donsutherland1 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Despite abundant sunshine, the temperature peaked at 58° at New York City and Newark. The thermometer topped out at 62° in Philadelphia. Parts of the region have concluded their coolest first week of October in at least 6 years. October 1-7 mean temperatures included: Allentown: 54.6° (coolest since 2011) Atlantic City: 58.5° (coolest since 2011) Boston: 58.2° (coolest since 2016) Bridgeport: 56.9° (coolest since 2008) Islip: 58.5° (coolest since 2015) New York City-JFK: 57.3° (coolest since 2003) New York City-LGA: 58.8° (coolest since 2015) New York City-NYC: 56.9° (coolest since 2008) Newark: 55.0° (coolest since 2003) Philadelphia: 58.1° (coolest since 2011) Providence: 57.5° (coolest since 2015) Scranton: 54.6° (coolest since 2011) White Plains: 53.3° (coolest since 2003) Both New York City and Philadelphia had a lower mean temperature than Boston. Since 1874, there were only 6 such prior cases: 1920, 1939, 1963, 1977, 1987, and 2011. In 1987, Portland and Seattle had their previous warmest first week on record in October. Those records were surpassed this year. Portland saw the temperature soar to 87° today. That smashed the daily record of 82° from 1971. It is also the latest 87° temperature on record. All said, the first 10 days of October remain on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +18.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.132 today. That broke the daily record high figure of +2.602 from 1988. On October 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.716 (RMM). The October 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.685 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.0° below normal). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Predicted low for my area tonight is 45, I am already below that. Looks like first 30s of the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 39 here, first 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 37. Chilly night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 30 here in the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 17 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Nothing on the horizon but we can get a sneaky warm day like yesterday. 70 is never off the table even in December and January There never really is a last 70, it can happen at any time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 5 hours ago, lee59 said: Predicted low for my area tonight is 45, I am already below that. Looks like first 30s of the season. Might be the first frost out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 37 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Earliest first 30s of the season at Newark since 2003. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 04-01 (2017) 10-03 (2003) 160 Mean 04-21 10-21 182 2022 04-18 (2022) 36 10-09 (2022) - - 2021 04-22 (2021) 37 11-03 (2021) 39 194 2020 05-10 (2020) 35 10-18 (2020) 39 160 2019 04-29 (2019) 37 11-02 (2019) 36 186 2018 04-21 (2018) 37 10-19 (2018) 35 180 2017 04-01 (2017) 36 11-01 (2017) 39 213 2016 04-15 (2016) 39 10-26 (2016) 37 193 2015 04-25 (2015) 36 10-17 (2015) 39 174 2014 04-21 (2014) 37 10-20 (2014) 39 181 2013 04-21 (2013) 37 10-24 (2013) 39 185 2012 04-28 (2012) 38 10-13 (2012) 34 167 2011 04-22 (2011) 37 10-28 (2011) 36 188 2010 04-28 (2010) 38 10-30 (2010) 38 184 2009 04-17 (2009) 37 10-14 (2009) 38 179 2008 05-01 (2008) 37 10-19 (2008) 39 170 2007 04-21 (2007) 39 10-29 (2007) 39 190 2006 04-10 (2006) 39 10-13 (2006) 39 185 2005 05-03 (2005) 39 10-27 (2005) 38 176 2004 04-06 (2004) 31 10-18 (2004) 39 194 2003 04-18 (2003) 36 10-03 (2003) 39 167 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 35 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 39F ! in Hastings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 35 in Muttontown & 36 in Syosset this morning. Frosted roofs, car tops & some patchy frost on the lawns in Syosset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 62degs.(55/69) or +2. Reached 62 here yesterday. Today: 60-64, wind w-breezy, m. sunny. 1"-2" Rain on Thurs/Fri, then BN T's for a week? GFS Too Warm as usual? A whole week near 70! That is a +4 46*(72%RH) here at 7am. 48* at 8am. 50* at 9am. 55* at Noon. 57* at 2pm. Reached 65* at 5pm. 59* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 The low of 37° at Newark is just 2° from the record low of 35°. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-08DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/9 35 in 1988 36 in 2001 37 in 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 34 with widespread frost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 42 for the low here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: The low of 37° at Newark is just 2° from the record low of 35°. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-08DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/9 35 in 1988 36 in 2001 37 in 2022 Chris, do you have a list for the earliest 30s for the NYC airports and the park itself? Going back to the 70s and overall site records? I'm thinking it was back in 1976 and in late September? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 62° Philadelphia: 63° Tomorrow will turn milder. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 67.0°; 15-Year: 68.1° Newark: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 70.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 70.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Chris, do you have a list for the earliest 30s for the NYC airports and the park itself? Going back to the 70s and overall site records? I'm thinking it was back in 1976 and in late September? Bridgeport: September 21, 1956 Islip: September 10, 1975 New Haven: September 17, 1950 New York City-JFK: October 4, 1996 New York City-LGA: October 1, 1947 New York City-NYC: September 30, 1912 Newark: September 21, 1956 White Plains: September 20, 1979, 1993, and 2004 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Worthy of monitoring 10/13-19 for one or two large qpf events (1+). All ensemble systems above normal that time frame. GFS op may be leading the pack on potential for a narrow stripe of excessive (5+) in the northeast USA. I see this as some (minor) GMEX-Trop contribution for the first event this Thu-Fri. WPC experimental excessive as posted overnight has the excessive north of our area. I could see this down here in somewhere in our subforum. Frosty this morning in Wantage. low 31.5 on the 10' mast. (colder near grass level for sure). Colors out here beautiful reds on the maples...much brighter than recent years. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Bridgeport: September 21, 1956 Islip: September 10, 1975 New Haven: September 17, 1950 New York City-JFK: October 4, 1996 New York City-LGA: October 1, 1947 New York City-NYC: September 30, 1912 Newark: September 21, 1956 White Plains: September 20, 1979, 1993, and 2004 Thanks, Don. So it's really early October for our area....NYC on the last day of September 110 years ago also has to be the monthly low record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 33 for a low here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 34° Frozen Dew on Tops of Vehicles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Overnight low here an even 35. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Chris, do you have a list for the earliest 30s for the NYC airports and the park itself? Going back to the 70s and overall site records? I'm thinking it was back in 1976 and in late September? Our most impressive fall cold temperature records in recent years were the 3rd and 4th earliest 25° readings in 2019 and 2017. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212 1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2019 03-08 (2019) 24 11-12 (2019) 25 248 1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242 1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 34F this morning it looks like. Colors really popping, could turn out to be a stellar foliage season at this rate though it remains to be seen what happens next week. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 34F this morning it looks like. Colors really popping, could turn out to be a stellar foliage season at this rate though it remains to be seen what happens next week. It already pretty much is. I've never seen colors so early from morris up through rockland yesterday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 37 my low, nice recovery up to 54. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our most impressive fall cold temperature records in recent years were the 3rd and 4th earliest 25° readings in 2019 and 2017. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212 1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2019 03-08 (2019) 24 11-12 (2019) 25 248 1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242 1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235 Wow I think one of those was also accompanied by NYC's earliest 6" snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our most impressive fall cold temperature records in recent years were the 3rd and 4th earliest 25° readings in 2019 and 2017. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212 1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2019 03-08 (2019) 24 11-12 (2019) 25 248 1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242 1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235 Amazing how short the growing season was in 1976 (although we did go from 25 on 4/12 to a 90+ true heatwave a week later lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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