yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 if you choose to accept the 00z ICON, that would be a rainy weekend with maybe a threat for a few isolated tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Starting to look like 2 landfalls. One would think more significant impacts for portions of our area. Seems like a non traditional track??? A landfall on the west coast of Florida and another on the southeast coast seems pretty unusual?? I guess we will see how things trend in the next 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 00z GFS says rainy Monday for all but some rain Sunday south of the i66 corridor... 00z CMC rainy late Sat into Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1-3" across the LWX CWA per the 00z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Short Pump sno- erm… rain hole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 WB 0Z GFS. Finally has caved to the direct hit on the west coast of Florida. Rain totals are insane. Over 44 inch bullseye!!!! EURO definitely did a better job with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Seems like more divergence on Ian rain arrival time overnight than was present yesterday. 6z GFS really slows it down and doesn’t bring it into the metro areas until early Sunday. Whereas the 0z euro moved a little earlier, starting mid-late morning Saturday. How much the high pressure pushes and where the northern edge sets up also are in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GFS. Finally has caved to the direct hit on the west coast of Florida. Rain totals are insane. Over 44 inch bullseye!!!! EURO definitely did a better job with this storm. I'm afraid to go check WB, JB must be basking in all his glory. To his credit he was very early to call a Tampa hit and didnt waiver even when the models were shifting westward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, IronTy said: I'm afraid to go check WB, JB must be basking in all his glory. To his credit he was very early to call a Tampa hit and didnt waiver even when the models were shifting westward. Even a clock is right twice a day lol. Just playing. He kills it sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The WPC nudged the rainfall North a bit versus previous forecasts. Still a killer cut-off. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 It still pushes good rains into the most northern areas. 1.5" to the PA line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Kind of crazy how well Ian has held together over Cuba. Some slight shrinking of the core. But overall it seems very little impact at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 7 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GFS. Finally has caved to the direct hit on the west coast of Florida. Rain totals are insane. Over 44 inch bullseye!!!! EURO definitely did a better job with this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 12z includes more tracks that take Ian into the ATL. 12z ICON appears to be heading that way as well....Ian's end game still up in the air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 12Z ICON is some kind of run. Tampa and Charleston both get smoked. We get some really heavy rain out here as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 My parents have a place a little NW of Tampa, which might well float away in a few days. They're on their way back up north right now, so they're relying on their neighbor for updates. ICON wants to smoke MBY overnight Sunday-Monday. Curious to see what the 12z varsity quite has to say. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 WB latest infrared…entering southern Gulf… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Waves and sea level really starting to pick up in Key West over the past hour. They might be in some trouble later on. https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 A pretty extended easterly fetch coming into the MA beaches on the GFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 hour ago, mattie g said: My parents have a place a little NW of Tampa, which might well float away in a few days. They're on their way back up north right now, so they're relying on their neighbor for updates. ICON wants to smoke MBY overnight Sunday-Monday. Curious to see what the 12z varsity quite has to say. GFS and GGEM both juiced up for the whole sub. Still timing differences though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Mumers in the main tropical thread about more models indicating Ian re emerging into the Atlantic with a 2nd Landfall in SC, possibly riding up the coast after that. Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS and GGEM both juiced up for the whole sub. Still timing differences though. Could be a soaker for the Ravens-Bills game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 38 minutes ago, poolz1 said: A pretty extended easterly fetch coming into the MA beaches on the GFS. Been a while since I’ve seen an easterly fetch like that. One could dream of this being in January and the high centered over Toronto… Ok, back to the present. Carry on, people. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Been a while since I’ve seen an easterly fetch like that. One could dream of this being in January and the high centered over Toronto… Ok, back to the present. Carry on, people. Surf zone forecasts starting to ramp up with significant beach erosion and wave action for this Sunday and Monday. As for the Easterly fetch, I recall back to the President Day Blizzard of 2003. part of that great 02-03 Winter. We had a 2,000 mile long Easterly fetch I believe, causing many areas to turn over to sleet. Here we measured 24 inches. Had it not been for the sleet we would have easily achieved 35 inches. > Here is the surf zone forecast for this Monday, October 3, 2022. Of note is the extended period of East and ENE Winds onto the beaches, beginning on Friday and going through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 13 hours ago, jewell2188 said: Starting to look like 2 landfalls. One would think more significant impacts for portions of our area. Seems like a non traditional track??? A landfall on the west coast of Florida and another on the southeast coast seems pretty unusual?? I guess we will see how things trend in the next 24 hrs. If it takes that path Bastardi is going to be living off his call for like the next 15yrs. Probably even put Ian's name on his tombstone alongside Sandy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 53 inches of rain into Sarasota might endanger O's training camp next February. That would be beyond catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 44 minutes ago, CAPE said: Could be a soaker for the Ravens-Bills game. Yeah that's gonna be a messy one!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just want to see DC pop up in the wind probabilities chart at the next update. At a 1 for 34k, but whatever. Kind of like getting a pity MD with a dying line of thundershowers to our west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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