..-1.3 LGA……-1.4 EWR…..-1.9 Time Series Summary for CARIBOU WFO, ME - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 51.4 0 2 2022 50.1 3 3 2021 49.9 0 4 1947 48.8 0 5 1968 48.4 0 6 1995 47.8 0 7 2007 47.6 0 8 1963 47.5 0 9 1970 47.4 0 10 2014 47.3 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Warmer October in New England and cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. So the dividing line between warmer and cooler is right around NYC. Another big ridge over the record warm pool east of New England. This is the 2nd warmest October in Caribou, Maine so far. ISP….+0.7 FRG…+0.7 HPN….+0.3 JFK…..-0.2 NYC…..-1.3 LGA……-1.4 EWR…..-1.9 Time Series Summary for CARIBOU WFO, ME - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 51.4 0 2 2022 50.1 3 3 2021 49.9 0 4 1947 48.8 0 5 1968 48.4 0 6 1995 47.8 0 7 2007 47.6 0 8 1963 47.5 0 9 1970 47.4 0 10 2014 47.3 0 Even next week AN…but greatest AN temps solidly North. Following a years-long trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 The last 3 days of October are averaging 56degs.(49/64) or +3. The first 7 days of November are averaging 63degs.(58/69) or +12! Clear sailing to the 9th. GFS gets goofy at this point(not shown). Month to date is 57.2[-1.3]. October should end at 57.1[-0.8]. Reached 62 here yesterday. Today: 58-62, wind n. to ne., m. sunny, 48 tomorrow AM. 46*(76%RH) here at 7am. 47* at 8am. 48* at 9am. 55* a 1pm. 60* at 3pm. 62* at 3:30pm. Reached 65* at 4:30pm. 61* at 5pm. 56* at 9pm. 53* at11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Overnight low 35. Some mid 20's coldest NW NJ locations. The 19 degree reading is suspect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 31 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 On 10/27/2022 at 9:58 PM, donsutherland1 said: The first week of November continues to look exceptionally warm, especially in parts of Ontario, Quebec, and New England. The New York City area remains on track for a much warmer than normal November 1-7. Might be more like warm first 10 days of November, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Warmer October in New England and cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. So the dividing line between warmer and cooler is right around NYC. Another big ridge over the record warm pool east of New England. This is the 2nd warmest October in Caribou, Maine so far. ISP….+0.7 FRG…+0.7 HPN….+0.3 JFK…..-0.2 NYC…..-1.3 LGA……-1.4 EWR…..-1.9 Time Series Summary for CARIBOU WFO, ME - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 51.4 0 2 2022 50.1 3 3 2021 49.9 0 4 1947 48.8 0 5 1968 48.4 0 6 1995 47.8 0 7 2007 47.6 0 8 1963 47.5 0 9 1970 47.4 0 10 2014 47.3 0 Chris do these above/below normal numbers mean anything when it depends on which site you're looking at? We can just say that the month was near normal overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 27 for the low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 On 10/27/2022 at 4:05 PM, forkyfork said: it's nice to have weather to look forward to again How is it that Forky's posts always get the most different kinds of emojis? He maxed out with all 6 different kinds here lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Might be more like warm first 10 days of November, Don? The 10 days will be warm, but the first week could be even warmer overall. 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Might be more like warm first 10 days of November, Don? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Might be more like warm first 10 days of November, Don? Let it torch in November for all I could care as long as we flip to a colder regime around Thanksgiving. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Holy crap GFS. That's Dec 2015 type heat for November Insane anomalies, 80s for highs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Holy crap GFS. That's Dec 2015 type heat for November Insane anomalies, 80s for highs For January, February and March as well please 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 enjoying these chilly morning in the city feels like winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 37 this morning. no freeze here yet, lowest to date was 34. With the next 2 weeks looking like a torch, our first freeze will be later than normal out here. Usually we have a first freeze around 11/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Nov. 01 thru Nov.11 = 64degs.(58/71) or +13. Currently in CI @4:30pm>>>65. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Under crystal clear skies and brilliant sunshine, the temperature rose into the upper 50s and even lower 60s across the region. Fall foliage is increasing in coverage in southern Westchester County. Some photos: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Under clear skies and a flood of sunshine, the mercury recovered from a cold start to the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region. Temperatures will continue to moderate tomorrow. Unseasonable warmth will return early next week. The first week of November will likely be much warmer than normal. The potential exists for the first week to see a mean temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City. Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with such warmth during the first week of November: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average). Overall, November will likely be warmer than normal. There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +19.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.988 today. On October 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.729 (RMM). The October 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.968 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.8° (1.1° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Under crystal clear skies and brilliant sunshine, the temperature rose into the upper 50s and even lower 60s across the region. Fall foliage is increasing in coverage in southern Westchester County. Some photos: Beautiful photography work! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 27 for the low 27 for a low here as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 27 minutes ago, MANDA said: Beautiful photography work! Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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