donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy and warm. There will be some showers, especially during the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 68° Much cooler air will move into the region by tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 64.0°; 15-Year: 64.8° Newark: 30-Year: 65.5°; 15-Year: 66.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.7°; 15-Year: 67.4° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Although it will turn colder, it looks like the center of the cold air will be to our south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 The cold departures get much smaller east of the Hudson this month. NJ has had some of the coldest departures in the area. More cold this week centered west of NYC will enhance this pattern. Then models indicate a warm up later in the month. So we’ll see if the cold departures can hold especially east of NYC with the coming warm up. EWR….-4.6 TTN….-4.2 HPN….-1.0 LGA….-2.7 JFK….-2.1 ISP…..-0.6 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 .09" in predawn showers. Looks rather dry over the next week or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 19 hours ago, BxEngine said: And sunset at 3:30 pm Sounds like Iceland this time of year. Wife and I headed there at the end of the month for our ten year anniversary! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Interesting that three of those records are from 2002! And Seattle beat their previous record by 16 degrees?! Is there a record for how many degrees a previous record is beaten by lol? Seattle beat its daily record high temperature by 16°F (tied for the 2nd largest margin). There are 14 days on which the margin of record is 10°F or above, with a disproportionate share of such days occurring since 2015. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(51/64) or Normal. Month to date is 57.8[-2.8]. Should be 57.5[-1.8] by the 25th. Using the last 7 days of the month at 55degs.(50/60) or +1, October ends at 56.9[-1.0]. Reached 70 here yesterday. Today: 59-63, wind s. to w., cloudy, rain by 6pm.<0.2", 50 tomorrow AM. 59*(90%RH) here at 7am. 60* at 8am. 62* at 10am. 64* at Noon. 66* at 1pm. 68* at 2pm. Reached 69* at 4pm. 63* at 6pm. 58* at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 2 hours ago, MANDA said: .09" in predawn showers. Looks rather dry over the next week or so. Saw something amazing an hour ago. It was raining and the sun came out, very bright, at the same time it was raining! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The cold departures get much smaller east of the Hudson this month. NJ has had some of the coldest departures in the area. More cold this week centered west of NYC will enhance this pattern. Then models indicate a warm up later in the month. So we’ll see if the cold departures can hold especially east of NYC with the coming warm up. EWR….-4.6 TTN….-4.2 HPN….-1.0 LGA….-2.7 JFK….-2.1 ISP…..-0.6 Looks like November will be warm too, that's what the CPC is going with correct? Long range forecast is for eastern warmth for the next few months. Warmer the further east you go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Seattle beat its daily record high temperature by 16°F (tied for the 2nd largest margin). There are 14 days on which the margin of record is 10°F or above, with a disproportionate share of such days occurring since 2015. That sounds like what we had on October 2, 2018.....didn't JFK hit 95 or 96? We beat our previous record high by a wide margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: Sounds like Iceland this time of year. Wife and I headed there at the end of the month for our ten year anniversary! Iceland is gorgeous and the Northern Lights there are absolutely amazing. Absolutely worth it to have a long night there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Iceland is gorgeous and the Northern Lights there are absolutely amazing. Absolutely worth it to have a long night there. Buddy of mine is there rn. Says it is amazing and sent pictures of norther lights last night. Thinking of making this a stopover to break up the flight to France or something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Pouring now. Ground has been soaked for the past few weeks. The leaves have changed earliest than in maybe the past decade. I wonder if the drought played a role? Beautiful colors out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That sounds like what we had on October 2, 2018.....didn't JFK hit 95 or 96? We beat our previous record high by a wide margin. It was 95, which beat the prior record by 10 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 3 hours ago, psv88 said: Pouring now. Ground has been soaked for the past few weeks. The leaves have changed earliest than in maybe the past decade. I wonder if the drought played a role? Beautiful colors out there. We’re still predominantly green still on the south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 3 hours ago, psv88 said: Pouring now. Ground has been soaked for the past few weeks. The leaves have changed earliest than in maybe the past decade. I wonder if the drought played a role? Beautiful colors out there. Yeah, same here with the color. It seems earlier than what we've been used to and the color is really good. A few trees are past peak even and now dropping leaves quickly. Would be nice to not have to do a last leaf cleanup in December haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 14 hours ago, Rjay said: Thanks for visiting the subforum. You've been down there 4 years? Yes time flies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Looks like a squall line might push through this evening ahead of the front Good shear and lapse rates plus more sunshine than forecast so some storms are possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like a squall line might push through this evening ahead of the front Good shear and lapse rates plus more sunshine than forecast so some storms are possible Squall line on radar in northwest NJ now heading east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Can confirm the squall. Pouring. Temp 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Already many reports of 0.1-0.5" today just w of I95 and over parts of LI. Lightning today through about 6P, attached. I feel like forecasters are quitting the rain too soon. Front slowing with still TD 50 MSV/NJ at 630P... with cooling 500MB. Am expecting another decent batch of most (isolated TRW+) rainfall to develop as a wave along the front across NJ crossing LI CT 10P-4A. Yankee game may have some rain problems from the initial dying batch of showers crossing I95. I just see too much rushing the drying in here. Too much sw flow at high levels. Wantage 0.14" at 650P and continuing to rain. Had thunder here this afternoon. Also have seen mPING small hail reports from se NYS to ePA. Will try to send a wrap up CoCoRAHs rainfall report at 9A Tue. Have a good night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 It rained hard but ended quickly, .24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 The next 45 on the CFS. Now That's the Way..... mmm mmm A-Hah..... I Like It! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Anyone notice recent EPS and to a lesser extent GEPS/GEFS qpf late Sunday-Monday the 23rd-24th. Just heard some bright dry forecasts in that time frame. Have my doubts... and I'd play it cautious about promising dry weather in that time frame. WPC has a hint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 Picked up .36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 A cold front is crossing the region. In its wake, much cooler air will cover the region through Friday. Tomorrow will be a chilly with readings rising only into the 50s. Moderation is possible during the weekend. There will be a risk of precipitation. Chicago could see the mercury reach 32° for the first time this season tomorrow or Wednesday morning. Last year, Chicago's first freeze occurred on November 2. The last freeze at least as early as the one that is forecast occurred on October 13, 2018. Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +18.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.815 today. On October 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.684 (RMM). The October 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.050 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.5° (1.4° below normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 Decent line development just to my west of brightwaters, but it looks like it’s going to pass to my north unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Decent line development just to my west of brightwaters, but it looks like it’s going to pass to my north unfortunately Formed on the outflow boundary and will hit the same areas as it usually does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Formed on the outflow boundary and will hit the same areas as it usually does. Yeah. Not Brightwaters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 Sudden crash of thunder followed by lightning here in Smithtown. Wasn’t paying attention to radar past hours or so but it held together quite nicely … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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