October 2022

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Big pattern change coming up to warmer after this week as the PNA reverses and we get back to more of a La Niña SE Ridge.

 

 

 

At this point would you say that November looks like it will be above normal?

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

As far as I know there are no prospects to push this bill forward. 

And if anything were to happen it wouldn't go into effect until 2024

It already passed the US House and Senate and the President signed it last year. It goes into effect in 2023. This March, we change the clocks for the final time and go on permanent Daylight Savings from now on

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

The areas which will hate this the most are the western edges of the timezones.  Columbus, Ohio, for example, will have roughly an *8:50AM* sunrise for most of December/January.  Are there studies which really show that pretending it is later than it is all year will have a statistically significant effect on energy usage?  Does that outweigh the side effects, such as the legitimate concern that all the kids will be going to school in the dark - the concern that largely squashed this years ago?

On a non-scientific note, if this happens, I'll miss the early sunsets in the fall/winter.  It was always a sign that snow/holidays/family season was upon us.  Plus the Christmas lights can be on as early as 4PM and be noticeable.

Ramble over.

 

 

 

 

Agree with all.  Especially second paragraph.  I as well will miss the early sunsets for the same reasons. 

[MANDA]

52 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It would have been better if we were on Standard time all year.  In our 24 hr society, I don't believe those old studies about energy usage apply anymore.  On top of that besides what you cited about children going to school in the dark, the other problem that goes away by keeping Standard time all year long is the health impact of switching back and forth between the two.

 

Agree.  If we are going to switch to one I'd rather it be Standard time as well. 

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It already passed the US House and Senate and the President signed it last year. It goes into effect in 2023. This March, we change the clocks for the final time and go on permanent Daylight Savings from now on

This is not correct. It only passed the Senate, not the house. The house not even put this on its calendar. 

[the_other_guy]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It already passed the US House and Senate and the President signed it last year. It goes into effect in 2023. This March, we change the clocks for the final time and go on permanent Daylight Savings from now on

Can’t wait for the significant increase in accidents from barely awake people on the way to work and school in the dark.

 

How stupid to give into uninformed mob rule yelling at clouds.

 

It gets dark early because you live in the north during the winter solstice

[uofmiami]

 

[forkyfork]

kewr is a cold outlier and should be investigated 

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Can’t wait for the significant increase in accidents from barely awake people on the way to work and school in the dark.

 

How stupid to give into uninformed mob rule yelling at clouds.

 

It gets dark early because you live in the north during the winter solstice

Standard makes a lot more sense.

Oh boo hoo it gets dark early in winter, I'd rather have that than dark mornings. Of course the bill was proposed by a Florida senator 

We also tried this in the 70s with disastrous results 

[FleetwoodWx]

The Bill hasn’t passed the US House, the President hasn’t signed anything. It passed the Senate on a technicality which many senators were surprised about (that’s another story). Bottom line no changes yet. 

[BxEngine]

Christ guys if youre gonna pontificate at least get the facts correct. 

[forkyfork]

sunrise should be at noon

[BxEngine]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

sunrise should be at noon

And sunset at 3:30 pm

[ebwx]

Concerning the discussion of the clock changes, here is a great link from the Sleep Foundation 

 

https://www.sleepfoundation.org/sleep-news/latest-updates-daylight-saving-time-legislation-change

[rclab]

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

sunrise should be at noon

 

19 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

And sunset at 3:30 pm

There goes all our great sun angle posts. As always …

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It already passed the US House and Senate and the President signed it last year. It goes into effect in 2023. This March, we change the clocks for the final time and go on permanent Daylight Savings from now on

Not correct-the house has not voted on it.  I was at a neighborhood gathering recently and I was surprised how many people had this incorrect info.  My guess is that we will continue to argue about it twice a year for the next 25 yrs...

[Brian5671]

Iceland was great-sunrise at 10:45am and sunset around 3:30-the sun barely broke the horizon-good for snowpack retention LOL

[Cfa]

Shift time by 30 minutes instead of an hour and make everyone happy.

[Nibor]

Has anyone just kindly asked the sun to be around longer?

[BxEngine]

8 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Has anyone just kindly asked the sun to be around longer?

Libertybell did but it came in 14 consecutive text messages and the sun chose to ignore it. 

[forkyfork]

just set 10 pm to whenever the sunset is

[wdrag]

Back to weather: TT tomorrow up to 51 (EC) in the first bunch of convection. Could be interesting near NYC with a small hailer? and or/thunder?  WPC qpf issued the past couple of cycles looks too conservative and I saw SPC shifted the thunder risk eastward of NYC.  Not sure why...but they probably have more and better guidance than I. 

 

I can see running less less than 0.1 near TTN-ABE otherwise I can see two bands of showers, one in the morning 4A-11A and one late day or night with occurrence sometime between 4P Mon-4A Tue. The yield I think may be more similar to the 12z/15 EC/RGEM/HRDPS. That said: I think the12z/15  GFS & SPC HREF are too conservative.  

To me this is an interesting event, despite the overall boring summer-early fall.  By the way NYC reservoir now within 7% of capacity...still low but ok and slightly closer to norm. Will post Tue around 9A the combined two event totals (late last week and tomorrow's).  

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

just set 10 pm to whenever the sunset is

[HailMan06]

Does anyone know what that big smoke plume is by Bergen/Rockland counties?

[Rtd208]

3 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

Does anyone know what that big smoke plume is by Bergen/Rockland counties?

3rd alarm structure fire in Upper Saddle River.

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies, readings again climbed into the 60s across the region. Out West, it was another day of exceptional heat in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle recorded its highest temperature so late in the season and its second highest October reading on record. Only October 1, 1987 (89°) had a higher temperature. Bellingham, WA set an October monthly record. Its previous latest 80° temperature occurred on September 28, 2003 and again on September 28, 2017.

Preliminary high temperatures included:
Abbotsford, BC: 79° (old record: 76°, 2002)
Bellingham, WA: 80° (old record: 71°, 2015 and 2018) ***New October Record***
Portland: 85° (old record: 80°, 2002)
Seattle: 88° (old record: 72°, 2018)
Vancouver: 68° (old record: 66°, 1997)
Victoria: 75° (old record: 71°, 2002)

Much cooler air will move into the region early this week. Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures rising into the 60s. A shower is possible tomorrow as a cold front cross the region.

Behind the front, temperatures will rise no higher than the 50s through Thursday in many parts of the region. Moderation is possible during the weekend.

Chicago will likely see the mercury reach 32° for the first time this season late tomorrow or Tuesday morning. Last year, Chicago's first freeze occurred on November 2. The last freeze at least as early as the one that is forecast occurred on October 13, 2018.

Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +24.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.978 today.

On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.047 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.852 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.3° (1.6° below normal).

 

 

[Fantom X]

Back on LI for 2 weeks. Just love the marine influence smell here.  Something I really took for granted while I lived here and never noticed that much until I moved away.   Even though it was coolish today, the air had a humid Martine feel that I now miss living in central NC.

Below is a photo taken at the TWA memorial at Smith Point Beach around 6pm today where it was in the low 60s at that time. 

 

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, Fantom X said:

Back on LI for 2 weeks. Just love the marine influence smell here.  Something I really took for granted while I lived here and never noticed that much until I moved away.   Even though it was coolish today, the air had a humid Martine feel that I now miss living in central NC.

Below is a photo taken at the TWA memorial at Smith Point Beach around 6pm today where it was in the low 60s at that time. 

 

Thanks for visiting the subforum.  You've been down there 4 years?

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Libertybell did but it came in 14 consecutive text messages and the sun chose to ignore it. 

We should just find a way to change that annoying tilt of the earth's axis and make it straight up down.

Hey if we can move an asteroid out of the way who knows what else we can do.

#dreams of a perfectionist

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under partly sunny skies, readings again climbed into the 60s across the region. Out West, it was another day of exceptional heat in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle recorded its highest temperature so late in the season and its second highest October reading on record. Only October 1, 1987 (89°) had a higher temperature. Bellingham, WA set an October monthly record. Its previous latest 80° temperature occurred on September 28, 2003 and again on September 28, 2017.

Preliminary high temperatures included:
Abbotsford, BC: 79° (old record: 76°, 2002)
Bellingham, WA: 80° (old record: 71°, 2015 and 2018) ***New October Record***
Portland: 85° (old record: 80°, 2002)
Seattle: 88° (old record: 72°, 2018)
Vancouver: 68° (old record: 66°, 1997)
Victoria: 75° (old record: 71°, 2002)

Much cooler air will move into the region early this week. Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures rising into the 60s. A shower is possible tomorrow as a cold front cross the region.

Behind the front, temperatures will rise no higher than the 50s through Thursday in many parts of the region. Moderation is possible during the weekend.

Chicago will likely see the mercury reach 32° for the first time this season late tomorrow or Tuesday morning. Last year, Chicago's first freeze occurred on November 2. The last freeze at least as early as the one that is forecast occurred on October 13, 2018.

Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +24.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.978 today.

On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.047 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.852 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.3° (1.6° below normal).

 

 

Interesting that three of those records are from 2002!  And Seattle beat their previous record by 16 degrees?!  Is there a record for how many degrees a previous record is beaten by lol?