Dark Star Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: up to 2.59. meh compared to central nj You called it; under perform on the front end, over perform on the back end... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 4.05 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 8 hours ago, Dark Star said: Doesn't take much to fill up the reservoirs. Sometimes one good event. Supposedly the real key are winter snows (Summer snows not as much). Reservoir levels are meaningless to my well and dead garden that didn't produce the food I planned for I'm in reservoir land here and I was 25" below average last winter. I was also about 8" shy on liquid precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Today was another cloudy, rainy, and cool day. Newark received 1.61" of rain, which broke the daily record of 0.93" from 2006. It will remain unseasonably cool through tomorrow. Some additional rain or showers are likely. Afterward, a brief period of warmer readings will follow before another strong cold front crosses the region on Friday. All said, the first 10 days of October are on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development raises the probability of a cooler exception this month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +32.81 today. The old daily record was +26.36, which was set in 2010. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.066 today. On October 2 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.929 (RMM). The October 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.822 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Storm total since 10/1 up to 2.63”. 1.94” of that has fallen today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 got drenched on the 4 mile jebwalk tonight, no radar is safe longer than 20 minutes with these quasi-feeder bands also the radar returns are low because i guess the drop sizes are small so even moderate green is a soaker i may have trenchfoot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 My storm total so far is 3.15. That is more than the 3.10 I received in July-August-September combined. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 1.60" so far. Moderate rain right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Off and on downpours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Just over 2" here since midnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings in addition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: 1.60" so far. Moderate rain right now. 2.15" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Pouring in these rain bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Loud crack of thunder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 thunder and lightning in manhattan very unusual in these cool temps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 .85 overnight. Over 5.00 for event total 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 5 hours ago, nycwinter said: thunder and lightning in manhattan very unusual in these cool temps We had a thunderstorm yesterday and it was 47 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Woken up by thunder last night...But yea , another crap day today. This is pitiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy with some periods of rain and continued cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 63° Tomorrow will turn warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 69.9° Newark: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.4°; 15-Year: 72.6° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said: Woken up by thunder last night...But yea , another crap day today. This is pitiful Don’t worry tomorrow will be 70 and sunny. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 23 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Don’t worry tomorrow will be 70 and sunny. Will it tho? Sometimes these spinning wheels of crap like to keep the low level clouds around longer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Impressive for Newark to get two record low maxes in a row. This is the first two consecutive records since the Memorial Day weekend in 2021. So the typical warm October La Niña pattern is getting overpowered by the North Pacific warm pool and more Nino-like +PNA. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-04DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/3 52 in 2022 52 in 1974 53 in 1939 10/4 51 in 2022 52 in 1965 55 in 1996+ 5/29 52 in 2021 60 in 1950 60 in 1940 5/30 53 in 2021 53 in 1953 59 in 2017 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 47 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said: Will it tho? Sometimes these spinning wheels of crap like to keep the low level clouds around longer It didnt rain for 3 damn months, can we not? 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 my gf woke up from the thunder and lightning, i was sound asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(54/68) or about -1. Reached 56 here yesterday. Today: 58-62, wind ne., cloudy, Rain at anytime, 56 tomorrow AM. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-74.44,39.06,3000/loc=-73.908,37.846 (time dependent) 56*(99%RH) here at 7am. 58* at 9am. 59* at 11am. 60* at Noon. Reached 62* at 1pm. 58* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 1 hour ago, nyrangers1022 said: Will it tho? Sometimes these spinning wheels of crap like to keep the low level clouds around longer It's as good as gone and it'll be gone for a nice long time. By the way, look towards the south, I can see large gaps in the clouds already with blue patches of sky visible in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Impressive for Newark to get two record low maxes in a row. This is the first two consecutive records since the Memorial Day weekend in 2021. So the typical warm October La Niña pattern is getting overpowered by the North Pacific warm pool and more Nino-like +PNA. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-04DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/3 52 in 2022 52 in 1974 53 in 1939 10/4 51 in 2022 52 in 1965 55 in 1996+ 5/29 52 in 2021 60 in 1950 60 in 1940 5/30 53 in 2021 53 in 1953 59 in 2017 This is why ENSO centric forecasts are going to have major issues (they've had issues for a few years now.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This is why ENSO centric forecasts are going to have major issues (they've had issues for a few years now.) The best we can do is identify which competing warm pools may pushback against the canonical ENSO expectations in the new era of ongoing marine heatwaves. In the old days, it was usually just ENSO and whether the NAO would be positive or negative. Now, a new layer of record SST warmth has added to the complexity with record SSTs in both the tropics and subtropics. So this is why seasonal model forecasts can be low skill when models don’t know which warm pool or pools will dominate. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The best we can do is identify which competing warm pools may pushback against the canonical ENSO expectations in the new era of ongoing marine heatwaves. In the old days, it was usually just ENSO and whether the NAO would be positive or negative. Now, a new layer of record SST warmth has added to the complexity with record SSTs in both the tropics and subtropics. So this is why seasonal model forecasts can be low skill when models don’t know which warm pool or pools will dominate. Do you think that the LR weather modeling will be able to add this new layer of complexity programmed into it so that we can improve these forecasts, Chris? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 45 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: my gf woke up from the thunder and lightning, i was sound asleep. Got rocked here with 2 or 3 storms overnight and heavy rain this morning. Finally made it in here after a few days of drizzle or nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 4.41" total so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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