October 2022

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This happens every year. Also Dulles is nowhere near downtown

Tallahassee was at 31 this morning 

[rclab]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Tallahassee was at 31 this morning 

Good morning Anthony. Some locations, even considerably south of us benefit  from elevation and/or radiational cooling. We, with our nice warm, wet, coastal ‘urban’ plain neighbor produce radiational heating. Stay well, as always ….

[Dark Star]

8 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning Anthony. Some locations, even considerably south of us benefit  from elevation and/or radiational cooling. We, with our nice warm, wet, coastal ‘urban’ plain neighbor produce radiational heating. Stay well, as always ….

It's a given that a cold continental air mass plunges down through the center of the country (normally), then moderates as it moves east.  I know Tallahassee is in the "panhandle: but can it really be that much elevated or inland to be colder than NJ?

[North and West]

Beautiful 

As I am an idiot, what does this mean?


.

[MJO812]

Just now, North and West said:

As an idiot, what does this mean?


.

Nice ridging out west. Would help pump up the PNA ridge. 

[North and West]

Nice ridging out west. Would help pump up the PNA ridge. 

.

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

It's a given that a cold continental air mass plunges down through the center of the country (normally), then moderates as it moves east.  I know Tallahassee is in the "panhandle: but can it really be that much elevated or inland to be colder than NJ?

well it is due south of eastern michigan

[TWCCraig]

21 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have an extensive tropical garden here on campus on the uws and everything is fine. I’m talking actual tropical plants too. I was a little worried the low dews and wind might bother them but we should go deep into November before I dig them up and pot them and give them out to professors for their offices over the winter. I’ll call it adopt a plant.


.

Off-topic, but any windmill palms, needle palms, or sabal minors? I'm into "zone-pushing" these kinds of plants, actually have several of them in the ground for several years now. Mature needle palms and sabal minors can handle most winters here. I've never needed to protect them, they've been through temperatures as low of 3 degrees completely unprotected, minimal tip burn at worst. Windmills need protection though, I make a wood frame for each of them, which can be a hassle since they're getting big now, and then cover with a tarp. I only cover them below 15 degrees or in a big snowstorm, as the melting and refreezing of the snow can damage the crown. Here's a picture of one of them that I didn't protect after the January 7th snowstorm this past winter. It's a crazy little hobby, but it's pretty cool come winter time. I'm amazed at the amount of cold these plants can tolerate, that plus the snow makes the winter time pretty interesting. If we ever have a month like February 2015 again, I'm sure some wouldn't make it. Still fun to try though!

[bluewave]

General warm up as the PNA becomes more negative going forward. Looks like the warm spots may sneak in a few 70° days. But the highest departures should miss to our north. So areas especially further west may be able to hold the cold departures for the month.

EWR….-4.3

NYC…..-3.1

HPN……-1.3

JFK…….-2.1

LGA…..-3.0

ISP…….-1.0
 

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

It's a given that a cold continental air mass plunges down through the center of the country (normally), then moderates as it moves east.  I know Tallahassee is in the "panhandle: but can it really be that much elevated or inland to be colder than NJ?

We get our coldest weather when the cold air out of Canada comes right down the Hudson Valley or east across the eastern Great Lakes. This cold air mass went south to the Gulf of Mexico. We got the fringe affect. 

It is unusual for a place like Tallahassee to be colder than our area but it happens,though rarely. Dulles is about 25 miles west of D.C. and it is not unusual for them to be colder than us, especially coastal areas. 

[Fantom X]

2 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

Off-topic, but any windmill palms, needle palms, or sabal minors? I'm into "zone-pushing" these kinds of plants, actually have several of them in the ground for several years now. Mature needle palms and sabal minors can handle most winters here. I've never needed to protect them, they've been through temperatures as low of 3 degrees completely unprotected, minimal tip burn at worst. Windmills need protection though, I make a wood frame for each of them, which can be a hassle since they're getting big now, and then cover with a tarp. I only cover them below 15 degrees or in a big snowstorm, as the melting and refreezing of the snow can damage the crown. Here's a picture of one of them that I didn't protect after the January 7th snowstorm this past winter. It's a crazy little hobby, but it's pretty cool come winter time. I'm amazed at the amount of cold these plants can tolerate, that plus the snow makes the winter time pretty interesting. If we ever have a month like February 2015 again, I'm sure some wouldn't make it. Still fun to try though!

When i lived in Shirley, I planted a windmill in 2010. I covered with burlap each winter but it succumbed to the cold Feb 2015 we had. 

[Cfa]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Tallahassee was at 31 this morning 

Tallahassee has the same all time record low as JFK (-2°F).

[Dan76]

12 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Tallahassee has the same all time record low as JFK (-2°F).

Maybe Ant needs to move to Tallahassee for a colder climate 

[Cfa]

3 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

Off-topic, but any windmill palms, needle palms, or sabal minors? I'm into "zone-pushing" these kinds of plants, actually have several of them in the ground for several years now. Mature needle palms and sabal minors can handle most winters here. I've never needed to protect them, they've been through temperatures as low of 3 degrees completely unprotected, minimal tip burn at worst. Windmills need protection though, I make a wood frame for each of them, which can be a hassle since they're getting big now, and then cover with a tarp. I only cover them below 15 degrees or in a big snowstorm, as the melting and refreezing of the snow can damage the crown. Here's a picture of one of them that I didn't protect after the January 7th snowstorm this past winter. It's a crazy little hobby, but it's pretty cool come winter time. I'm amazed at the amount of cold these plants can tolerate, that plus the snow makes the winter time pretty interesting. If we ever have a month like February 2015 again, I'm sure some wouldn't make it. Still fun to try though!

I have all three (and more) in pots. I had two Sabal minors planted at a relative’s house, one unfortunately succumbed to the drought this summer, the other looked awful but recovered once the rains returned.

Manhattan windmill palms (2019), as you can see the one on the right is deceased:

[lee59]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Tallahassee has the same all time record low as JFK (-2°F).

To be fair that record low at Tallahassee was in 1899. I don't think JFK goes back nearly that far but I'm not sure.

[donsutherland1]

Today saw slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday. Tomorrow will be several degrees warmer and the weekend will see temperatures surge into the middle and perhaps upper 60s.

However, a period of rain is likely from late Sunday into Monday. The potential exists for a moderate rainfall.

Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +1.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.266 today.

On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.129 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.280 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (1.1° below normal).

 

[lee59]

After a cold night on Tuesday, the last 2 nights here have been more mild than I thought it would be. Last night only 44 and tonight it is only down to 53. I think the wsw wind brought enough ocean air to keep things mild.

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, lee59 said:

After a cold night on Tuesday, the last 2 nights here have been more mild than I thought it would be. Last night only 44 and tonight it is only down to 53. I think the wsw wind brought enough ocean air to keep things mild.

45 here, was 34 this morning. Weird you’re so much warmer 

[NorthShoreWx]

On 10/20/2022 at 1:26 PM, Cfa said:

Tallahassee has the same all time record low as JFK (-2°F).

Feb 1899.  I'd bet the area where JFK now stands was colder than Tallahassee in Feb 1899, and probably colder than -2 other times too, although not recently.  I wonder how cold it got around JFK in February 1934, among other dates.

[NorthShoreWx]

34° in Smithtown Thursday morning.  Was 35° Wednesday morning.  Our growing season continues, at least on paper.  Veggie garden is surviving, not really growing anymore, but still stuff to harvest.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly cloudy and somewhat milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 62°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 66°

Rain could arrive on Sunday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 62.6°; 15-Year: 63.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 64.1°; 15-Year: 65.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.3°; 15-Year: 65.7°

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, Dark Star said:

It's a given that a cold continental air mass plunges down through the center of the country (normally), then moderates as it moves east.  I know Tallahassee is in the "panhandle: but can it really be that much elevated or inland to be colder than NJ?

Why dont we get airmasses that move down the Hudson Valley anymore?

They always seem to go west of us and then south.

Time to build a wall and divert that air here.

 

[wdrag]

Unsure whether anyone has posted on potential for heavy rain in our NYC subforum: Since last weekend when the EPS caught my eye on the southeastern USA closed low. The EC op has cyclically for I think at least 6 consecutive 12z/00z cycles been forecasting spotty 5" amounts by Wed night the 27th.  It's location has varied across mostly LI/CT. So while it is likely to be spread out between Sunday afternoon-Wed night... it may become of interest for a few of our members.  GEPS and GEFS not as enthusiastic so no guarantee.  

Fairly impressive long duration general southerly flow aloft/inverted trough. EPS has 2" LI by Wednesday. Could be a little thunder too, especially LI.

Myself here in nw NJ, am anticipating several outdoor activity interruptions late Sunday-Thursday in periods of showery rains/drizzle.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Feb 1899.  I'd bet the area where JFK now stands was colder than Tallahassee in Feb 1899, and probably colder than -2 other times too, although not recently.  I wonder how cold it got around JFK in February 19234, among other dates.

I look forward to the year 19234 lol.

Is there any way to guesstimate what the temperatures might have been here in 1934? I know there were some Long Island weather stations active around then....anyone in SW Nassau?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, lee59 said:

After a cold night on Tuesday, the last 2 nights here have been more mild than I thought it would be. Last night only 44 and tonight it is only down to 53. I think the wsw wind brought enough ocean air to keep things mild.

yep south shore effect

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

General warm up as the PNA becomes more negative going forward. Looks like the warm spots may sneak in a few 70° days. But the highest departures should miss to our north. So areas especially further west may be able to hold the cold departures for the month.

EWR….-4.3

NYC…..-3.1

HPN……-1.3

JFK…….-2.1

LGA…..-3.0

ISP…….-1.0
 

 

What's causing the warmest departures to always go to our North? Is it because of the sea breeze and further north position of the ridge?

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What's causing the warmest departures to always go to our North? Is it because of the sea breeze and further north position of the ridge?

That has def been a trend I noticed too.

 

Back to today, widespread low temp differentials this morning from 45F at EWR to 52F at LGA to 37F at HPN

[lee59]

My temperature was 53 at 11pm last night, then the wind died down and the temperature dropped fast. 37 this morning.

[FPizz]

30.9, coldest so far

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Why dont we get airmasses that move down the Hudson Valley anymore?

They always seem to go west of us and then south.

Time to build a wall and divert that air here.

 

Ideally you want a high to come down over eastern Ontario over Georgian Bay or Michigan with a low pressure area in the W ATL...this gives you a N flow...we have had these setups many times the last 50-60 years but too often the air mass or 850s are too warm....you look at the 1942 below 0 setup as one example and the setup is one we saw a few times last winter but 850s were -23C vs -15C and snow was on the ground.  The high straight down the Hudson is tricky because often in that case you do not have enough wind for urban areas to go below 0...this was a good example...4-5 inches of snow fell but the lack of wind lows were only 3-7 in the metro and as you see 850s just were not that cold...similar setups to that say pre 1960 you likely had colder mid levels.

 

NARR MAP SEQUENCE FOR 02/07/1993/ (psu.edu)