the_other_guy Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 11:44 AM, LibertyBell said: I'd rather that wait until December, a mild November followed by a cold December is a really good sign for winter isn't it? I wonder if October will finish right near normal? Expand NOAA doesnt like this winter at all Not that that means much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Up to .85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 More Rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 11:51 AM, the_other_guy said: NOAA doesnt like this winter at all Not that that means much Expand Our locals like Lee Goldberg explained that enso only has a 15-20 percent influence on our weather. He compared how different the 20-21 and 21-22 la ninas were from each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 12:12 PM, LibertyBell said: Our locals like Lee Goldberg explained that enso only has a 15-20 percent influence on our weather. He compared how different the 20-21 and 21-22 la ninas were from each other. Expand Right. La Nina comes in different forms. In our area I’ll take it over an El Nino anyday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 12:15 PM, the_other_guy said: Right. La Nina comes in different forms. In our area I’ll take it over an El Nino anyday Expand Yup, there's a list of el ninos that were among our worst snowfall winters of all time, 72-73 and 97-98 being among them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Up to .95" total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 The last 7 days of October are averaging 58degs.(53/63) or +4. Month to date is 56.7[-2.5]. October should end at 57.0[-0.9]. Reached 61 yesterday. Today: 66-70, wind e. to ne., fog till 10am, cloudy, drizzle, 64 tomorrow AM. GFS is AN all the way: Shades of Nov. 2020? 8 straight days with highs of 67 to 75 early in the month. First 10 days of November are weighing in at 61{57/65} or +10! 63*(99%RH) here at 7am-FOG <0.2mi. 64* at 8am. 65* at 9pm. 68* at 11pm-FOG still here. 70* at 3pm-fog lifted by 2pm. Reached 71* at 3:15am. 70* at 5pm and Fog back in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 10:18 AM, donsutherland1 said: That’s the way it currently looks. Whether it turns colder late in the month remains to be seen. Expand Might get help to flip to cold with this recurving typhoon in a few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 The cooler October transitioning to a warmer November is more of a feature that we see with El Niños. So the record warmth in the North Pacific is creating more of an El Niño type influence. Probably another winter with competing influences rather than a strict ENSO interpretation. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 1.01" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 12:45 PM, bluewave said: The cooler October transitioning to a warmer November is more of a feature that we see with El Niños. So the record warmth in the North Pacific is creating more of an El Niño type influence. Probably another winter with competing influences rather than a strict ENSO interpretation. Expand Might be more like a 2020-21 kind of winter. ENSO only has a 15-20 percent influence on our weather after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 With the price of heating oil I'd really rather see a warm winter this time around. Sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 some drier air punching NW-looks like parts of LI have breaks of sun? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Back to now: CoCoRaHs 24 hours rainfall through 9A this morning, and the last image is the two day. Please click for clarity if interested. Noting several near 1.8" in our area, with near the CT RRV 2-2.6", so far. Periods of low top dribble today, looking like a T-0.1" today (9A-9P). the PW increases above 1.5" for much of LI/CT tonight as unstable PWAT arrives from the southeast and TT grows to near 50 (EC). Thinking we will see corridors of mdt-possible heavy showers invade from the south tonight with most areas T-0.1, but LI/CT could see a narrow band of near 1" between 9P tonight and 9A Wednesday (Isolated embedded thunder?). More dribble Wed afternoon-evening DRY Thursday-most of Sunday, then we'll see how it evolves for next Mon[Halloween]-Sat Nov 5 when EPS-GEPS continue above normal qpf (not as bold as earlier days but still decidedly favoring 1 or 2 good sized wet events next week) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 1:29 PM, wdrag said: Back to now: CoCoRaHs 24 hours rainfall through 9A this morning, and the last image is the two day. Please click for clarity if interested. Noting several near 1.8" in our area, with near the CT RRV 2-2.6", so far. Periods of low top dribble today, looking like a T-0.1" today (9A-9P). the PW increases above 1.5" for much of LI/CT tonight as unstable PWAT arrives from the southeast and TT grows to near 50 (EC). Thinking we will see corridors of mdt-possible heavy showers invade from the south tonight with most areas T-0.1, but LI/CT could see a narrow band of near 1" between 9P tonight and 9A Wednesday (Isolated embedded thunder?). More dribble Wed afternoon-evening DRY Thursday-most of Sunday, then we'll see how it evolves for next Mon[Halloween]-Sat Nov 5 when EPS-GEPS continue above normal qpf (not as bold as earlier days but still decidedly favoring 1 or 2 good sized wet events next week) Expand Walt, I was hoping you'd have more sunshine in the forecast lol. I hate these inconsequential tropical lows that gum up the works and slow everything down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 70 and Sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 11:44 AM, LibertyBell said: I'd rather that wait until December, a mild November followed by a cold December is a really good sign for winter isn't it? I wonder if October will finish right near normal? Expand October will be 0.5-1.5 degrees below normal across the area. There’s a stronger correlation between December and seasonal snowfall than temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 12:37 PM, uofmiami said: Might get help to flip to cold with this recurving typhoon in a few weeks. Expand It could. Merbok likely altered the pattern leading to 3-4 weeks of generally below normal temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 2:14 PM, TWCCraig said: 70 and Sunny Expand I wish we'd get that here, still socked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 1:15 PM, LibertyBell said: Might be more like a 2020-21 kind of winter. ENSO only has a 15-20 percent influence on our weather after all. Expand Warmer winters have become the norm since the super El Niño in 15-16. Overall La Niña background state with a strong WAR and SE ridge. Intervals of Atlantic and Pacific blocking were more dominant in the snowier seasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 72 and sunny here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Trash drizzle the past 24 hours. At least it's warm to make it a bit more bearable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Turning out to be a warm day. Busted mostly cloudy forecast. I'm in Hauppauge. Sunny and 74 according to the closest WU PWS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 76 right now, maxed at 77 FRG hit 78, 79 on Mesowest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Sun's out. Getting absolutely beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 6:15 PM, TWCCraig said: 76 right now, maxed at 77 FRG hit 78, 79 on Mesowest Expand I got my wish-- it's been sunny for hours here. But the humidity is high so it feels like a sauna lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 6:15 PM, TWCCraig said: 76 right now, maxed at 77 FRG hit 78, 79 on Mesowest Expand Wow I wonder if anyone around here hits 80. I see there are widespread 80s to our west, I was wondering if that would get here if the sun broke out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Topped out at 78, down to 74. Perfect day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 7:14 PM, LibertyBell said: Wow I wonder if anyone around here hits 80. I see there are widespread 80s to our west, I was wondering if that would get here if the sun broke out. Expand Hit 80 on Northern State Parkway in Westbury/Carle Place, Long Island area around 1:30 pm--at least according to my car. Feels like an August day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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