yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 LWX AFD from this afternoon .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry and cooler than average once again on Friday as strong high pressure remains entrenched over the northeastern CONUS. Highs for most will remain in the 60s. Rain chances start to encroach on our region as early as Friday evening as the remnants of what is now Hurricane Ian approach from the south. For the weekend and even into Monday, a great deal of uncertainty remain regarding the track of Hurricane Ian. What does seem certain at this point is that our region should at least see some rainfall from Ian Saturday into Sunday. Whether that is a beneficial or hazardous amount has yet to be seen. We will continue to monitor the forecast for Ian and adjust the forecast as needed. For updates on Hurricane Ian, visit the National Hurricane Center website at hurricanes.gov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Another bit of sad news. We lost our live feed from Southernmost live cam. Was cool watching the water surge up all day and the wave heights increase dramatically. I think they are gusting like 50-60 MPH down in Key West right now. So kind of makes sense we lost the cam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18z ICON is interesting lol... Saturday is pretty much a washout until evening... then a 2nd SLP develops (i think its a seperate SLP from Ian?) and brings more heavy rainfall back Sunday afternoon as the run ends 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z ICON is interesting lol... Saturday is pretty much a washout until evening... then a 2nd SLP develops (i think its a seperate SLP from Ian?) and brings more heavy rainfall back Sunday afternoon as the run ends Ugh. Was hoping rain would hold off till later Saturday evening. Having a 40th bday party for my wife on Saturday afternoon. Too many people to have inside lol. Hope the models that were showing a later start time is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18z GFS gets rain from Ian into most of the region before sunrise on Saturday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Soundings would also suggest an isolated tornado threat as well in Saturday per 18z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Showers hang around through at least Tuesday per 18z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 All the models are showing double low. Almost like the Ian leftovers are the upper energy that pops a coastal near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2O said: All the models are showing double low. Almost like the Ian leftovers are the upper energy that pops a coastal near the benchmark. Pre gaming for an epic winter. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, H2O said: All the models are showing double low. Almost like the Ian leftovers are the upper energy that pops a coastal near the benchmark. Those always work out as modeled 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, H2O said: All the models are showing double low. Almost like the Ian leftovers are the upper energy that pops a coastal near the benchmark. Damn...Miller B screw zone! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Well, I will say we probably all could use a good rain about now. Not that I care for a washout weekend, but hey, we've had some nice days of late. So no complaints from me (as long as it's not some outrageous flooding rain or the like!). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, H2O said: All the models are showing double low. Almost like the Ian leftovers are the upper energy that pops a coastal near the benchmark. That sort of has a Nov 85 vibe...different setup but a long duration rain event -First part tropical remnants of Juan passing by to our west followed by a 2nd low that popped over Carolina which became the main event.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said: That sort of has a Nov 85 vibe...different setup but a long duration rain event -First part tropical remnants of Juan passing by to our west followed by a 2nd low that popped over Carolina which became the main event.. That is a hell of a recall 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Ugh. Was hoping rain would hold off till later Saturday evening. Having a 40th bday party for my wife on Saturday afternoon. Too many people to have inside lol. Hope the models that were showing a later start time is correct. We have my mother in laws 70th birthday party at a brewery Saturday. Was also really hoping for an after-sunset start, but that seems to be a losing bet right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 We were planning on hitting Rennfest on Sunday. That's not looking likely but if it can hold out to just light rain/drizzle until mid afternoon on Saturday we will go Sat (assuming all sports canceled). Despite the mud, Rennfest can be fun in the rain with fewer crowds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Driving up next week to central NY to do a little hiking and then pick our daughter up from Toothpaste U. Would be nice to see some tropical-induced flurries. Remnant Ian circulation over the Lakes and boom, you've got a coverlet of snew. I may be counting on higher latitude too much here ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 @clskinsfan Your southern most web cam is raging right now! Pretty impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 hour ago, H2O said: That is a hell of a recall Remember that one too. Think it was Kate. Moved here in Aug 1985 from Ohio and had a couple that brought rain and some power outages to the DELMARVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, poolz1 said: @clskinsfan Your southern most web cam is raging right now! Pretty impressive. Wow. Crazy how far the water has come up compared to earlier today. Thanks for the headsup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 There is nothing like a tracking thread on AmWx when something big is coming 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 41 minutes ago, RDM said: Remember that one too. Think it was Kate. Moved here in Aug 1985 from Ohio and had a couple that brought rain and some power outages to the DELMARVA. I think Kate was later in the month maybe more toward the coast... Juan and a secondary low is what triggered the catastrophic western Va and West Virginia flood event.. around election day week.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Which model shows us getting nothing? That’s the one I want to hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Since it’s storm mode, is this the thread I can clutter with drivel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I think Kate was later in the month maybe more toward the coast... Juan and a secondary low is what triggered the catastrophic western Va and West Virginia flood event.. around election day week..Don't talk to me about Kate. I was in college in Florida, and my tickets to see REM turned to dust as the show got cancelled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 FWIW, which I know is basically nothing lol, but 00z NAM gets first bands of Ian up here Friday evening and really starts cranking early Saturday morning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 This is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is insane. Chain me down and I’m there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is insane. Ya gotta wonder if the same psychology that drives weather enthusiasts and chasers and the like drives this kind of...not-so-smart risk-taking behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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