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The next 8 days are averaging  58degs.(52/64) or Normal.

Month to date is  57.3[-4.1].       Should be  57.6[-2.5] by the 21st.

Reached 65 here yesterday.

Today:  66-68, wind s. to se., cloudy, rain by 2pm., 58 tomorrow AM.      Maybe 0.5"-1.0".

62*(98%RH) at 7am.     65* at 10am.       66* at Noon.

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13 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The disturbance that will feed into this feature is moving up along the VA/MD coast currently.  Interesting to watch the radar and watch this all evolve.

Models have been mostly focused on two bands of heavier precip with this event.  One over eastern PA and the other over at least parts of LI and CT.  I am up to 0.37 on the day with the former.  12z Euro looks good for LI and CT with the later.

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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Models have been mostly focused on two bands of heavier precip with this event.  One over eastern PA and the other over at least parts of LI and CT.  I am up to 0.37 on the day with the former.  12z Euro looks good for LI and CT with the later.

Been pouring here during the past couple of hours.  Now at 1.04” for the day.

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2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Models have been mostly focused on two bands of heavier precip with this event.  One over eastern PA and the other over at least parts of LI and CT.  I am up to 0.37 on the day with the former.  12z Euro looks good for LI and CT with the later.

looking at radar off the DE/MD coast it seems like that batch could slip even further east just eyeballing it...

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Just got back from Resorts Catskills in Monticello.  Decent rain there earlier.  Got home, looked like hasn't rained at all here. 

 

 Foliage looked nice up there.   Luckily I broke even earlier today after last night, took me a 3 card straight flush, 5 card straight and a 5 card flush to get me back to even :lol:

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After perhaps some early showers, sunshine will return tomorrow. It will remain mild. The mild weather will continue into the weekend.

However, more cold air could begin to arrive late in the weekend or just afterward. Early next week could turn much cooler.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +22.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.968 today.

On October 11 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.619 (RMM). The October 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.332 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.0° (1.9° below normal).

 

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