donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 The sun returned and today wound up becoming a mild autumn day. The mild weather will continue through the weekend. However, much cooler air will likely move into the region early next week. Out West, it was a tale of two seasons. At Portland, the temperature soared to 82°, which tied the daily mark set in 1991. It was also Portland's 10th 80° day this month, easily surpassing the old record of 6 days. At Minneapolis, a daily record 0.4" of snow fell. The last daily measurable snowfall prior to October 15th occurred on October 14, 2018 when 0.3" fell. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +23.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.533 today. On October 12 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.684 (RMM). The October 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.626 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.0° (1.9° below normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Weather should stay warm though. Looks pretty mild after a 3-4 day cool down next week. Mostly 60s and even a few 70s...indian summer galore. This weekend also looks fantastic Agree. Great golfing weather. Although I lost about 15 yards going from hot and humid to cooler and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 8 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said: Agree. Great golfing weather. Although I lost about 15 yards going from hot and humid to cooler and dry My problem is the leaves falling when your ball ends up in the woods it’s a lot harder to find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 This was the 9th coldest first 2 weeks of October at Newark with more cold to come this week. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 14 Missing Count 1 1935-10-14 52.4 0 2 1945-10-14 53.5 0 3 1987-10-14 53.7 0 4 1965-10-14 54.1 0 5 1988-10-14 54.4 0 - 1981-10-14 54.4 0 6 1996-10-14 54.6 0 7 1964-10-14 54.9 0 - 1934-10-14 54.9 0 8 1977-10-14 55.1 0 9 2022-10-14 55.2 0 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 2 hours ago, thunderbolt said: My problem is the leaves falling when your ball ends up in the woods it’s a lot harder to find Leaves are the worst. Hit a nice ball down the fairway, or even just off the fairway is very hard to find. But the woods are a magnet for the ball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(50/64) or Normal. The 8 days after this are averaging 62degs.(55/67) or +8. Month to date is 57.7[-3.3]. Should be 57.4[-2.1] by the 23rd. Maybe AN by the 30th.----after a head start of 45 negative degrees with those first 5 days. Reached 70 here yesterday. Today: 65-69, wind w. to s., m. sunny, 55 tomorrow AM. 54*(74%RH) here at 7am. 56* at 8am. 58* at 9am. 60* at 10am. 62* at Noon. 65* at 2pm. Reached 66* at 4pm. 63* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 21 hours ago, Rjay said: I had 0.65" 0.69” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 Foliage really popping now with the colder weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 74° Much cooler air will move into the region early next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 64.7°; 15-Year: 65.6° Newark: 30-Year: 66.3°; 15-Year: 67.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.5°; 15-Year: 68.3° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 Foliage really great this year and on time for a change. At least in my area. Color really vibrant. Maple trees at peak in full orange / red. Really nice. I'd say color is about a week from full peak here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 I am impressed with how much better the fall foliage is in Westchester than in eastern Suffolk on this beautiful October day. The drought really did a number on the trees out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 Beautiful day. 64 and blue bird skies. Top 10 weekend incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 An AN October isn't out of the question if some of the models are correct for last third Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 Minnesota saw snow yesterday Lucky 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 20 hours ago, MANDA said: Will be interesting to see what happens. Thanks for the info. they started hearings on this yesterday in the house so it looks like it is a done deal and will pass get use to going out in the dark in december 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: An AN October isn't out of the question if some of the models are correct for last third Looks like a quick cooldown and then it warms up again later in the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 8 hours ago, the_other_guy said: I am impressed with how much better the fall foliage is in Westchester than in eastern Suffolk on this beautiful October day. The drought really did a number on the trees out there And the color here sux compared to west and north where they got rain this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 Under brilliant sunshine and temperatures in the upper 60s, the New York Botanical Garden held a pumpkin-carving contest between three internationally-recognized artists. Alan Silva Lincoln Bias Lenny Calvin The winner is announced The winning carving 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 Topped out at 67 here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 Temperatures soared into the upper 60s and lower 70s today. The mild weather will continue through the weekend. However, much cooler air will likely move into the region early next week. Out West, the temperature smashed record highs in the Pacific Northwest. Records included: Astoria, OR: 83° (old record: 78°, 1954) *** latest 80° high on record*** Portland: 87° (old record: 80°, 1991 and 2015) Salem, OR: 92° (old record: 89°, 1901) ***latest 90° high on record*** Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +24.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.086 today. On October 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.845 (RMM). The October 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.689 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (1.8° below normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 21 hours ago, bluewave said: This was the 9th coldest first 2 weeks of October at Newark with more cold to come this week. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 14 Missing Count 1 1935-10-14 52.4 0 2 1945-10-14 53.5 0 3 1987-10-14 53.7 0 4 1965-10-14 54.1 0 5 1988-10-14 54.4 0 - 1981-10-14 54.4 0 6 1996-10-14 54.6 0 7 1964-10-14 54.9 0 - 1934-10-14 54.9 0 8 1977-10-14 55.1 0 9 2022-10-14 55.2 0 1977-78 was the only snowy winter in that list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 On 10/14/2022 at 5:46 PM, MANDA said: Why is that? Did they pass the bill to keep DST all year round? Have not heard much about it since it was proposed. That 8:17 sunrise does not sound appealing. There is a huge positive to this which most are ignoring. The time change has been blamed on a rise in car accidents, heart attacks and other issues so having one set time is the right way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 On 10/14/2022 at 5:22 PM, nycwinter said: next year we will have 8:17 sunrise in late december awful.. it's actually going to be closer to 8:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 Year round DST was bound to happen, over the past few decades the amount of time we had Standard Time has been getting shorter and shorter. The writing was on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: 1977-78 was the only snowy winter in that list Big pattern change coming up to warmer after this week as the PNA reverses and we get back to more of a La Niña SE Ridge. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 70° Much cooler air will move into the region by Tuesday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 64.4°; 15-Year: 65.2° Newark: 30-Year: 65.9°; 15-Year: 67.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.1°; 15-Year: 67.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(50/64) or Normal. Month to date is 57.0[-3.0]. Should be 57.7[-2.0] by the 24th. The last 8 days of the month are averaging 59degs.(52/66) or +5. Could get us close to Normal for the month as a whole. Reached 66 here yesterday. Today: 66-70, wind w., variable clouds, 58 tomorrow AM. 55*(90%RH) here at 7am. 58* at 9am. 61* at 10am. 62* at Noon. 63* at 1pm. 65* at 3pm. Reached 70* at 5pm. 65* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Year round DST was bound to happen, over the past few decades the amount of time we had Standard Time has been getting shorter and shorter. The writing was on the wall. The areas which will hate this the most are the western edges of the timezones. Columbus, Ohio, for example, will have roughly an *8:50AM* sunrise for most of December/January. Are there studies which really show that pretending it is later than it is all year will have a statistically significant effect on energy usage? Does that outweigh the side effects, such as the legitimate concern that all the kids will be going to school in the dark - the concern that largely squashed this years ago? On a non-scientific note, if this happens, I'll miss the early sunsets in the fall/winter. It was always a sign that snow/holidays/family season was upon us. Plus the Christmas lights can be on as early as 4PM and be noticeable. Ramble over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: The areas which will hate this the most are the western edges of the timezones. Columbus, Ohio, for example, will have roughly an *8:50AM* sunrise for most of December/January. Are there studies which really show that pretending it is later than it is all year will have a statistically significant effect on energy usage? Does that outweigh the side effects, such as the legitimate concern that all the kids will be going to school in the dark - the concern that largely squashed this years ago? On a non-scientific note, if this happens, I'll miss the early sunsets in the fall/winter. It was always a sign that snow/holidays/family season was upon us. Plus the Christmas lights can be on as early as 4PM and be noticeable. Ramble over. It would have been better if we were on Standard time all year. In our 24 hr society, I don't believe those old studies about energy usage apply anymore. On top of that besides what you cited about children going to school in the dark, the other problem that goes away by keeping Standard time all year long is the health impact of switching back and forth between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Year round DST was bound to happen, over the past few decades the amount of time we had Standard Time has been getting shorter and shorter. The writing was on the wall. As far as I know there are no prospects to push this bill forward. And if anything were to happen it wouldn't go into effect until 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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