Remnants of Ian: Threat for us?

[stormtracker]

Might as well start a thread for any potential. 6z GFS has 1 to 3" across the area.

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like there could be some nasty conditions along the shoreline on Sunday/Monday if the GFS is right. I'm interested in the post landfall motion and whether this turns more progressive if that trough is a little stronger. 

[stormy]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks like there could be some nasty conditions along the shoreline on Sunday/Monday if the GFS is right. I'm interested in the post landfall motion and whether this turns more progressive if that trough is a little stronger. 

The trough is too shallow and lifts out too quickly for Ian.  He is left wandering around the southeast states for two or 3 days as a cold core extra tropical system.  May have a tough time gaining enough latitude for D.C./ Winchester.

[clskinsfan]

I would think the southern Aps will wring Ian out pretty well before it makes it up here. But if it tracks the coastal plain we could get some decent uplift rains out this way. 

[yoda]

LWX AFD from this afternoon:

For next weekend, that is where forecast uncertainty greatly
increases over our area. Hurricane Ian is forecast to move into the
southeast this weekend after landfall somewhere along the eastern
Gulf Coast. What Ian does from there is still quite uncertain in
terms of the when and where. Some impacts from whatever is left of
Ian are possible this weekend though, so monitor the latest forecast
for Ian from the National Hurricane Center with more details at
hurricanes.gov.

[yoda]

CHO to EZF to S MD get dumped on... 3 to 7 inches of rain through 216 on 12z Euro 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

CHO to EZF to S MD get dumped on... 3 to 7 inches of rain through 216 on 12z Euro 

 

[Stormfly]

Short pump getting pumped!

[jewell2188]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

 

That’s a painful map. 

[nj2va]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

 

 

North trend in 3....2....1...

[Maestrobjwa]

43 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

That’s a painful map. 

Hurts your feelins' I'm tellin' ya, lol

[Eskimo Joe]

48 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

That’s a painful map. 

18z hurricane models are more favorable for us, but I agree this is a painful setup to watch. 

[Rvarookie]

Just checking in for something

[poolz1]

Should we be routing for a FL traverse and secondary landfall?  Seems those runs are the only ones that give us a widespread impactful event.  I guess the H to the north could trend weaker but that hasn't been the case over the past 48hr.

[WeatherShak]

I would think the southern Aps will wring Ian out pretty well before it makes it up here. But if it tracks the coastal plain we could get some decent uplift rains out this way. 

What’s your location? Elevation?

[MDstorm]

18z Euro/Icon/UKMET are now showing landfall SOUTH of Tampa.  Still twists and turns with Ian.  

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO devastation for West coast of FL.  Tampa area with nearly 2 feet of rain.

[Eskimo Joe]

^could you imagine that in this neck of the woods? Insane.

[jewell2188]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^could you imagine that in this neck of the woods? Insane.

Devastation would not be the right word. 

[yoda]

@Eskimo Joe would like

 

[yoda]

[clskinsfan]

Back over the Atlantic and up the coast is interesting. Much better chance for something significant in our area that way. 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Eskimo Joe would like

 

Looks like guidance is split in 2 schools of thought, one having Ian fizzle in the carolinas and the other driving it up the EC. Must depend on the interaction with the trough

[Eskimo Joe]

21 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Eskimo Joe would like

 

Just need the remnant into Quantico, then a right hook east. Pivot, baby.

[Kevin Reilly]

40 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like guidance is split in 2 schools of thought, one having Ian fizzle in the Carolinas and the other driving it up the EC. Must depend on the interaction with the trough

Totally the Key looks like the trough is pulling Ian north into the Gulf then as the trough lifts out Ian is only able to get so far north to say Venice Florida on the West Coast before Ian gets tugged NE or ENE through Florida and then leaving near Cape Canaveral to eventually turn north bound towards the Carolinas as the trough over us leaves Ian behind and able to come north bound up the Coast. Looks like the models are opening the door to this possibility and it will be very interesting to see if the 0z and 12z suites continue to advertise this situation. Hey, the NAO is going from Negative to positive moving upwards on October 1st which often does indicate a storm moving up the East Coast.  I suppose time will tell. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

57 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Back over the Atlantic and up the coast is interesting. Much better chance for something significant in our area that way. 

What’s the scenario where we get nothing. I want that option.

[biodhokie]

I want the option where we get finally get our cake, only to find out it's carrot cake.

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, biodhokie said:

I want the option where we get finally get our cake, only to find out it's carrot cake.

I like carrot cake. However I'm not sure what the Mid Atlantic weather definition of carrot cake is

[yoda]

day 5 NHC has Ian (as a TD) in S NC

[WeatherShak]

day 5 NHC has Ian (as a TD) in S NC