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8 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the models that busted last night's forecast are dry tuesday and vice versa. i have a better feeling about part two than part one

You called it...the bust I mean.  I mean that you said the models were going to bust...

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Through 6 pm EDT, rainfall amounts are:

Bridgeport: 0.36"
Islip: 0.51"
New York City-JFK: 0.87"
New York City-LGA: 0.63"
New York City-NYC: 0.58"
Newark: 0.61"
Philadelphia: 0.88"
Westhampton: 1.38" (old record: 1.23", 1958)

Additional light rain is possible tonight and tomorrow. From New York City and its nearby suburbs southward, a general 0.50"-1.50" storm total rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely tomorrow through Sunday. Most locations in that area will see the lower part of that range.

The first 10 days of October will be much cooler than normal despite a brief warmup at the middle of next week. The overall temperature could average 3°-5° below normal during the October 1-10 period.

Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. October 1988 was the coldest exception. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +17.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.646 today.

On September 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.608 (RMM). The September 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.367 (RMM).

 

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