wdrag Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 06z/21 EC op with spotty 4+ (yellow) by Monday evening. My guess is more coming Tue-Wed... timing and details/location throughout uncertain but here's another example of steadfast EC on a substantial event for a portion of our area...still favored LI/CT where inverted trough resides. Seems like an interesting entire week upcoming (to me) for substantial rainfall. Not a lock of course, but pattern to me favors continued s-sw flow aloft all week with pulses of jet energy developing clusters of showery nne moving rains along and e of the Apps. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 60degs.(55/66) or +5. Month to date is 56.7[-3.2]. Should be 57.6[-0.9] by the 29th. Reached 61 here yesterday. Today: 60-64, wind sw., m. sunny. 49*(71%RH) here at 7am. 52* at 9am. 54* at 10am. 56* at Noon. 57* at 1pm. 62* at 3pm. Reached 63* at 5pm. 57* at 9pm. Except for a little wrinkle near Halloween, it is AN All the Way. The Rossby Wave output does not have BN setting up shop around here till mid-Nov. (not shown) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 28 minutes ago, wdrag said: 06z/21 EC op with spotty 4+ (yellow) by Monday evening. My guess is more coming Tue-Wed... timing and details/location throughout uncertain but here's another example of steadfast EC on a substantial event for a portion of our area...still favored LI/CT where inverted trough resides. Seems like an interesting entire week upcoming (to me) for substantial rainfall. Not a lock of course, but pattern to me favors continued s-sw flow aloft all week with pulses of jet energy developing clusters of showery nne moving rains along and e of the Apps. This is one time I'm not rooting for the heaviest rains. Did some lawn repair (over seeding) to some areas that never recovered from the Summer dryness. I'll happily take .5" over a few days with showers / mist and drizzle to keep things moist. Don't need anything heavy to wash away the seed. EURO has had this to one degree or another for a while. Other guidance much less consistency. I see new version of the GFS is going to be released later in November. That should be interesting for the winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: What's causing the warmest departures to always go to our North? Is it because of the sea breeze and further north position of the ridge? More onshore flow when the record ridge axis extends east of New England like we are getting again this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 Frost everywhere this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 got down to 35F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Ideally you want a high to come down over eastern Ontario over Georgian Bay or Michigan with a low pressure area in the W ATL...this gives you a N flow...we have had these setups many times the last 50-60 years but too often the air mass or 850s are too warm....you look at the 1942 below 0 setup as one example and the setup is one we saw a few times last winter but 850s were -23C vs -15C and snow was on the ground. The high straight down the Hudson is tricky because often in that case you do not have enough wind for urban areas to go below 0...this was a good example...4-5 inches of snow fell but the lack of wind lows were only 3-7 in the metro and as you see 850s just were not that cold...similar setups to that say pre 1960 you likely had colder mid levels. NARR MAP SEQUENCE FOR 02/07/1993/ (psu.edu) Was that why we didn't go below zero in 2004? I thought we had a shot that winter. 2015 was another winter where it was super cold -- I guess the cold just came in too late (February vs January)? Then again we somehow went below zero in February 2016 on Valentines Day in the middle of a mild winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 1 hour ago, MANDA said: This is one time I'm not rooting for the heaviest rains. Did some lawn repair (over seeding) to some areas that never recovered from the Summer dryness. I'll happily take .5" over a few days with showers / mist and drizzle to keep things moist. Don't need anything heavy to wash away the seed. EURO has had this to one degree or another for a while. Other guidance much less consistency. I see new version of the GFS is going to be released later in November. That should be interesting for the winter. Having it be cloudy for 3-4 days is bad enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 1 hour ago, wdrag said: 06z/21 EC op with spotty 4+ (yellow) by Monday evening. My guess is more coming Tue-Wed... timing and details/location throughout uncertain but here's another example of steadfast EC on a substantial event for a portion of our area...still favored LI/CT where inverted trough resides. Seems like an interesting entire week upcoming (to me) for substantial rainfall. Not a lock of course, but pattern to me favors continued s-sw flow aloft all week with pulses of jet energy developing clusters of showery nne moving rains along and e of the Apps. lol this in winter would cause some headaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Frost everywhere this morning Still not enough to damage the plants in the vegetable garden though. Got down to 34 here for the 3rd morning in a row, but it looks as if it will be quite awhile before it gets this cold again. No sign of any more cold shots in the long range. Looks as if the growing season will go into early november for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 Did we just have an earthquake? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I look forward to the year 19234 lol. Is there any way to guesstimate what the temperatures might have been here in 1934? I know there were some Long Island weather stations active around then....anyone in SW Nassau? I guess there was no ob from ISP that day. I guess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 TRASH FORECASTING?.......... {47/60} is probably Normal here. And no rain at all this Sun/Mon-----but suddenly 3"+ next Sun/Mon,. shows up instead. (not shown) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Did we just have an earthquake? sorry dropped my leftovers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Did we just have an earthquake? Nah that was my wife stomping across the house pissed off at me 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 10 hours ago, MANDA said: This is one time I'm not rooting for the heaviest rains. Did some lawn repair (over seeding) to some areas that never recovered from the Summer dryness. I'll happily take .5" over a few days with showers / mist and drizzle to keep things moist. Don't need anything heavy to wash away the seed. EURO has had this to one degree or another for a while. Other guidance much less consistency. I see new version of the GFS is going to be released later in November. That should be interesting for the winter. Yes, still too much variability but 12z EC op continues narrow band 4+ by 00z/Thu. You'll probably get your wish for Sun-Wed but... eventually even NJ will get into the act as EPS/GEPS ensembles in early Nov are notably above normal qpf. Of interest is how fast the central Atlc storm (sub trop?) can push west. Seems like latest 12z/21 guidance is strengthening as it moves west. Also Roslyn in the east Pac... seems to have a moisture bead eventually spewiing into a portion of the eastern USA. How it all melds is unknown for me, but for myself, worthy of monitoring 23rd-Nov 5 around here. Too much trough to our south and southwest to ignore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 44 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Nah that was my wife stomping across the house pissed off at me Your a brave man gravity. Either that or you have access to a sub forum safe house. As always … 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Tomorrow will be another sunny day. Temperatures will surge into the middle and upper 60s. Some locations will likely reach or exceed 70°. The second half of the weekend will see clouds increase. A period of rain is likely from late Sunday into Monday. Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City will likely see 0.25"-0.75" of rain. There will likely be a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain east of New York City into southern New England, including Bridgeport, Islip, and Boston. Afterward, with the MJO currently in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures. The latest guidance suggests that the closing week of October could have a mean temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City. That would rank among the 10 warmest closing weeks of October on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +7.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.136 today. On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.129 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.280 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.3° (0.6° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said: sorry dropped my leftovers. No other reports here and nothing on the USGS site. It must have been a nearby truck or something. Windows rattled a lot for several seconds. My wife noticed it too and she was in her car in the garage at that moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 I recall feeling a 2.-something earthquake located off the Jersey Shore back in 2016. I noticed the clothes hangers swaying back and forth for about 40 seconds. Nothing else moved. Then I saw a tweet from the USGS shortly afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow will be another sunny day. Temperatures will surge into the middle and upper 60s. Some locations will likely reach or exceed 70°. The second half of the weekend will see clouds increase. A period of rain is likely from late Sunday into Monday. Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City will likely see 0.25"-0.75" of rain. There will likely be a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain east of New York City into southern New England, including Bridgeport, Islip, and Boston. Afterward, with the MJO currently in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures. The latest guidance suggests that the closing week of October could have a mean temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City. That would rank among the 10 warmest closing weeks of October on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +7.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.136 today. On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.129 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.280 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.3° (0.6° below normal). Looks like October may finish right at or near normal, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 5 hours ago, Cfa said: I recall feeling a 2.-something earthquake located off the Jersey Shore back in 2016. I noticed the clothes hangers swaying back and forth for about 40 seconds. Nothing else moved. Then I saw a tweet from the USGS shortly afterwards. The only earthquake I ever remember feeling over here was the big one back in August 2011 a week before Irene hit. I enjoyed that, hope we have it again sometime. It was a nice 5.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 69° Rain will overspread the area tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 62.8° Newark: 30-Year: 63.7°; 15-Year: 64.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.9°; 15-Year: 65.3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like October may finish right at or near normal, Don? IMO, the month will be 0.5 degrees to 1.0 degrees below normal in most of the region. Yesterday’s guidance may have been a bit aggressive on the closing week’s warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: IMO, the month will be 0.5 degrees to 1.0 degrees below normal in most of the region. Yesterday’s guidance may have been a bit aggressive on the closing week’s warmth. Clouds & showers will put a lid on maximum temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(56/67) or +6. Month to date is 56.6[-3.3]. Should be 57.8[-0.6] by the 30th. Reached 63 here yesterday. Today: 67-70, wind sw. to e., m. sunny. 54 tomorrow AM. 52*(76%RH) at 7am. 55* at 9am. 59* at Noon. 60* at 1pm. 63* at 3pm. Reached 64* briefly. 58* at 10pm. BN is still Bye-Bye along 74N for the whole run: GFS similar till Nov. 01. Hurricane action again for P.R. or Lesser Antilies on Nov. 04???-not shown. The season so far has an ACE of 84(should be 115+) and started 7 weeks late!---so another storm not going to bust any record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 11 hours ago, Cfa said: I recall feeling a 2.-something earthquake located off the Jersey Shore back in 2016. I noticed the clothes hangers swaying back and forth for about 40 seconds. Nothing else moved. Then I saw a tweet from the USGS shortly afterwards. I remember laying on my couch and feeling like I was rolling side to side. We had another earthquake one winter, maybe 2018? Early morning, got out of shower, drying myself off, I hear a rumble in the distance, moving quickly towards me, felt like it passed under my feet with a slight shake. Felt like a cartoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Models still can't figure out tomorrow's rain. Nam is wettest of course. Rgem basically dry west of Nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 just say no to weak model generated coastals 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 70 degrees here. Another spectacular day. Yesterday I went up to Swartswood Park in Sussex County. So much beautiful color. As others have said, we're having a spectacular fall foliage season this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now