Allsnow Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It should really ramp up with the cool nights, dry mild days over next week Yup, won’t be late this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 82 for a high today, currently 71 as of 6PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Renegade shower in Melville, LI right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 A cold front is now crossing the region. As a result, another cool weekend lies ahead. All said, the first 10 days of October remain on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +20.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.948 today. On October 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.685 (RMM). The October 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.683 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (1.8° below normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 The last 80 degree reading here was September 19, almost 3 weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Quick-moving shower dropped 0.01" around 650pm after a high of 80°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Just shy of 80F here, still quite mild at 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 79 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 17 hours ago, MANDA said: Very much agree. Hope we can continue some semblance of this into at least part of the winter. NE Pacific warm pool offers some hope as does warmer water vicinity Greenland. Both of those would tend to favor more ridging in those areas. Says nothing about input from MJO etc. Just hope we are not expending the blocking now only to have little or none during the height of winter. Impressive pattern with strong ridge over the western U.S. into Alaska. Cross polar flow! Could be nice cold outbreak in 7-10 days. If this follows the typical pattern of the last few years, we'll get some early season cold shots followed by a big thaw in the middle, followed by more cold and chances for snow towards the end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 18 hours ago, MJO812 said: I'm wearing shorts I turned the a/c on at 4 pm and turned it off after midnight. I have a 75-55 comfortable range. If it's higher than 75 I turn on the a/c. If it's lower than 55 I turn on the heat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 20 hours ago, SACRUS said: Record warmth 25 years ago (gulp) in 1997 with highs in the mid to upper 80s., tied some prior record in 1944. 30s in 1958/1904. That wasn't just some prior record in 1944. 1944 had a much celebrated 11 year pattern summer that was the hottest summer on record back then and far ahead of its time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 21 hours ago, bluewave said: The Euro the has the next strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA. a couple more days in the 70s next week before that happens though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 10 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Renegade shower in Melville, LI right now had heavy rain for a short time just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Another fall like cold front from our yesterday years. From 80 yesterday to 48 currently 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 From 81 to 45 yesterday. In what will likely be the last 80s till March or so. 70s may not be far behind. Possible first or second 30s for inland areas. Game time temp in Flushing looks to be 50 and falling into the 40s. Looking mainly dry through Wed (10/12) with a brief warmup Columbus Day (10/10) and Tue (10/11) back near 70. Strong front comes through and possible low on Thu (10/13) / Fri (10/15). Deep trough moves into the east by next weekend and overall cool / first frost /freezes look possible widespread by 10/17. Beyond there we'll see if the wester ridge is shoved out and we warm up the final week of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 62° The cool weather will continue through Monday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 67.4°; 15-Year: 68.6° Newark: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 70.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.3°; 15-Year: 71.3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 53 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 51 minutes ago, SACRUS said: From 81 to 45 yesterday. In what will likely be the last 80s till March or so. 70s may not be far behind. Possible first or second 30s for inland areas. Game time temp in Flushing looks to be 50 and falling into the 40s. Looking mainly dry through Wed (10/12) with a brief warmup Columbus Day (10/10) and Tue (10/11) back near 70. Strong front comes through and possible low on Thu (10/13) / Fri (10/15). Deep trough moves into the east by next weekend and overall cool / first frost /freezes look possible widespread by 10/17. Beyond there we'll see if the wester ridge is shoved out and we warm up the final week of the month. I don't know if it will be our last 80 degree temperature but the last 80 degrees at Newark and Central Park was on September 21. That seems to be a little early for a last 80 degrees, especially considering how it has been in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, lee59 said: I don't know if it will be our last 80 degree temperature but the last 80 degrees at Newark and Central Park was on September 21. That seems to be a little early for a last 80 degrees, especially considering how it has been in recent years. Nothing on the horizon but we can get a sneaky warm day like yesterday. 70 is never off the table even in December and January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(53/69) or +1. Reached 77* here again, yesterday. Today: 58-62, wind nw., m. sunny, 49 tomorrow AM. No Rain till Thurs/Fri, meanwhile one or more 70's is possible. Draw a vertical line up along 74W and Oct. 11-13 look AN: 51*(62%RH) here at 7am. 50* at 8am. 54* at 10am. 55* at Noon. 57* at 1pm. 60* at 3pm. Reached 62* at 5pm. 54* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 33 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nothing on the horizon but we can get a sneaky warm day like yesterday. 70 is never off the table even in December and January 80 isn't even off the table lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 More clouds than sun so far this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 19 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: 80 isn't even off the table lol A modest ridge like yesterday was enough. Anything more would easily result in widespread 80s however right now that's unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 On 10/7/2022 at 7:19 AM, IrishRob17 said: Could be the first frost of the season up here Sunday morning 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scootmandu Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 A short period of moderate rain, between 3:45 and 4:15 AM (highest rate was .19/hr) dropped .08 inches. Our total for October is now 2.39, after 5.99 in September. Currently 56/42, down from 74/56 same time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Nothing on the horizon but we can get a sneaky warm day like yesterday. 70 is never off the table even in December and January Yeah I mean we've seen 80 in February lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 GFS has a snowstorm at day 10 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 2 hours ago, TWCCraig said: GFS has a snowstorm at day 10 lol Oh well what the heck, let’s post the clown maps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Despite bright sunshine, the temperature only reached 58 degrees in New York City. Some scenes from the New York Botanical Garden: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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