clskinsfan Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 26 minutes ago, H2O said: Ian gaining more strength would not be surprising. More than expected that is They already upped it to 80 at second landfall. It wont really mean anything for most of us though. Just a breezy rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 ^was just about to post that. Amazing how Ian keeps going east / north east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Been doing a deep dive into the models this evening and I think it's pretty clear that Hurricane Ian has recognized the presence of DC @Ianand is steering clear so we don't get a Fujiwara effect of Ians. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 6 hours ago, mattie g said: You sure? I’m not looking for anything severe but I’d like more than a half inch of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 It’s sobering but so many saw the horror of this that they will always evacuate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 On top of all the winds doesn’t really fast pressure drops also do something to the waters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 8 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Looks like this is manifesting in our rain forecast with both an earlier start tonight and the secondary low hanging around in our area and bringing rain Sunday-Monday. That second part has been the tough forecast. Esrlier start and a break tomorrow afternoon is good news for my mother in laws birthday party. But bad news for me sitting out at the Nats-Phillies game tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looks like this is manifesting in our rain forecast with both an earlier start tonight and the secondary low hanging around in our area and bringing rain Sunday-Monday. That second part has been the tough forecast. Esrlier start and a break tomorrow afternoon is good news for my mother in laws birthday party. But bad news for me sitting out at the Nats-Phillies game tonight Hopefully the break in the rain tomorrow works out as forecasted for you during your Mother in laws 70th bday party. My son came down with Strep throat on Wednesday and with the ugly forecast over the weekend we decided to postpone my wife's 40th bday party. To many people crammed in the house with lots of cousins running around inside makes for an unpleasant experience lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyHolt Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Best storm surge timelapse I have ever seen & wanted to share. Focusing on the palms in the foreground I missed the house being washed away. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 People just don't realize that its NOT a tidal wave amount of water that comes and goes. It is a relentless, steady rise that lasts for hours. Just when you think its done it keeps coming. Wind can push a hell of a lot of water. Likely to have deaths in the 1000s if too many people didn't haul ass out of there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, H2O said: People just don't realize that its NOT a tidal wave amount of water that comes and goes. It is a relentless, steady rise that lasts for hours. Just when you think its done it keeps coming. Wind can push a hell of a lot of water. Likely to have deaths in the 1000s if too many people didn't haul ass out of there. A lot of these homes that looked fine are going to be gutted from the water damage. The recovery is going to take years, not weeks like people think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 26 minutes ago, H2O said: People just don't realize that its NOT a tidal wave amount of water that comes and goes. It is a relentless, steady rise that lasts for hours. Just when you think its done it keeps coming. Wind can push a hell of a lot of water. Likely to have deaths in the 1000s if too many people didn't haul ass out of there. Not only do people not understand what storm surge is, it is not emphasized enough. Far too much concentration on wind. Also, the majority of people misunderstand the forecast cone. Most think that black line in the middle is the path and that the expanding cone only means the storm is getting larger as it moves. This led to many being completely unprepared for what happened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 6z GFS seems to have decided to get wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Dews in the 40s in Carroll County this AM. Sky makes it feel like a winter storm is coming in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyHolt Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 26 minutes ago, anotherman said: Not only do people not understand what storm surge is, it is not emphasized enough. Far too much concentration on wind. Also, the majority of people misunderstand the forecast cone. Most think that black line in the middle is the path and that the expanding cone only means the storm is getting larger as it moves. This led to many being completely unprepared for what happened. It's troubling that I didn't see anyone boarding up like old school floridians knew to do. No traffic jams fleeing the area. No video of thousands packed into safe shelters. I am sure I missed some but saw none. Media is definitely laser focused on the peak wind and CAT # - and I will throw in there central pressure. For the layman that number means nothing to them as they likely don't know if higher or lower is worse for their safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Crazy looking storm. Noreaster/tropical storm mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Crazy how the surge swept all of these trailers into a heap. What a mess. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 HRRR has some gusts to near tropical storm force creeping up into southern Maryland and a good chunk of the eastern shore. Might see some wind advisories come out of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 So what are we looking at here? 1-2 inches of rain or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HRRR has some gusts to near tropical storm force creeping up into southern Maryland and a good chunk of the eastern shore. Might see some wind advisories come out of this. I told my mom early this week Ian wasn't going to be a big deal for the eastern shore. Now it will be to an extent. Winds and tides mostly. And western side of the bay will see some flooding now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: So what are we looking at here? 1-2 inches of rain or more? I'd say that's a comfortable number. 06z GFS was wetter, but we'll see what happens with the 12z suite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Nam is a solid 2 to 4 across the area by Monday Morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 VAZ025-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-302200- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0014.220930T2000Z-221001T1000Z/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Western Pendleton- Including the cities of Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Hightown, Monterey, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, and Riverton 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. Highest winds will be along the ridges. * WHERE...In Virginia, Augusta, Nelson, Albemarle, Greene, Western Highland and Eastern Highland Counties, and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. In West Virginia, Western Pendleton County. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result, particularly along the ridges. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 MDZ017-018-302200- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0014.220930T2200Z-221001T0800Z/ St. Marys-Calvert- Including the cities of Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, and Prince Frederick 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected along the shores of the Chesapeake. * WHERE...St. Marys and Calvert Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Took me longer than I'd like to admit to figure out that video higher up on this page was auto-playing. Somebody is going to have a shock when they load this page this AM at work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 hour ago, H2O said: I told my mom early this week Ian wasn't going to be a big deal for the eastern shore. Now it will be to an extent. Winds and tides mostly. And western side of the bay will see some flooding now Bethany had some erosion last week. I wonder how much more they will get from Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: HRRR has some gusts to near tropical storm force creeping up into southern Maryland and a good chunk of the eastern shore. Might see some wind advisories come out of this. Already wind advisories down here in Calvert. Gusts up to 50mph near the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Nam is a solid 2 to 4 across the area by Monday Morning. CMC pretty much agrees... GFS slightly less than both 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 5 hours ago, Chris78 said: Hopefully the break in the rain tomorrow works out as forecasted for you during your Mother in laws 70th bday party. My son came down with Strep throat on Wednesday and with the ugly forecast over the weekend we decided to postpone my wife's 40th bday party. To many people crammed in the house with lots of cousins running around inside makes for an unpleasant experience lol. Our grandson outdoor 6th birthday 10/1 is inside now. I contract to wedding venues with outdoor events and scrambling for this evening and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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