Hoosier Posted October 17, 2022 Author Share Posted October 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Still a good amount of uncertainty, but I actually am warming up to this type of scenario happening somewhere. It may be farther east in the IWX cwa though. I would even say that I don't know why there won't be snow accumulation well inland from the lake. This setup has a lot going for it and is favorable for heavy precip extending well inland, some of which will intersect with the colder bl temps. Gino brought up what happened in Buffalo in 2006, but an example closer to home is October 7-8, 2000. This airmass seems a little warmer aloft than that one, but that may be countered by it being a week and a half later in the month with somewhat cooler water temps now... in other words, perhaps the airmass doesn't have to be as cold. That one produced a localized 6" in Peotone, IL with amounts trending down as you got closer to the lake. Could this be like an eastward displaced version of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Hoping for heavy snow tonight followed by 70 this weekend. Autumn rollercoaster is at full power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: I would even say that I don't know why there won't be snow accumulation well inland from the lake. This setup has a lot going for it and is favorable for heavy precip extending well inland, some of which will intersect with the colder bl temps. Gino brought up what happened in Buffalo in 2006, but an example closer to home is October 7-8, 2000. This airmass seems a little warmer aloft than that one, but that may be countered by it being a week and a half later in the month with somewhat cooler water temps now... in other words, perhaps the airmass doesn't have to be as cold. That one produced a localized 6" in Peotone, IL with amounts trending down as you got closer to the lake. Could this be like an eastward displaced version of that? I was right in middle of hardest hit area for that storm. Just did this slideshow for it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Lock it in. mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I was right in middle of hardest hit area for that storm. Just did this slideshow for it. https://youtu.be/l1rc19eoPGg Several inches of heavy wet snow on trees with leaves really, really does a lot of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Several inches of heavy wet snow on trees with leaves really, really does a lot of damage. We had 2 feet where I was https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=A 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Lock it in. mode. We even get in on some that action down here. Time to start a new sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 HRRR likely overdoing lake-effect like usual. But IWX issues statement for tonight: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: HRRR likely overdoing lake-effect like usual. But IWX issues statement for tonight: The BUF NWS during that event had a lake effect rain event forecasted until the day of. They dropped a lake effect snow advisory for 1-6" of snow the morning the event hit then upgraded to warning that evening when things went crazy. I remember going for a walk with my parents during that event with transformers blowing all over, the sky lit up like a Christmas tree. Branches and trees were snapping nearly every second, my mom nearly getting hit by one. It was not an advisable walk, but it was such a crazy event I had to be out in it. I think the statistics afterward were Buffalo and surrounding areas had over 70% of the trees damaged/destroyed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 First T of snow on the new season today in Chicago and Rockford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2022 Author Share Posted October 17, 2022 50 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I was right in middle of hardest hit area for that storm. Just did this slideshow for it. Neat video 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2022 Author Share Posted October 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: First T of snow on the new season today in Chicago and Rockford. Took until November 12 to get a T at ORD last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Heaviest snow bands may end up east of my locale based on recent trends. Elkhart County looks to be the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 First WWA of the season! Some areas in the CWA already with close to an inch of snow. Still measuring rain IMBY. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Northern Indiana 521 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 INZ005-006-008-014-017-024-104-116-216-MIZ078-079-180500- /O.NEW.KIWX.WW.Y.0012.221017T2121Z-221018T0500Z/ Elkhart-Lagrange-Noble-Marshall-Whitley-Wabash- Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern Kosciusko- Cass MI-St. Joseph MI- Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Lagrange, Topeka, Shipshewana, Kendallville, Ligonier, Albion, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver, Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Wabash, North Manchester, South Bend, Mishawaka, Lakeville, Granger, Syracuse, Milford, North Webster, Leesburg, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Silver Lake, Mentone, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Marcellus, Sturgis, Three Rivers, White Pigeon, and Mendon 521 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow at times mixed with rain. Additional snow accumulations of up to three inches. Localized amounts up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on very slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. Slow down and give yourself extra time to get to your destination. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2022 Author Share Posted October 17, 2022 This weekend is going to feel like a torch compared to today's wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2022 Author Share Posted October 17, 2022 I would love to run some of these profiles in BUFKIT. Even without modifying for current lake water temps, SBCAPE is progged at 500+ J/kg downwind of the lake this evening. Would probably result in lake-induced CAPE values well over 1000 J/kg if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2022 Author Share Posted October 17, 2022 35 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: First WWA of the season! Some areas in the CWA already with close to an inch of snow. Still measuring rain IMBY. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Northern Indiana 521 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 INZ005-006-008-014-017-024-104-116-216-MIZ078-079-180500- /O.NEW.KIWX.WW.Y.0012.221017T2121Z-221018T0500Z/ Elkhart-Lagrange-Noble-Marshall-Whitley-Wabash- Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern Kosciusko- Cass MI-St. Joseph MI- Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Lagrange, Topeka, Shipshewana, Kendallville, Ligonier, Albion, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver, Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Wabash, North Manchester, South Bend, Mishawaka, Lakeville, Granger, Syracuse, Milford, North Webster, Leesburg, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Silver Lake, Mentone, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Marcellus, Sturgis, Three Rivers, White Pigeon, and Mendon 521 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow at times mixed with rain. Additional snow accumulations of up to three inches. Localized amounts up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on very slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. Slow down and give yourself extra time to get to your destination. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. IWX tweeted this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 21 hours ago, Brian D said: Looks like Duluth reported a 2.0" and a 2.7" the last couple days. 4.7" would make that the 3rd snowiest event for the first half of Oct. behind 1966 & 1925. Wow! Update: Sent an email to NWS Duluth regarding the amounts reported. That seems way more than anyone else got. Possible they screwed up. Thinking 2.7" is the total overall, as that is in line with all the other reports. Update #2: They responded quick. 2.7" was the total. Hopefully they will make the corrections on there prelim CF6 form, and it should make it into MRCC. After further discussion and clarification, there were 2 events, so 2.0 & 2.7 were correct. 4.7" in 2 days in mid Oct is very significant. It'll be interesting to see what happens later next week. Shades of 2020. Duluth OCT 2020 Date Precipitation(in) Snowfall(in) Snow Depth(in) Max Temp(°F) Min Temp(°F) 2020-10-01 T 0.0 0 50 37 2020-10-02 0.00 0.0 0 42 34 2020-10-03 0.00 0.0 0 44 29 2020-10-04 T 0.0 0 52 29 2020-10-05 T 0.0 0 65 42 2020-10-06 T 0.0 0 68 41 2020-10-07 0.00 0.0 0 63 44 2020-10-08 0.00 0.0 0 62 34 2020-10-09 T 0.0 0 80 51 2020-10-10 0.00 0.0 0 55 40 2020-10-11 0.01 0.0 0 58 41 2020-10-12 1.17 0.0 0 60 45 2020-10-13 0.00 0.0 0 58 39 2020-10-14 0.51 0.0 0 49 37 2020-10-15 T T 0 44 28 2020-10-16 0.01 T 0 41 26 2020-10-17 0.24 1.9 0 35 27 2020-10-18 T T 1 31 23 2020-10-19 T T 1 33 25 2020-10-20 0.47 5.8 6 34 29 2020-10-21 0.02 0.1 4 34 31 2020-10-22 0.32 4.1 4 34 30 2020-10-23 T 0.1 7 34 24 2020-10-24 T T 5 31 21 2020-10-25 T T 4 27 21 2020-10-26 T T 4 28 16 2020-10-27 T T 4 30 13 2020-10-28 0.03 T 4 37 30 2020-10-29 0.00 0.0 2 32 23 2020-10-30 0.00 0.0 2 40 20 2020-10-31 T T 1 46 26 Duluth Oct 2022 so far Date Precipitation(in) Snowfall(in) Snow Depth(in) Max Temp(°F) Min Temp(°F) 2022-10-01 0.00 0.0 0 58 48 2022-10-02 T 0.0 0 58 49 2022-10-03 T 0.0 0 70 51 2022-10-04 T 0.0 0 70 55 2022-10-05 0.03 0.0 0 72 54 2022-10-06 T 0.0 0 54 34 2022-10-07 T T 0 44 30 2022-10-08 0.00 0.0 M 61 32 2022-10-09 0.00 0.0 0 51 32 2022-10-10 0.00 0.0 0 62 32 2022-10-11 0.01 0.0 0 77 42 2022-10-12 0.03 0.0 0 56 38 2022-10-13 T T 0 44 31 2022-10-14 0.13 2.0 2 43 31 2022-10-15 0.23 2.7 2 44 31 2022-10-16 0.02 0.4 0 41 31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 We got in on the action today and had a few periods of light snow. Didn't expect it this far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 This is going to be a problem: At 5:45 PM EDT, 2 N North Webster [Kosciusko Co, IN] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. TREE LIMB 6-12 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWNED FROM THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND. At 6:30 PM EDT, 2 N North Webster [Kosciusko Co, IN] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports HEAVY SNOW of 2.40 INCH. TOTAL SINCE APPROXIMATELY 4:30 PM EDT. POWER FLICKERING FROM WIND AND HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. At 6:30 PM EDT, 2 N Tippecanoe Lake [Kosciusko Co, IN] NWS EMPLOYEE reports HEAVY SNOW of 2.00 INCH. TOTAL SINCE APPROXIMATELY 4:30 PM EDT. POWER IS FLICKERING FROM HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 17, 2022 Author Share Posted October 17, 2022 25 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: This is going to be a problem: At 5:45 PM EDT, 2 N North Webster [Kosciusko Co, IN] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. TREE LIMB 6-12 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWNED FROM THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND. At 6:30 PM EDT, 2 N North Webster [Kosciusko Co, IN] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports HEAVY SNOW of 2.40 INCH. TOTAL SINCE APPROXIMATELY 4:30 PM EDT. POWER FLICKERING FROM WIND AND HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. At 6:30 PM EDT, 2 N Tippecanoe Lake [Kosciusko Co, IN] NWS EMPLOYEE reports HEAVY SNOW of 2.00 INCH. TOTAL SINCE APPROXIMATELY 4:30 PM EDT. POWER IS FLICKERING FROM HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. At the rate things are going, have to wonder if a warning may eventually be justified for a small area (assuming not too much movement of the banding). Warning criteria amounts may be questionable but the out of season nature and impacts to the power grid may warrant bending the criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: At the rate things are going, have to wonder if a warning may eventually be justified for a small area (assuming not too much movement of the banding). Warning criteria amounts may be questionable but the out of season nature and impacts to the power grid may warrant bending the criteria. I think most areas switched back to rain for now except for near Fort Wayne and points south (!) where it appears to be snowing. But where ever the dominate snow band sets up overnight will create a mess if it's stationary for even 3 or 4 hours. I want to believe in the HRRR because it bullseyes me the last four runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 11,000 NIPSCO customer without power across Northern Indiana. https://www.nipsco.com/outages/power-outages 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 On 10/16/2022 at 2:19 PM, Cary67 said: Don't recall any significant October or early November snows in these parts leading to great winters but will leave that to the stats guys. Just sayin.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: 11,000 NIPSCO customer without power across Northern Indiana. https://www.nipsco.com/outages/power-outages Pretty crazy, possibly historic event unfolding. I had JUST moved to S. Bend in Oct of '97 when SWMI got hit with that synoptic 8" (trees still full of leaves) storm. Did massive tree damage in/around Kzoo. SB was just spared by half a county iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 48 minutes ago, Hoosier said: At the rate things are going, have to wonder if a warning may eventually be justified for a small area (assuming not too much movement of the banding). Warning criteria amounts may be questionable but the out of season nature and impacts to the power grid may warrant bending the criteria. Izzi about to bust to tame on his call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 The main show is slowly drifting south. Still all rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 22 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: The main show is slowly drifting south. Still all rain here. South side of Fort Wayne doing better attm. That's gotta be rare 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 Video from Fort Wayne tv station. Saw a 3.8 inch report in Whitley County, IN, too. And some photos in Syracuse, IN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2022 Author Share Posted October 18, 2022 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Just sayin.. Yeah, there's that, although Chicago got fringed. But a prime example of heavy early November snow in Chicago leading to a good season is 1951-52. There was 13.3" in the first week of November and the final total was 66.4", which is the 6th snowiest on record. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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