WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya gotta wonder if the same psychology that drives weather enthusiasts and chasers and the like drives this kind of...not-so-smart risk-taking behavior. It almost certainly does to an extent, but this isn’t even a calculated risk lol Maybe I’m overthinking it and they’re just drunk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 00z ICON was lulz tonight Heavy rain Saturday morning into the afternoon... then a little bit of a lull Sunday morning... then a coastal SLP develops and bam, heavy rain returns late Sunday afternoon into Monday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z ICON was lulz tonight Heavy rain Saturday morning into the afternoon... then a little bit of a lull Sunday morning... then a coastal SLP develops and bam, heavy rain returns late Sunday afternoon into Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 00z CMC is a complete washout for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 00z EURO also coming in hot with a Saturday washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya gotta wonder if the same psychology that drives weather enthusiasts and chasers and the like drives this kind of...not-so-smart risk-taking behavior. This is NO time for a jebwalk. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 12 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: I never liked Prince William County anyway That's because they gonna get 5 inches of rain from Ian and you might eke out 2 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 13 hours ago, LeesburgWx said: We take where are we taking it? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Damn. This thing might get to Cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, H2O said: Damn. This thing might get to Cat 5 I would think so, its only 2mph from officially being one. it might as well be 155 vs 157 isn't that much of a noticeable difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 This is why blindly locking in tropical forecasts is complete folly. Sometimes you have to work the problem all the way through the end. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, mappy said: I would think so, its only 2mph from officially being one. it might as well be 155 vs 157 isn't that much of a noticeable difference Think I saw a tweet that said recon found a 160 gust. You know there are winds over 155 so some places will see cat 5 conditions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is why blindly locking in tropical forecasts is complete folly. Sometimes you have to work the problem all the way through the end. Each storm is it’s own creature. Just look at the current SE quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Hopefully he reached peak…either way, a scary situation for the FL coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6z GFS is certainly not impressive for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 What I want is for Ian to take an abrupt right turn, head out to sea and give us bupkis, and for October weather to be a Xerox copy of October 1963. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Seems GFS is 1 to 2 inches and Euro 1 to 3 inches. NWS is much more robust for the area with 2 to 5 inches in the area. I am pretty sure 1 to 3 inches with some higher, especially south, seems more likely to me. I see the ICON, but I do not trust that much! We shall see, but a southern push seems possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 46 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Seems GFS is 1 to 2 inches and Euro 1 to 3 inches. NWS is much more robust for the area with 2 to 5 inches in the area. I am pretty sure 1 to 3 inches with some higher, especially south, seems more likely to me. I see the ICON, but I do not trust that much! We shall see, but a southern push seems possible! The ICON is usually off. But I have to give it credit for Ian. It was the first to sniff out Ian making back into the Atlantic and up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 This is a crazy animation! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Main surge is in Naples area - buoy: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=npsf1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, WolfStock1 said: Main surge is in Naples area - buoy: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=npsf1 https://naplespanorama.org/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Having lived through Ike in Houston in 2008, Ian’s radar imagery gives me goosebumps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I put this in our main hurricane tracking thread, but I'll drop it here too. Naples pier taking a beating. https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/naples/?cam=naplespier edit: And just like that, the camera is offline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I put this in our main hurricane tracking thread, but I'll drop it here too. Naples pier taking a beating. https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/naples/?cam=naplespier I've been streaming it at work but it just went blank. Might've lost Naples.... Eta I see they're still posting up still shots, maybe just bandwidth issues with everybody streaming. Can't believe those two structures are still intact! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 God as my witness, and forgive my whining, but I don’t know how to describe the feeling of missing this one. I barely remember the wins, but I can never forget the missed opportunities. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Differences in rainfall totals between the GFS and other 12z globals so far are ludicrous. GFS is like 0.5-1” for most of the sub. Icon is like 3-6” and GGEM 2-4”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Differences in rainfall totals between the GFS and other 12z globals so far are ludicrous. GFS is like 0.5-1” for most of the sub. Icon is like 3-6” and GGEM 2-4”. GFS has this weird precip hole right over the metro. Wonder what 12z Euro will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Big wind gusts coming in now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Differences in rainfall totals between the GFS and other 12z globals so far are ludicrous. GFS is like 0.5-1” for most of the sub. Icon is like 3-6” and GGEM 2-4”. When the GFS is on its own, it usually winds up being correct. Said no one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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