LibertyBell Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 10 hours ago, Allsnow said: Almost a inch of rain at JFK, reading some of these posts from that area you would think it was sunny all day That came really early in the morning. The sun was out during the late morning to mid day hours. When was the last time JFK had an inch or more of rainfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Through 6 pm EDT, rainfall amounts are: Bridgeport: 0.36" Islip: 0.51" New York City-JFK: 0.87" New York City-LGA: 0.63" New York City-NYC: 0.58" Newark: 0.61" Philadelphia: 0.88" Westhampton: 1.38" (old record: 1.23", 1958) Additional light rain is possible tonight and tomorrow. From New York City and its nearby suburbs southward, a general 0.50"-1.50" storm total rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely tomorrow through Sunday. Most locations in that area will see the lower part of that range. The first 10 days of October will be much cooler than normal despite a brief warmup at the middle of next week. The overall temperature could average 3°-5° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. October 1988 was the coldest exception. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +17.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.646 today. On September 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.608 (RMM). The September 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.367 (RMM). What's causing all this early season cold weather Don and what are its implications on the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 17 hours ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully but as today proves, don’t count any rain this year until it’s in the bucket. Sun is out here in Long Beach. I loved how the sun came out in the middle of the day lol. Was that the "eye" of the storm haha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: June 1. Damn almost made it through all of met summer without significant rainfall. Well at least we did it through all of astro summer. The weird thing is even with all this dryness and heat we still didn't hit 100 anywhere this summer except for EWR. I wonder why that is-- it's said that you need a dry summer to get to 100. You can even get there if the sea breeze comes in later in the day because the dry weather causes the temps to rise much faster in the morning-- I've seen it hit 100 here as early as 11 AM in such scenarios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Damn almost made it through all of met summer without significant rainfall. Well at least we did it through all of astro summer. The weird thing is even with all this dryness and heat we still didn't hit 100 anywhere this summer except for EWR. I wonder why that is-- it's said that you need a dry summer to get to 100. You can even get there if the sea breeze comes in later in the day because the dry weather causes the temps to rise much faster in the morning-- I've seen it hit 100 here as early as 11 AM in such scenarios. That is not true at all. My area near New Brunswick hit 100 multiple days New Brunswick and Monmouth (BLM) both officially hit 100 at least once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Gusting in the 40s this morning along Ocean County barrier islands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: That is not true at all. My area near New Brunswick hit 100 multiple days New Brunswick and Monmouth (BLM) both officially hit 100 at least once Yeah I mean it happened in NJ but nowhere east of there. Someone said this summer was hotter than 1999 and drier-- no way the whole area was over 100 in 1999 and much drier-- we had a major drought until Floyd hit. 1999 had the hottest month on record in July 1999 until July 2010 came along and 20 90 degree days in that month alone! This was a moderately hot and dry summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Gusting in the 40s this morning along Ocean County barrier islands. where's this coming from? That thing isn't even a tropical storm anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Unusual look on radar this morning. Looks like rain developing in opposite directions to the east and west away from us. Not counterclockwise, but more like building and pulling away in opposite directions. Looks unusual to me anyway - first time I've seen it at least.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 And now moderate coastal flooding likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 46 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: And now moderate coastal flooding likely Just imagine if we weren't sitting with neap tides and a half moon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: where's this coming from? That thing isn't even a tropical storm anymore Pressure Gradient, very strong High to the north... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(50/65) or -4. Reinforcing BN Oct. 8,9,10. Reached 61 here yesterday. Today: 56-60, cloudy, wind ne.-breezy, Rain>Noon-6pm, 49 tomorrow AM. About 1" to 2" more rain here between now and Wed. AM. 60*(69%RH) here at 7am. 56* at Noon. 54* at 3pm. 52* at 4pm. 54* 6pm-8pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 56F/RH 66%/DP 47 as of 8:30AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will cloudy, breezy, and unseasonably cool. There will be periods of rain. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 59° The cool weather will persist until the middle of the week before a brief period of warmer readings arrives. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 69.8°; 15-Year: 71.1° Newark: 30-Year: 71.4°; 15-Year: 72.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 73.9° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: What's causing all this early season cold weather Don and what are its implications on the winter? The jet stream was altered from former Super typhoon Merbok's push into the Arctic region. It will take some time for that effect to fade--probably by mid-October. In response, some strong blocking had developed, which further amplified the changes that had occurred. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 I'm at my parents house just NW of Philly-torrential rains here-not moving much and models didn't have it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Probably 72 more hours before clearing out. Brief warmup Wed (10/5) - Fri (10/7) before trough comes through next weekend Sat (10/8) - Tue / Wed (10/11 - 12) before heading back towards normal. 1.21 in the bucket here rain going northeast , rain going southwest. Was at 60 Sat and about the same today. Monday and Tue dont look much different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Going to be raw and rainy the next few days euro has 1-3 inches more of rain for the metro area. Less north and west 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yeah I mean it happened in NJ but nowhere east of there. Someone said this summer was hotter than 1999 and drier-- no way the whole area was over 100 in 1999 and much drier-- we had a major drought until Floyd hit. 1999 had the hottest month on record in July 1999 until July 2010 came along and 20 90 degree days in that month alone! This was a moderately hot and dry summer. Pretty sure Boston hit 100. And you realize the bar for a “hot summer” is the average temp, not the hottest day or two right? This IS an actual science…your gut feelings or opinions mean nothing, the data speaks for itself. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Going to be raw and rainy the next few days euro has 1-3 inches more of rain for the metro area. Less north and west Most of it Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Looks and feels so depressing outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Most of it Tuesday night Raining here now. .26 so far today and I’m over a 1.00 combined with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That is not true at all. My area near New Brunswick hit 100 multiple days New Brunswick and Monmouth (BLM) both officially hit 100 at least once Hillsborough went 100+ on at least two occasions as did SMQ, IIRC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 A short video clip from this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Showers here in Brooklyn Looks like a dreary few days setting up with on and off rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 I'll take any rain we can get, we're still in a moderate drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Raining here now. .26 so far today and I’m over a 1.00 combined with more to come. A nice moderate rain here right now. We're fortunate that we're just getting into the rain today. It looks as if it's going to be NYC-south, with much of northern NJ staying dry today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: A nice moderate rain here right now. We're fortunate that we're just getting into the rain today. It looks as if it's going to be NYC-south, with much of northern NJ staying dry today. Like 4 miles to my north looks dry and I've had .25 in the past hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Like 4 miles to my north looks dry and I've had .25 in the past hour Yeah, we're fortunate that we're just getting into the northern edge of this rain band. Looking ahead to tuesday's potential, 12z NAM and RGEM keep most of the rain to our south. That's still a very close call ... we don't know yet if we're going to get significant rain or if it'll be just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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