bluewave Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Strong cold front coming up for the weekend with 70s today falling to the 30s and 40s by Sunday morning. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: Strong cold front coming up for the weekend with 70s today falling to the 30s and 40s by Sunday morning. Could be the first frost of the season up here Sunday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 31 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Could be the first frost of the season up here Sunday morning The Euro the has the next strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro has another strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain as the summer dry pattern continues to relax. So more cooler fall temperatures behind that front. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA. That’s cross polar flow so we’ll definitely be chilling down. Hope we can get that to happen for the winter. Likely our first 30s of the season coming for the north shore. Maybe frost if the wind calms down? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That’s cross polar flow so we’ll definitely be chilling down. Hope we can get that to happen for the winter. Likely our first 30s of the season coming for the north shore. Maybe frost if the wind calms down? That North Pacific record warm pool is producing classic October El Niño 500 mb pattern instead of a La Niña. October El Niño composite October La Niña composite 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 63degs.(56/70) or +2. Reached 77 here yesterday. Today: 72-77, wind w. to nw., m. sunny-clouds late, 52 tomorrow AM. No rain for a week. Oct. 14-22 BN temps. 60*(83%RH) here at 7am. 63* at 9am. 65* at 11am. 67* at Noon. 70* at 2pm. 73* at 3pm. 74* at 3:30pm. 76* at 4pm. Reached 77* at 5pm. 62* at 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Not much to add to previous CoCoRahs event post from Thursday. I will say the ensembles had this right for our area...Ian moisture -sfc isobaric pattern impact was big. Just delayed 36 hours from my own prior Sept post anticipation and there wasn't any rain in the METS-Braves series. The drought monitor posted yesterday was incomplete with event rain, but may not show much change next Thursday since it's essentially pretty dry the Tuesday 12z 10/11 weekly time cutoff. Added a couple of graphics from OKX proposed changed to frost-freeze. The climo portion should be of value, though this may have posted here in earlier days. Finally, I am interested in eventual moisture curling northward into the northeast USA from TD13... unsure if it will be 13-14 or possibly a 18-19. EPS is neutral on above-below normal rainfall 10/12-19, certainly wetter than the GEFS-GEPS. May be worthy of monitoring for later next week or the following week. Maybe we can enjoy an overall cooler than normal pattern Oct-Nov??? Wouldn't that a good signal for a snowy winter. Just haven't had that two month combo for years, as I can recall. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 78 Thursday down to 50 and on the way to try and match 78 or even 80 before the front (dry) comes through. Cooler this weekend before a bit of an up/down back and forth bias a bit below normal through mid month when a potential stronger cool down comes through. Either way shots of reinforcing cool, for a day or two moderating a day then cool again till Oct 15. Looking overall dry again, with next shot of rain coming in about a week with the next front 10/13. you wonder if we didnt get the 6 day rains where we'd be in the next two weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Man, seeing the heights dive under NJ elicits a Pavlovian response in me. Over here salivating to see this set up in winter, but absolutely loving the cool start to October (and can appreciate the warmer days today and yesterday for those that want the warmth). I’d really love to see a flat to mildly BN DJF, if only to prove it can still happen for us. Read a couple recent climate papers that were rather depressing, would very much love an unexpectedly potent winter season as opposed to “cold shot, torch, cold shot, torch, torch, torch.” Probably asking too much and setting myself up for disappointment, but hope ain’t dead yet in me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro the has the next strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA. Some places will most likely see snow at the end of this month if this pattern continues . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Strong cold front coming up for the weekend with 70s today falling to the 30s and 40s by Sunday morning. Its way out there but as the current forecasts now, Oct 16 - 18 looks to be potential widespread first frosts/freezes. Still wonder beyond there towards the 20th if we dont shift a bit warmer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Record warmth 25 years ago (gulp) in 1997 with highs in the mid to upper 80s., tied some prior record in 1944. 30s in 1958/1904. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Late next week looks very interesting and potentially stormy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Record warmth 25 years ago (gulp) in 1997 with highs in the mid to upper 80s., tied some prior record in 1944. 30s in 1958/1904. Interestingly 1904 was just after the VEI 6 eruption of Santa Maria (definitely big enough for significant climate impacts) and 1958 was after Bezymianny’s VEI 5 (and several smaller events just preceding; just about big enough). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Front / clouds into WPA nearing CPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Downright hot for 10am in October. Especially in the sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Water temps are in the mid to upper 70's just offshore in an interesting eddy that looks to be feeding off of the Gulf stream. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 I love looking at those, but damn there are so many color coded charts in meteorological data where the differentiation between colors is just a monumental challenge to decipher. I pretty much can’t tell the difference between 57F water and 67F water on that. Eh, it’s probably my eyes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, guinness77 said: Downright hot for 10am in October. Especially in the sun. I'm wearing shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Very much agree. Hope we can continue some semblance of this into at least part of the winter. NE Pacific warm pool offers some hope as does warmer water vicinity Greenland. Both of those would tend to favor more ridging in those areas. Says nothing about input from MJO etc. Just hope we are not expending the blocking now only to have little or none during the height of winter. Impressive pattern with strong ridge over the western U.S. into Alaska. Cross polar flow! Could be nice cold outbreak in 7-10 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Yep, it’s beautiful and I’m excited for the further influx of cool, crisp air. My preferred hiking temperatures. Hopefully will make it up state this fall. Just remembering the major pattern resets between Nov - Dec - Jan - Feb between each month last year. Hoping this is the start of a more entrenched pattern than what we’ve seen lately, but the fact that it came so early is either a good omen for the winter or a bad one IMO (“wasting it” in October). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: All that red on that. And we are one of the few small blue blobs. That sucks 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 78 Here. Front to CPA http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 High of 82. Currently you 78. Literally perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Absolutely perfect. Why can't every day be like this. Of course yesterday I had to use defroster to get moisture off windshield in morning. Realized only driver side was clearing and passenger was still foggy. Passenger side has no heat . Dual climate systems are stupid. Dealer wants over $300 lmao. Bought a $15 actuator, although will be a pain in the butt being its behind the glove compartment. Definitely need to change it before frosts and snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Hit a beautiful 77 degrees here today, lots of 70s thru out the area today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Starting to see some foliage on the trees locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Starting to see some foliage on the trees locally. It should really ramp up with the cool nights, dry mild days over next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Leaf change well under way here. Maples/black walnut and the few remaining ash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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