October 2022 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the anomalies (relative to 1991-2020) in F deg for these nine locations:

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

deadline is 06z Saturday 1st of October. 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0       1.0         1.0       1.5     1.5       0.5     1.0       0.5

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 1.5       1.6       1.3        1.7      1.2     1.4        1.8       1.3      0.1

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+0.2   -0.5   -0.9      +1.0    +2.0   +2.2   +1.0      +1.5   +0.8

[Rjay]

DCA:  +1.5

NYC:  +1.5

BOS:  +1.5

ORD:  +1.0

ATL:  +1.0

IAH:  +1.0

DEN:  +2.0

PHX:  +2.0

SEA:  +1.5

[so_whats_happening]

DCA +.7

NYC +.4

BOS 0

ORD +1.4

ATL -.5

IAH +.4

DEN +1.5

PHX +1.7

SEA +2.5

[bkviking]

DCA:  +1.0

NYC:  +0.8

BOS:  +0.2 

ORD:  +1.0

ATL:  +0.6

IAH:  +1.4

DEN:  +2.5

PHX:  +2.3

SEA:  +1.9

[Tom]

DCA:  -0.2

NYC:  -0.3

BOS:  -0.3

ORD:  +0.3

ATL:  -0.6

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  +1.6

PHX:  +1.2

SEA:  +1.2

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.3      0.4      0.3       1.2      0.2     0.0        1.6     2.2       3.0

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +0.5

NYC:  +0.5

BOS:  +0.4

ORD:  +1.1

ATL:  +0.8

IAH:  +1.0

DEN:  +1.7

PHX:  +1.6

SEA:  +1.4

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.9     -1.2    -0.9       0.0      -1.5    1.4        1.2     -0.1      1.5

[Roger Smith]

-0.8 _ -1.0 _ -1.3 _ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ +0.2 _ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.8

[StormchaserChuck!]

DCA -2.0

NYC -2.5

BOS -3.0

ORD -3.0

ATL -1.0

IAH -0.5

DEN -0.5

PHX +2.5

SEA +0.5

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for October 2022

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 _______________+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 __ +1.7 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.8 _ +1.3 _ +0.1

RJay __________________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 

Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5

BKViking ______________________+1.0 _ +0.8 _ +0.2 __+1.0 _ +0.6 _ +1.4 __ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +1.9

so_whats_happening __________+0.7 _ +0.4 __0.0 __ +1.4 _-0.5 _ +0.4 __ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +2.5

wxdude64 ____________________ +0.5 _ +0.5 _+0.4 __ +1.1 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.4

___ Consensus ________________ +0.4 _ +0.4 _+0.1 __ +1.0 _ +0.4 _+0.8 __ +1.6 _ +1.7 _ +1.5

DonSutherland1 _______________+0.3 _ +0.4 _+0.3 __ +1.2 _+0.2 __ 0.0 __ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +3.0

wxallannj _____________________ +0.2 _ -0.5 _-0.9 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.8

___ Normal _____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Tom __________________________ -0.2 _ -0.3 _ -0.3 __ +0.3 _ -0.6 _ +0.6 __ +1.6 _ +1.2 _ +1.2

Roger Smith __________________ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -1.3 ___ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ +0.2 __ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.8

RodneyS ______________________ -1.9 _ -1.2 _ -0.9 ____ 0.0 _-1.5 _ +1.4 ___ +1.2 _ -0.1 __+1.5

Stormchaser Chuck! __ (-1%) __-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -3.0 ___-3.0 _ -1.0 _ -0.5 __ -0.5 _ +2.5 _ +0.5

________________________________________________

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal is coldest for SEA (+0.1 lowest among forecasters).

[Roger Smith]

Reports on anomalies and projections ...

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

11th __ (10 d anom)__ -6.9 _ -5.5 _ -1.3 ___ -1.1 __ -2.9 _ -2.1 ___ +1.5 _ +2.4 _ +6.4

21st __ (20 d anom)__-4.8 _-3.2 _ +0.9 __ -4.0 __ -3.5 _ -1.9 ___ +2.5 _ +1.9 _ +6.7

26th __ (25d anom) __-3.7 _-1.9 _ +1.5 __ -0.5 __ -3.0 _ -1.4 ___ +3.1 _ +1.0 _ +4.7 

29th __ (28d anom) __-3.0 _-1.2 _ +1.8 __ -0.6 __ -2.7 _ -1.8 ___ +2.6 _ +0.4 _ +4.2

 

11th __ (p20d anom)_ -3.5 _ -2.5 _ -1.0 ___ -5.0 __ -2.0 _ -1.3 ___ +2.0 _ +2.8 _ +4.0

21st __ (p31d anom) _ -2.0 _-1.5 _ +1.0 ___ -2.5 __ -2.0 _ -1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.0

26th __ (p31 anom) __ -2.5 _-0.7 _ +1.5 ___ 0.0 __ -2.0 _ -1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +4.0

29th __ (p31 anom) __ -2.5 _-0.7 _ +1.5 ___ 0.0 __ -2.0 _ -1.5 ___ +2.5 _ +0.5 _ +4.0

31st/1st (anom) ______ -2.6 _-1.0 _ +1.8  ___0.0 __ -2.3 _ -1.8 ___ +2.7 __ 0.0 _ +3.8

The above values are now confirmed ... Scoring has been updated).

11th _ A very cool start to the month in DCA, NYC and ATL, but the main track of further cold outbreaks seems to be more like ORD to eastern Canada. Due to the uncertainty I have not posted the 16-day averages, they would probably all move towards more average values.

21st _ Rest of month looks a bit warmer for east and central regions, will cut into negative anomalies, while west not as warm, SEA in particular likely to take a drop. 

26th _ Have adjusted some projections as cold anomalies have eroded very quickly for ORD and NYC while DEN did not turn particularly cold despite the passage of a weak low which will bring in the slightly colder air lurking to the north (where I am, it's 40F here with a trace of snow left over from 3" the other day) ... Scoring will soon be adjusted too. 

29th _ Further small changes made to projections and scoring.

31st, 1st Nov _ Final anomalies to be posted, scoring adjusted. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for October 2022

Scores are based on final anomalies listed in the previous post. 

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL

RodneyS ______________________ 86 _ 96 _ 46 __ 228 __100_ 84 _ 36 __ 220 _ 448 __ 70 _ 98 _ 54 __ 222 ___ 670

Roger Smith __________________  64 _100_ 38 __ 202 __ 74 _ 70 _ 60 __ 204 _ 406 __ 90 _ 52 _ 80 __ 222 ___ 628

Tom __________________________  52 _ 86 _ 58 __ 196 __ 94 _ 66 _ 52 ___ 212 _ 408 __ 78 _ 76 _ 48 __ 202 ___ 610

DonSutherland1 _______________ 42 _ 72 _ 70 __ 184 __ 76 _ 50 _ 64 __ 190 _ 374 __ 78 _ 56 _ 84 __218 ___ 592

___ Normal _____________________48 _ 80 _ 64 __ 192 __100_ 54 _ 64 ___ 218 _ 410 __ 46 _100_ 24 __ 170 ___ 580

so_whats_happening __________34 _ 72 _ 60 __ 166 __ 72 _ 64 _ 60 __ 196 _ 362 __ 76 _ 66 _ 74 __ 216 ___ 578

___ Consensus ________________ 40 _ 72 _ 66 __ 178 __ 80 _ 46 _ 48 __ 174 _ 352 __ 78 _ 66 _ 54 __ 198 ___ 550

wxdude64 ____________________ 38 _ 70 _ 72 __ 180 __ 78 _ 38 _ 44 __ 160 _ 340 __ 80 _ 68 _ 52 __ 200 ___ 540

BKViking ______________________ 28 _ 64 _ 68 __ 160 __ 80 _ 42 _ 36 __ 158 _ 318 __ 96 _ 54 _ 62 __ 212 ___ 530

RJay __________________________ 18 _ 50 _ 94 __ 162 __ 80 _ 34 _ 44 __ 158 _ 320 __ 86 _ 60 _ 54 __ 200 ___ 520 

Scotty Lightning ______________ 28 _ 60 _ 84 __ 172 __ 80 _ 24 _ 34 __ 138 _ 310 __ 56 _ 80 _ 34 __ 170 ___ 480

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 18 _ 48 _ 90 __ 156 __  66 _ 30 _ 36 __ 132 _ 288 __ 82 _ 74 _ 26 __ 182 ___ 470

wxallannj ______________________ 44 _ 90 _ 46 __ 180 __ 80 _ 14 _ 20 __ 114 _ 294 __ 66 _ 70 _ 40 __ 176 ___ 470

Stormchaser Chuck! __ (-1%) __87*_69*_ 04 __ 160 __ 40_ 73*_ 73*__ 186 _ 346 ___ 36 _ 49*_34 __ 119 ___ 465

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

StormchaserChuck wins with coldest forecasts DCA (-2.0 pr, -2.6 act) and IAH (-0.5 pr, -1.8 act).

BOS (+1.8) a win for RJay with warmest forecast (+1.5).

ATL (-2.3) a win for RodneyS  with coldest forecast (-1.5).

NYC, and ORD are close enough to consensus to not qualify (NYC highest score third coldest).

DEN (+2.7) is a win for BKViking (+2.5) with warmest forecast.

PHX (0.0) is a win for RodneyS (-0.1) and Normal with coldest forecasts.  

SEA (+3.8) is a win for DonSutherland1 with warmest forecast (+3.0). 

[Roger Smith]

 

===<<< __________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan - Oct 2022) _____________>>>===

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type.

The confirmed result is that RodneyS has moved into first with DonSutherland1 in second and wxdude64 in third, all fairly close and further ahead of Consensus than before. Also, so_whats_happening has passed Consensus and is not very far behind third now but still fourth.  Tom remains fifth just behind Consensus. BKViking (6th) has edged past Hudsonvalley21 (7th) with wxallannj now 8th. RJay and Scotty Lightning remain 9th and 10th, but are not all that far behind the 6th to 8th group. Normal remains between 10th and 11th despite my higher score in October, hoping to pass Normal soon, and Stormchaser Chuck's prorated score has declined slightly but is basically now tied with my 11th place total behind Normal. \

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ________________740 _688 _604__2032__634 _804 _602__2040 _4072 __760 _830 _676__2266____6338

DonSutherland1 ________ 760 _736 _694__2190__754 _660 _536__1950 _4140 __600 _802 _734 __2136 ____6276

wxdude64 ______________ 671 _727 _719 __2117 __727 _717_ 592__2036_4153 __686 _784 _629 __2099 ____6252

so_whats_happening ____644 _702 _698__2044__693 _718_ 560__1971 _4015 __ 664 _768 _744__2186 ____6201

___ Consensus ___________682 _718 _664 __2064__702 _698 _552__1952 _4016__710 _788 _681 __2179 ____6195

Tom _____________________ 687 _739 _631 __2057__716 _697 _667__2080 _4137 __721 _695 _578 __ 1994 ____6131

BKViking ________________ 660 _704 _646 __2010__634 _630 _494__1758 _3768 __746 _712 _660 __2118 ____5886

hudsonvalley21 __________624 _698 _702 __2024__660 _642 _530__1832 _3856__658 _782 _588__ 2028____5884

wxallannj ________________602 _668 _598 __1868 __656 _574 _526__1756 _3624 __752 _760 _702 __2214____5838

RJay _____________________606 _702 _730 __2038__649 _636 _504__1789 _3827 __706 _624 _619 __1949____5776

Scotty Lightning _________660 _680 _666 __2006 __648 _620 _558__1826 _3832 __604 _766 _518__1888____5720

_____ Normal _____________710 _676 _596 __1982 __662 _682 _580 __1924 _ 3906 __548 _710 _536__1794____5700

Roger Smith _____________ 604 _588 _404 __1596 __550 _570 _526 __1646 _3242 __758 _744 _737__2239____5481

Stormchaser Chuck (7/10)_447_469 _393 __1309 __390 _511 _355 _1256 _2565 __416 _510 _325 __ 1251____3816

__ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 5451 total points. 

=========================================

__ Best Forecasts __ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). 

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

RodneyS _______________ 2**__ 0 ___ 1*____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 5 ___ 2 ___4 ___ 3___ 2*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 __ Sep,Oct

DonSutherland1 ________4*^__ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____4 ____1 ____2 __ Feb,May

wxdude64 _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 __ Jan

so_whats_happening ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 __ Jul

___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 __ 0

Tom ____________________ 1^___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ Mar

hudsonvalley21 ________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*___ 0

BKViking _______________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0

wxallannj _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 2 ___0

RJay ____________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 3*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ Apr

Scotty Lightning ________ 2**__ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0

___ Normal ______________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0

Roger Smith ____________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1*____2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 5*___ 2 __Jun, Aug

Stormchaser Chuck ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred twelve times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug and Sep, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.) Normal could also be tied for extreme forecast wins but this is not tracked.

(in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total).

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN)

So far, 66 of 90 forecasts qualify, 28 warmest and 38 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5, Sep 1-3, Oct 3-4. 

 

FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug _ Sep _Oct __TOTAL (adj for ties)

 

Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _1-0 _ --- __ 16-5 (14-5)

RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 _1*0 _ 2-0 __12-2 (10.0-2)

____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 _ 3-0_ 2-0 __11-1

Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0 __ 10-1 (9.5- 1)

DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- __ 1-0 __10-0 (8.25 - 0)

RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1_ --- _ 1-0 __ 7-1 (6.25 - 1)

Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 6-0 (4.75 - 0)

wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- _ --- _ --- __ 5-0 (4.0 - 0)

Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0_ 3*0 _---_ 5-0 (3.5 - 0)

so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 _--- _ ---- _3-0 (2.5 - 0)

hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- __ 3-1 (2.0 - 1)

wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 _ --- _ --- __3-2 (2.0 -1)

BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- __ --- _ 1-0 __2-0 (1.25 - 0)

===============================

(Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)