Rtd208 Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 The 18z NAM is very wet with 2-3" of rain w/locally higher amounts for the NYC metro. Hopefully its right. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Looks like a long duration 1-150 locally. Wouldn’t be surprised if sundays rain is more impressive… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 59 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Well we’ve been burned the other way all summer. I don’t buy any models output at this point. Just wait until it happens/doesn’t happen Hmmmm, I think this is a weather forecasting site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 31 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Hmmmm, I think this is a weather forecasting site? Yeah I know. Feel like Mother Nature’s jilted lover overreacting to a summer of being spurned. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 I don’t count any rain until it’s in the bucket this year. A split like that with the main precip offshore wouldn’t shock me at all. I’m in Long Beach now and anything not regularly irrigated is dead. Horrible to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 i’m thinking it’s just gonna be too dangerous to swim tomorrow idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 September concluded with a monthly mean temperature of 69.6°, which was 0.4° above normal. In large part due to the impact former super typhoon Merbok had on altering the jet stream, cool air has covered the northeastern U.S. to close September. Much or all of the first week of October will see generally cooler than normal readings. Rain will arrive tonight. From New York City and its nearby suburbs southward, a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely tomorrow through Sunday. Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +11.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.451 today. On September 28 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.365 (RMM). The September 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.460 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said: i’m thinking it’s just gonna be too dangerous to swim tomorrow idk Sack up and get your butt in that water boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: I don’t count any rain until it’s in the bucket this year. A split like that with the main precip offshore wouldn’t shock me at all. I’m in Long Beach now and anything not regularly irrigated is dead. Horrible to see. 18z euro has 2-3 inches for LI by Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: i’m thinking it’s just gonna be too dangerous to swim tomorrow idk F around and find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Nibor said: Sack up and get your butt in that water boy. 6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: F around and find out. i was looking at forecasts of 4-6 feet, which is rough but i swam that all day when Earl passed by. now there's a high surf advisory already active for waves up to 8 feet. plus it'll be dogshit weather out of the water. also there's a barbecue i'm invited to with a hot girl there. hot girl and meat vs drowning and being laughed at by everyone here when they find the internet article. choices 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: i was looking at forecasts of 4-6 feet, which is rough but i swam that all day when Earl passed by. now there's a high surf advisory already active for waves up to 8 feet. plus it'll be dogshit weather out of the water. also there's a barbecue i'm invited to with a hot girl there. hot girl and meat vs drowning and being laughed at by everyone here when they find the internet article. choices water before… ya know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: 18z euro has 2-3 inches for LI by Tuesday Gfs has rain tomorrow and Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 Light to moderate rain falling here. Picked up 0.57" of rain so far today. Current temp 53 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 16 hours ago, forkyfork said: looks like offshore convection is going to rob us You tried to tell them. This could’ve been so much more, oh well. Anything is better than nothing these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 congratulations LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 That’s it? Dry models FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 looks like sunday will be the rainy day in nyc complete bust today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Where the hell is the warm air. How could it go away this fast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 .60 so far. Congrats LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Where the hell is the warm air. How could it go away this fast Pattern flip. The ocean hurricane flipped the pattern and now a strat cold shot could be coming mid month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Morning thoughts… Rainfall totals through 8 am include: Bridgeport: 0.22”; Islip: 0.38”; New York City: 0.34”; Newark: 0.35”; Philadelphia: 0.84”; and, Westhampton: 0.63”. Today will cloudy and unseasonably cool. There will be showers and some periods of light rain. Eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut could see some moderate to heavy rain. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 59° Philadelphia: 63° The cool weather will persist until the middle of next week before a brief period of warmer air arrives. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.5° Newark: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 73.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.0°; 15-Year: 74.3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 .57 inch of rain here so far. 53 degrees, breezy NNE wind gusting to 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Another big mehh. The rain split is real obviously, and another general screw job. Hopefully by the end we get to 1" but from here on looks like scattered showers and a blustery/raw day. Just what I was worried about. Any rain is good for the south shore but the drought lives on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Yeah 0.57" here, not surprised by the rain split with the low spinning to the sw and the frontal rains moving nne offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: Where the hell is the warm air. How could it go away this fast October 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Looks like September ended up at 69.5 for Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 10 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: i was looking at forecasts of 4-6 feet, which is rough but i swam that all day when Earl passed by. now there's a high surf advisory already active for waves up to 8 feet. plus it'll be dogshit weather out of the water. also there's a barbecue i'm invited to with a hot girl there. hot girl and meat vs drowning and being laughed at by everyone here when they find the internet article. choices Good morning Will. I wouldn’t laugh unless the hot girl and barbecue were somehow involved. Stay well, even if not celibate. As always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Wow what a bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Still (time sensitive) a very impressive satellite of the remnants storm and still some semblance of a Tropical shrimp tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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