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1 minute ago, bkviking said:

Sudden crash of thunder followed by lightning here in Smithtown. Wasn’t paying attention to radar past hours or so but it held together quite nicely …

As Rjay said, favoring typical areas. Poured in Babylon, few drops in brightwaters 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 56°

Newark: 59°

Philadelphia: 58°

Tomorrow will be another very cool day.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 63.6°; 15-Year: 64.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 65.2°; 15-Year: 66.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.4°; 15-Year: 67.0°

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The next 8 days are averaging  57degs.(51/64) or +1.

Month to date is  57.9[-2.5].       Should be 57.6[-1.4] by the 26th.        Throwing in the last 6 days of October at  65degs.(60/70) or +11!, October would actually end near +1.0----having completely wiped out the the negative 45 degree head start.

The 22nd. still looks like the trip point and has for 10 days.

NB.    The EURO has about 4" of rain next Mon/Tues, so maybe something in the atmosphere gets shuffled.

DUBIOUS:

 

1666720800-IuCiVBHeJLY.png

Meanwhile......Back at the Ranch......Where Is My Cold Air?

1666072800-yp2VbM7yHIM.png

Reached 69 here yesterday.

Today:    56-59, wind w., clearing by Noon, 44 by tomorrow AM.    

49*(47%RH) here at 7am.    53* at Noon.       57* at 3pm.       Reached 60* at 4:30pm.       53* at 7pm.       49* at 11pm.

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Rainfall .54" from late afternoon / evening showers.  Moderate to heavy at times.  No thunder or lightning observed.  Two day event total = .63".  Cold morning.  Low temperature 36.  Dipped to freezing or just below at usual Sussex County cold spots.  Looks cold tonight with widespread frost.  Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings posted over most of NJ.  Metro and L.I. left out but think some frost L.I. cold spots in play.

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Attached: Event total for yesterday, and the combined two event totals late last week and yesterday. Click for clarity.

Final batch of heavier rain was further east (E LI) where its still raining a bit at this time with only T-.05 NJ coast NYC overnight. 

Yesterday: Yankee evening game was rained out, lightning here and there and a few reports of small hail but rainfall not quite as heavy as expected. Still decent.  

Onward to what may or may not happen late Sunday-Monday in our NYC subform.  OKX has responded in its early morning forecast with a 30% chance of showers. That's all you need right now to permit stakeholder consideration of uncertainty. 

Screen Shot 2022-10-18 at 8.47.19 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-18 at 8.48.38 AM.png

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Expecting a freeze tonight. No reason why cold won't over perform with light winds, clear skies & dry air mass. 

Unbelievably I was .7F away from my first freeze at inland Toms River at the beginning of the month. Tempest recorded 32.7. Wondering if we’ll meet or exceed that, but I do notice a pattern since I got my Tempest last winter that we meet or exceed the forecasted lows in my location especially following cooldowns. 
 

Also, what’s the early thinking for November? I’m almost inclined to say let it torch if it means we’ll be in a better position for a good pattern DJF. Most of our Novembers the past few years have been cool, this year would be an interesting flip of October and November assuming the rest of October doesn’t overcome the BN anomaly. 

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging  57degs.(51/64) or +1.

Month to date is  57.9[-2.5].       Should be 57.6[-1.4] by the 26th.        Throwing in the last 6 days of October at  65degs.(60/70) or +11!, October would actually end near +1.0----having completely wiped out the the negative 45 degree head start.

The 22nd. still looks like the trip point and has for 10 days.

NB.    The EURO has about 4" of rain next Mon/Tues, so maybe something in the atmosphere gets shuffled.

DUBIOUS:

 

1666720800-IuCiVBHeJLY.png

Meanwhile......Back at Ranch......Where Is My Cold Air?

1666072800-yp2VbM7yHIM.png

Reached 69 here yesterday.

Today:    56-59, wind w., clearing by Noon, 44 by tomorrow AM.

49*(47%RH) here at 7am.

6.10" inches of rain here?!-- you know thats WRONG  I would apply the 1/6 rule lol

 

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14 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Attached: Event total for yesterday, and the combined two event totals late last week and yesterday. Click for clarity.

Final batch of heavier rain was further east (E LI) where its still raining a bit at this time with only T-.05 NJ coast NYC overnight. 

Yesterday: Yankee evening game was rained out, lightning here and there and a few reports of small hail but rainfall not quite as heavy as expected. Still decent.  

Onward to what may or may not happen late Sunday-Monday in our NYC subform.  OKX has responded in its early morning forecast with a 30% chance of showers. That's all you need right now to permit stakeholder consideration of uncertainty. 

Screen Shot 2022-10-18 at 8.47.19 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-18 at 8.48.38 AM.png

They should have played through the rain, that was not enough rain to cancel a baseball game lol

 

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1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Rainfall .54" from late afternoon / evening showers.  Moderate to heavy at times.  No thunder or lightning observed.  Two day event total = .63".  Cold morning.  Low temperature 36.  Dipped to freezing or just below at usual Sussex County cold spots.  Looks cold tonight with widespread frost.  Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings posted over most of NJ.  Metro and L.I. left out but think some frost L.I. cold spots in play.

Metro wasnt left out. I have a frost advisory. 

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Expecting a freeze tonight. No reason why cold won't over perform with light winds, clear skies & dry air mass. 

You certainly could be right, but I'm hoping the forecast of mid 30s ends up being correct. I'd like to see the growing season continue. I've always noticed that my tomatoes and peppers in the garden are ok as long as the temp stays a couple degrees above freezing. Hopefully we can get through the next couple nights, because the long range pattern looks nice and warm. We can probably extend the growing season until early november if we can avoid a freeze the next couple nights. It's going to be close though.

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14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

You certainly could be right, but I'm hoping the forecast of mid 30s ends up being correct. I'd like to see the growing season continue. I've always noticed that my tomatoes and peppers in the garden are ok as long as the temp stays a couple degrees above freezing. Hopefully we can get through the next couple nights, because the long range pattern looks nice and warm. We can probably extend the growing season until early november if we can avoid a freeze the next couple nights. It's going to be close though.

Forecast low is 34 to 36 for our area so I think we just miss a freeze. SMQ will be 23 lol

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

They should have played through the rain, that was not enough rain to cancel a baseball game lol

 

I was at that debacle last night. I was constantly monitoring the radar and while it was certainly a tricky call earlier in the evening, it was clear that by 830 the rain would last for at least another hour. It should have been called then.

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

big difference in UHI between queens and nyack 

Of course. Theres also a big difference in every day weather between manhattan college parkway and beach 35th street. But that doesnt change definitions. If people are discussing the city and urban NE nj, say that. Im closer to central park than all of suffolk county. 

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46 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

You certainly could be right, but I'm hoping the forecast of mid 30s ends up being correct. I'd like to see the growing season continue. I've always noticed that my tomatoes and peppers in the garden are ok as long as the temp stays a couple degrees above freezing. Hopefully we can get through the next couple nights, because the long range pattern looks nice and warm. We can probably extend the growing season until early november if we can avoid a freeze the next couple nights. It's going to be close though.

Yup. Cold right now is really just using heating oil unnecessarily and killing the last fresh veggies out of the garden. I'd be fine with it if it didn't get much below 40 until it's about to snow. 

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