Maestrobjwa Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: GFS has this usual precip hole right over the metro. Wonder what 12z Euro will show. Fixed, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MDstorm said: When the GFS is on its own, it usually winds up being correct. Said no one. Truth. But tropical systems are notoriously hard to pin down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 28, 2022 Author Share Posted September 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Differences in rainfall totals between the GFS and other 12z globals so far are ludicrous. GFS is like 0.5-1” for most of the sub. Icon is like 3-6” and GGEM 2-4”. Icon is crazy thru 165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 31 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Icon is crazy thru 165 fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Euro seems to be showing a severe threat for Saturday. Maybe some more knowledgeable can comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Differences in rainfall totals between the GFS and other 12z globals so far are ludicrous. GFS is like 0.5-1” for most of the sub. Icon is like 3-6” and GGEM 2-4”. Euro definitely not on #TeamGFS. Gets rain started Friday evening, way earlier than other guidance. Actually a break for late Saturday and early Sunday, then more rain through Tuesday. VA is drowned…3-10”. Less for MD, but still a bunch. GFS a total outlier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro definitely not on #TeamGFS. Gets rain started Friday evening, way earlier than other guidance. Actually a break for late Saturday and early Sunday, then more rain through Tuesday. VA is drowned…3-10”. Less for MD, but still a bunch. GFS a total outlier. Are you able to post a map showing total precip through Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Are you able to post a map showing total precip through Tuesday? You can go to the below link and drag the run to whichever timeframe you want: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022092812&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=qpf_acc&m=ecmwf_full 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 12z vs 0z 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Any idea what is causing the large spin up cell in the upper left quadrant of the storm which is currently over the Atlantic? I know that is is probably just a larger cell spinning up off the main circulation, but I don't recall ever seeing one which is so well organized and lasting this long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: You can go to the below link and drag the run to whichever timeframe you want: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022092812&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=qpf_acc&m=ecmwf_full Bookmarked! Thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 36 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 12z vs 0z Like winter except the one on the right verifies for my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Reminds me of the claw. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: Euro seems to be showing a severe threat for Saturday. Maybe some more knowledgeable can comment. Possible isolated tornado threat I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, H2O said: Like winter except the one on the right verifies for my hood Winterwxluvr is seething right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 31 minutes ago, yoda said: Possible isolated tornado threat I think Ummm...yoda? He asked for someone knowledgeable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 54 minutes ago, KAOS said: Reminds me of the claw. "The claw. It moves!" (it didn't) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looks like The biggest difference between the Euro and Gfs is Ian's circulation hangs around us for days on the euro and we are kind of in the sweet spot so to speak. Gfs is further south and weaker with the circulation it seems. Euro would be an impactful rain event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 56 minutes ago, yoda said: Possible isolated tornado threat I think Agreed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Heavy rain threat per WPC 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 FWIW, which again, is next to zero lol, 18z NAM has heavy rain getting in here late Friday afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 (1/2) The Maryland Department of Emergency Management continues to monitor Hurricane Ian closely. The situation is fast-moving and continues to develop so please remain vigilant. Ian will bring periods of light to moderate rain Friday night through Sunday as well as the risk of inland flooding and flash flooding. Periods of gale-force winds are possible at times through Monday, mainly for ocean beaches and south of Drum Point/Cobb Point MD on the Chesapeake/Potomac. (2/2) Flash flooding can be quick and dangerous. If you receive a flood watch, warning, or suspect flooding is happening, immediately head to higher ground.Create or update your family's emergency kit with non-perishable food, water, flashlights, batteries, and medical supplies. Learn more about kits here: bit.ly/-kits. Keep tuned to your local news and weather and continue to monitor Hurricane Ian. #MdReady. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldasice Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, which again, is next to zero lol, 18z NAM has heavy rain getting in here late Friday afternoon Based off of what the Nam just showed, a couple more adjustments like that and the hurricane will make its turn west when it gets up to the Chesapeake. That was a pretty significant change from what all the models have showed. I know, it's the NAM so should just ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 82.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of South Santee River South Carolina to Little River Inlet. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Surf City to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 That’s the 2nd NAM run to show this. The other hurricane models at 18z are also shifting tracks more east into central/southern SC. Could be a trend…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I’d pop a tent for an inch at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 GFS still 1 to 3 inches.. I personally think that would be right.. if it was a snow forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS still 1 to 3 inches.. I personally think that would be right.. if it was a snow forecast. It’s not even that. Way less than other guidance. It pushes the remnant low well south with that high pressing in more and suppressing it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 As fun as it would be, I'm over mowing. Hoping for dry. 5 - 8 out here would be some very bad flooding. .... and mowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Let's go out with a bang this summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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