Cfa Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 All this talk of early changing foliage and we seem right on schedule for our usual early November peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 68 today. Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Under mostly sunny skies, the temperature soared into the middle 60s in New York City. The giant pumpkins, one of which weighed in at 2,554 pounds, had arrived to the New York Botanical Garden. Overall, it was a festive mid-autumn day. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 2500 pounds? Damn.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle and upper 60s across the region. Philadelphia saw the temperature peak at 70°. Out West, Lincoln, NE hit 82°. Three days earlier, Lincoln registered at low temperature of 16°. The 82° high is the highest October temperature 3 or fewer days after a 16° or colder low temperature. The prior mark was 67°, which occurred on October 28, 1887 following a 15° low temperature three days earlier. Tomorrow, the mercury could rise into the upper 80s and perhaps make a run at 90°. In the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, tomorrow will become mostly cloudy. Rain will arrive and continue into Monday. Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City will likely see 0.25"-0.75" of rain. There will likely be a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain east of New York City into southern New England, including Bridgeport, Islip, and Boston. Afterward, with the MJO currently in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +17.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.746 today. On October 20 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.220 (RMM). The October 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.132 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.3° (0.6° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Quite smoky in north central Suffolk tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 4 hours ago, gravitylover said: 2500 pounds? Damn.. A couple growers in England lost a 2907-pound pumpkin to a pinhole in late August. It would have easily crossed the 3000 lb threshold. http://www.bigpumpkins.com/Diary/DiaryViewOne.asp?eid=334890 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Just now, Juliancolton said: A couple growers in England lost a 2907-pound pumpkin to a pinhole in late August. It would have easily crossed the 3000 lb threshold. http://www.bigpumpkins.com/Diary/DiaryViewOne.asp?eid=334890 I expect the 3,000 pound threshold to be surpassed within the next few years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Anyway, looks to me like the EPS was well onto this and first to lead us to a potentially wet scenario, about a week ago. I know many think 10 day daily forecasts of temp and rain/no rain are helpful-reliable, but this is another case when beyond day 4 or 5, rain/no rain is not, in my opinion, wise to express in one image. We just can't reliably post a one image of weather beyond 4 or 5 days. Temp probably has a halfway decent idea within a range of 5F or so degrees... but weather = NOT. We continue to do this and when I see this, I start looking for downfall---what can wrong. That's what prompted me to look last weekend. So, I don't know how much rain in any location but by 15z Thursday, my guess is a likely 2-4" in a narrow N-S band or two. Primary suspect is somewhere LI/CT but also can't rule out something near the DE River in NJ/PA (NLCS impact this afternoon?) where the nwwd trend of PWAT sort of stalls, before,,, ???? Joslyn, yes Joslyn, it's leftover dissipating PWAT arrives sometime Wed/early Thu. Finally a period of dry weather should arrive by Fri. Otherwise, lots and lots of clouds today-Thu morning, and after the initial good pulse of rains later today-tonight, sporadic areas of a couple hours of drizzle or showers daily Mon-Thu morning. AND, unclear to me still, but several ensembles have above normal rainfall here the first few days of Nov...a persistent signal especially EPS/GEPS. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Looks like more rain for the area now then forecasted a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(56/67) or +6. Month to date is 56.6[-3.1]. Should be 57.8[-0.6] by the 31st. Reached 64 here yesterday. Today: 61-65, wind ne.-breezy, cloudy, rain possible from Noon today to Noon tomorrow-about 0.5", 52 tomorrow AM. An AN, cloudy, and sometimes rainy-breezy week is coming up. GFS looks overdone with the BN around Nov. 04-05. EURO is straight AN through Nov. 02.-not shown. W While neither the EURO or CMC go far enough in time, the GFS keeps showing another 'big blow' for P.R. This airport is in nw. P.R. and gets 120mph winds and 8".: 58*(85%RH) here at 7am. 60* at Noon. 61* at 1pm. 55* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Im gambling on a fart today and made a tee time for 1230. Probably will get wet but not a washout. Trying to sneak in rounds before winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 12 hours ago, Cfa said: Quite smoky in north central Suffolk tonight. Thought I saw "smoke" along the NJ GSP Ocean to Monmouth counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Still a tricky forecast for the next couple days. .5 to 2". Thankfully not winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 8 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looks like more rain for the area now then forecasted a few days ago. Bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Bust Tonight Periods of rain before 2am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Parts of the region experienced occasional showers and light rain during the afternoon into the evening. Periods of rain will continue into tomorrow. Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City will likely see 0.25"-0.75" of rain. There will likely be a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain east of New York City into southern New England, including Bridgeport, Islip, and Boston. Additional showers are possible on Tuesday. With the MJO having come out of Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures. November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +23.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.404 today. On October 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.380 (RMM). The October 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.222 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.3° (0.6° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 80% PoP? Maybe, but heavy rain? Looks like confined to MA and SNE despite Upton continued bullish disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 54 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: 80% PoP? Maybe, but heavy rain? Looks like confined to MA and SNE despite Upton continued bullish disco. The models did horribly again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 10 hours ago, Dark Star said: Thought I saw "smoke" along the NJ GSP Ocean to Monmouth counties... It was very visible here in certain areas, even at night. I smelled it for the entirety of my miles-long drive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 0.10” here today. High of 60, low of 50. Currently 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 50 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The models did horribly again I fear this going into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Everything heading to ELI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/22/2022 at 10:59 PM, Juliancolton said: A couple growers in England lost a 2907-pound pumpkin to a pinhole in late August. It would have easily crossed the 3000 lb threshold. http://www.bigpumpkins.com/Diary/DiaryViewOne.asp?eid=334890 a pinhole? how are they getting pumpkins to be this huge? I remember a few years ago we didn't even have a 1000 pound pumpkin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of rain. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 65° It will become noticeably warmer tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 61.6°; 15-Year: 62.0° Newark: 30-Year: 63.0°; 15-Year: 63.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.2°; 15-Year: 64.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 13 hours ago, qg_omega said: Bust 9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: The models did horribly again Up to .4 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/22/2022 at 3:52 PM, Cfa said: All this talk of early changing foliage and we seem right on schedule for our usual early November peak. For most of us, it started much earlier than last year. And much earlier than recent years. I did notice on my trip to Wading River how sparse color was out your way…and I chalked it up to extended drought conditions that didnt really effect rest of area as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 The warmest departures will go to our north this week and are set maintain the near record warmth up near Caribou, Maine. This was their 3rd warmest first 3 weeks of October for high temperatures. It’s really impressive since the average high there was only a little warmer than Newark. Goes to show how strong that record warm pool is east of New England. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 23 Missing Count 1 1947-10-23 62.4 0 2 2017-10-23 62.2 0 3 2022-10-23 61.7 0 4 2021-10-23 61.2 0 5 2016-10-23 61.1 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 The last 8 days of October are averaging 59degs.(54/64) or +5. Month to date is 56.7[-2.6]. October should end at 57.3[-0.6]. This means Oct. 6-31 would have been about +1---so basically an AN month. Reached 61 here yesterday. Today: 60-65, wind se.-breezy late, cloudy, rain. EURO is strictly AN into Nov. 03. GFS totally the opposite for late Oct. into Nov.: 55*(99%RH) here at 7am., rain. 59* at Noon. Reached 61* at 3pm. 60* at 6pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 .60" so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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