October 2022

[Volcanic Winter]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sayonara to my Poconos growing season, it was in the 20s there.  Still got awhile to go here-- it's very rare to get an October freeze where I am right now-- it's only happened twice in the last 30 years.

Are you near MJX? They have sandy soil and radiate heat as well as FOK does.

I’m several miles north of it. Very close to western border of Manchester. 
 

I’ve found it’s a pretty good location for coastal storms because I’m far enough inland to generally avoid storms that mix right at the coast. 
 

Commute up to near EWR for work. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m several miles north of it. Very close to western border of Manchester. 
 

I’ve found it’s a pretty good location for coastal storms because I’m far enough inland to generally avoid storms that mix right at the coast. 
 

Commute up to near EWR for work. 

That is-- I notice it's a local hot spot for snowfall maxes lol.

You also do better in the storms that slide "under" NYC

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The AO and NAO are different indices. There can be cases where they are in different states. Wave lengths are still relatively short, so the influence of the AO+ has been offset.

Well, that is unusual-- but the NAO is slightly positive right now isnt it-- forecast to go negative in about a week?

Also, I remember a correlation that was posted that the AO and NAO are in tandem about 80% of the time (the same sign).

 

[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That is-- I notice it's a local hot spot for snowfall maxes lol.

You also do better in the storms that slide "under" NYC

Yeah, I really can’t complain given how far south I am overall. It’s still a pretty nice location that tends to do well in the larger ECS’s. I miss more of the small events especially with a north / south division of rain and snow. 
 

Was also frustratingly north of the big ACY storm last Jan, but we had a really good month overall and had 16” on 1/29. Can’t complain about that at all. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, I really can’t complain given how far south I am overall. It’s still a pretty nice location that tends to do well in the larger ECS’s. I miss more of the small events especially with a north / south division of rain and snow. 
 

Was also frustratingly north of the big ACY storm last Jan, but we had a really good month overall and had 16” on 1/29. Can’t complain about that at all. 

Nope, we got just over a foot so can't complain here either, we get a bit of the central/south NJ storms as they come up just offshore.

 

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The AO and NAO are different indices. There can be cases where they are in different states. Wave lengths are still relatively short, so the influence of the AO+ has been offset.

Thank you

[bluewave]

It was a near record positive AO for October. But the wave break produced very strong blocking over the EPO and PNA regions. So we were much colder than usual for such a strong +AO pattern. That’s why our sensible weather is often driven by a combination of teleconnections rather than just one exclusively. The AO and NAO blocking will increase day 6-10 as another wave breaker storm cuts through the Great Lakes.
 

[Volcanic Winter]

What would be the difference between having say just the NAO negative vs having both AO and NAO negative? I have a decent level of basic comprehension of this stuff, but I’m still learning certainly. 
 

When both are negative are we more likely to see a broader, deeper trough over the eastern seaboard? Easier to sustain? Better pipeline for Canadian Arctic air? What would the actual impact, let’s say, of having both negative vs one or the other. I know this varies, I’m just asking in terms of average forcing or pattern. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Well, that is unusual-- but the NAO is slightly positive right now isnt it-- forecast to go negative in about a week?

Also, I remember a correlation that was posted that the AO and NAO are in tandem about 80% of the time (the same sign).

 

It was historic. Recently, the AO was +3.000 or above while the NAO was negative on two consecutive days for the first time on record.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It was historic. Recently, the AO was +3.000 or above while the NAO was negative on two consecutive days for the first time on record.

Don, what do you think is causing this historic behavior? Is it because of that recurving typhoon?

 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What would be the difference between having say just the NAO negative vs having both AO and NAO negative? I have a decent level of basic comprehension of this stuff, but I’m still learning certainly. 
 

When both are negative are we more likely to see a broader, deeper trough over the eastern seaboard? Easier to sustain? Better pipeline for Canadian Arctic air? What would the actual impact, let’s say, of having both negative vs one or the other. I know this varies, I’m just asking in terms of average forcing or pattern. 

Intuitively, I would say a lot of mixing events?  Maybe the 1993-94 winter was like this for that reason?

Perhaps this pattern is so inherently chaotic that predictability of storm snowfall amounts and p-type percentages would be very low unless within 48 hours of an event (lower than they'd normally be anyway.)

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, what do you think is causing this historic behavior? Is it because of that recurving typhoon?

 

That probably played a role. Greenland’s record September warmth likely also set the stage.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

That probably played a role. Greenland’s record September warmth likely also set the stage.

Yeah, record Southern Greenland blocking lead to the record heat and melt for September. 
 

 

[donsutherland1]

At New York City, the first 10 days of October had a mean temperature of 56.3°. That was 5.6° below normal.

Mean temperatures for select cities were:

Boston: 57.2°/0.9° below normal (coolest since 2016)
Bridgeport: 55.6°/4.5° below normal (coolest since 2003)
Islip: 56.7°/3.0° below normal (coolest since 2003)
New York City: 56.3°/5.6° below normal (coolest since 2003)
Newark: 53.9°/8.2° below normal (coolest since 1965) ***tied as the 3rd coolest first 10 days of October***
Philadelphia: 57.3°/5.7° below normal (coolest since 2003)

The remainder of the week will see milder temperatures. Highs will mainly reach the middle and upper 60s. The temperature could reach or exceed 70° during the peak of the warmth. However, more cold air could arrive late in the week sending readings below normal for another weekend into early next week.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +17.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.117 today. That broke the previous daily record high of +3.037 from 2001.

On October 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.936 (RMM). The October 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.817 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.0° below normal).

 

[TriPol]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At New York City, the first 10 days of October had a mean temperature of 56.3°. That was 5.6° below normal.

Mean temperatures for select cities were:

Boston: 57.2°/0.9° below normal (coolest since 2016)
Bridgeport: 55.6°/4.5° below normal (coolest since 2003)
Islip: 56.7°/3.0° below normal (coolest since 2003)
New York City: 56.3°/5.6° below normal (coolest since 2003)
Newark: 53.9°/8.2° below normal (coolest since 1965) ***tied as the 3rd coolest first 10 days of October***
Philadelphia: 57.3°/5.7° below normal (coolest since 2003)

The remainder of the week will see milder temperatures. Highs will mainly reach the middle and upper 60s. The temperature could reach or exceed 70° during the peak of the warmth. However, more cold air could arrive late in the week sending readings below normal for another weekend into early next week.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +17.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.117 today. That broke the previous daily record high of +3.037 from 2001.

On October 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.936 (RMM). The October 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.817 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.0° below normal).

 

What percentage of colder than normal octobers lead to cold and snowy winters?

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 74°

Slightly cooler air will arrive to end the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 66.2°; 15-Year: 67.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 67.8°; 15-Year: 69.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 70.0°

[wdrag]

I just haven't had the time to review, but if someone looks at colder than normal Octobers and associated CP snow above or below, can you add NOV. I do remember local research in BOS (Pannuto etal) that both colder than normal Oct-Nov, favored above normal snowfall up there for the winter.

As you're probably aware,  the GFS had outlooked a couple of operational cycles of accumulating snow in the northwest part of our subform (~18th) a few days ago. Then much more recently the EC OP.  I prefer no significant snow (1"+) prior to mid November in nw NJ--- early big snows don't seem to favor a big winter.  So, am hoping the combined events of this Thu-early Fri and next Tue-Wed (I know the GFS and GGEM ops have dropped the second one), do not result in any snow around here. The EC continues steadfast on early next week 1"+ rain. Interesting.

Overall, the EPS continues showing a pretty large positive departure on the weekly qpf here,  ending the 19th.  RGEM is also impressive.  You saw this mornings SPC D3 marginal risk for Thu near the Delaware River and have attached  the WPC excessive rain outlook.  I suspect the WPC qpf outlook for at least NJ/se NYS/ne PA is a little conservative based on RGEM and trends of the EC.  Noting also that a stripe potential of 3+ may be starting to show up by 12z Friday in our subform.

 

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  62degs.(56/68) or +3.

Month to date is  56.3[-5.4].        Should be  58.9[-1.7] by the 19th.

Reached 70 here yesterday.

Today:   69-72, wind w., p. sunny, 58 tomorrow AM.

Rain on Thurs/Fri back down to 1".      GFS seems to confine the BN period to Oct. 18-21.      Near 70 till then and back to the 70's thereafter---as jet stream goes flat.    EC and WC flip by the 22nd.      For October to finish AN as originally predicted, the rest of the month would still need to be  54/21 or about +2.5.

GFS Hovmoller:        EURO is further west with the lowest heights.

54*(70%RH) here at 7am.       55* at 8am.        61* at 11am.       65* at 2pm.      68* at 3pm.     Reached 69* at 4pm.       63* at 7pm.

[SACRUS]

Down to 40 here and on the way to low 70s.  Been a very splendid few days back in the area.  Next shot at rain Thu (10/13) and into Fri, before clearing out for another nice and mainly  dry and seasonal weekend. Slight chance of showers Sat night into Sunday.  Beyond there more near normal through mid week Wed (10/17) , with next blast of cool coming Wed (10/18) and lasting into next weekend 10/21.

  Beyond there to end the month it does look less torughy and ridge along the coast - warmer but could be wetter.

[SACRUS]

Record warmth 11 years ago on this date in 2011 with mid / upper 80s throughout NJ/NYC.  Same in 1949 record highs.  Record lows in 1929  / 1979 down below ferezing.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, TriPol said:

What percentage of colder than normal octobers lead to cold and snowy winters?

There is a greater tendency for cold Octobers to be followed by near normal or colder than normal winters than for cold Octobers to be followed by snowy winters. Below is a summary from 1950-51 through 2021-2022 for New York City's Central Park. October 2022 appears likely to meet the threshold (56.5° or below mean temperature) for a cold October during the period covered. Numerous earlier Octobers were colder and that would skew the numbers given the warming that has occurred. Probabilities of snowier outcomes may also be modestly higher than shown, as winters have become snowier, in general (1991-2020 period) than during the early part of the covered period (1951-80).

For the cold October and November cases, the four winters with 40" or more snowfall had a December mean temperature below 38.5°. Three of the four cases with 15" or less snowfall had December mean temperatures at or above 38.5°. December 1958 was the single exception with a mean temperature of 29.3°.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, record Southern Greenland blocking lead to the record heat and melt for September. 
 

 

This was the first time I've ever seen Greenland in the forecast cone of a TC!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There is a greater tendency for cold Octobers to be followed by near normal or colder than normal winters than for cold Octobers to be followed by snowy winters. Below is a summary from 1950-51 through 2021-2022 for New York City's Central Park. October 2022 appears likely to meet the threshold (56.5° or below mean temperature) for a cold October during the period covered. Numerous earlier Octobers were colder and that would skew the numbers given the warming that has occurred. Probabilities of snowier outcomes may also be modestly higher than shown, as winters have become snowier, in general (1991-2020 period) than during the early part of the covered period (1951-80).

For the cold October and November cases, the four winters with 40" or more snowfall had a December mean temperature below 38.5°. Three of the four cases with 15" or less snowfall had December mean temperatures at or above 38.5°. December 1958 was the single exception with a mean temperature of 29.3°.

 

Don, what about Cold October followed by Mild November? Some of our snowiest winters had this combo.

 

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There is a greater tendency for cold Octobers to be followed by near normal or colder than normal winters than for cold Octobers to be followed by snowy winters. Below is a summary from 1950-51 through 2021-2022 for New York City's Central Park. October 2022 appears likely to meet the threshold (56.5° or below mean temperature) for a cold October during the period covered. Numerous earlier Octobers were colder and that would skew the numbers given the warming that has occurred. Probabilities of snowier outcomes may also be modestly higher than shown, as winters have become snowier, in general (1991-2020 period) than during the early part of the covered period (1951-80).

For the cold October and November cases, the four winters with 40" or more snowfall had a December mean temperature below 38.5°. Three of the four cases with 15" or less snowfall had December mean temperatures at or above 38.5°. December 1958 was the single exception with a mean temperature of 29.3°.

 

Well, I'll invest in a good sweater rather than snowboots then. I just don't want a repeat of October 2011. That winter was miserable.

[Brian5671]

models trending drier with the cold front Thursday night

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, what about Cold October followed by Mild November? Some of our snowiest winters had this combo.

 

Just as with the cold November cases, there was a split between the outcomes: 44% above normal snowfall; 56% below normal snowfall. 38% of cases saw 30" or more snow (all of them had 40" or more). 19% of cases had 50" or more snowfall. 44% of cases also saw less than 20" of snowfall. Mean: 28.8"; Median: 24.5". This was from the same 1950-51 through 2021-22 dataset.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

models trending drier with the cold front Thursday night

Not the cmc

[Brian5671]

CMC is the worst performing model I almost never look at it.

[nyrangers1022]

What a great day.  Currently sitting on my back patio drinking a beer, comfortably in the shade in shorts and T-shirt.  Can't beat this

[JerseyWx]

3 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

What a great day.  Currently sitting on my back patio drinking a beer, comfortably in the shade in shorts and T-shirt.  Can't beat this

Tomorrow through Sunday, with the exception of Thursday's pm rain, look pretty great for mid-October. 

The foliage this year is noticeably earlier than last, with a lot of vibrant colors.  I think these warm sunny days and cool nights have helped.  Last year was so exceptionally AN that it was into November where things started turning.