Hoosier Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 The first potential item of interest to open the month will be whether the remnants of Ian make it into the sub. The latest GFS and Euro do have it moving into the OV, and the associated clouds/precip have temps struggling to get out of the 50s on the models. Obviously subject to change. Beyond that, there are indications of at least some decent warm spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 October is going to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 26, 2022 Author Share Posted September 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: October is going to be warm. CFS is at least going warmer than average. Also on the drier side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: October is going to be warm. That depends on your definition of warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: That depends on your definition of warm. Any day it doesn't freeze or snow is one day closer to spring. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Would be a great Canadian Thanksgiving, maybe I could swim in the lake but the last few days probably wrecked the ssts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 This would be an interesting lake setup if it were colder. 850 mb temps are well below 0C but 925 mb to the surface is above freezing... not cold enough for snow. Coincidentally this is progged on the anniversary of the 10/7-10/8/2000 lake effect event, when I did witness heavy, wet snow accompanied by plentiful thunder/lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: This would be an interesting lake setup if it were colder. 850 mb temps are well below 0C but 925 mb to the surface is above freezing... not cold enough for snow. Coincidentally this is progged on the anniversary of the 10/7-10/8/2000 lake effect event, when I did witness heavy, wet snow accompanied by plentiful thunder/lightning. I remember that event. I was fishing in a bass tournament in Marshall County IN (Lake Maxinckukee) and watched the lake effect clouds off on the horizon rolling across the sky. A blustery day on the water for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: I remember that event. I was fishing in a bass tournament in Marshall County IN (Lake Maxinckukee) and watched the lake effect clouds off on the horizon rolling across the sky. A blustery day on the water for sure. I've talked about it before, but it is still one of the craziest wx events I've been through. Not a whopping amount of snow where I was, but the extremely early season nature of it and all the thunder/lightning makes it very memorable. It was a Saturday night and I was going to see a movie but before I left home, I checked the radar and saw the stuff upstream over the lake and thought that maybe it had a chance to be interesting later on. I came out of the theater and it was lightly raining. Then it flipped to wet snow and came down hard. Had to battle marginal temps and ground warmth of course but it still managed to accumulate to some degree. Woke up in the middle of the night to the sound of a large branch crashing down from the weight of the snow. Snow didn't completely melt until late afternoon/evening of the 8th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 On 9/26/2022 at 3:12 PM, Chicago Storm said: That depends on your definition of warm. It's actually looking normal to slightly below for the eastern Great Lakes, for the first half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 This is Halloween weather. A slap in the face for early Oct. And I have another round indicated around the 10th as per my forecast in the Holiday thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Down here, we've had temps mostly in the 80s with low humidity and mostly clear skies for the past week, and it will continue for another week.Can't get more top shelf than that. Only some weirdo could hate this weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 October picking up where September left off, seasonable, sunny, no wind, and cool nights. Seriously, this weather has been damn near picture perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Chambana said: October picking up where September left off, seasonable, sunny, no wind, and cool nights. Seriously, this weather has been damn near picture perfect. I can attest to this. I have been taking plenty of pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 A nice, rain-free weekend. A great way to kick off October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 5 hours ago, bowtie` said: I can attest to this. I have been taking plenty of pictures. Only had clouds about 2 hours around noon. Of course, I was not going to miss that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 not my problem but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 Lake effect parameters are looking pretty good around here on Thursday night into Friday... not too dissimilar to the setup from late September. Should have a pretty robust lake response for a while that probably most favors the IL/IN state line area/Lake county IN, but the IL shore also looks to be in play for some activity. Although 850 mb temps are progged to be at least a couple degrees below 0C, that is not cold enough to get snow at this time of year with onshore flow off of a lake that is still well into the 60s. It may be cold/saturated enough at cloud level for snow production, but with freezing levels near 4k feet, you'd have to be at least a couple thousand feet in the air for a chance to see flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Yesterday GRR mentioned flakes possible in the higher elevations of the Lower Peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 Kinda sucks to be wasting these setups now when it's not cold enough, especially since I'm not in the snowbelt so there's no guarantees how many good setups there will be later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Top shelf weather continues for the foreseeable future, I can dig this. This weather is just a chefs kiss. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 October is going to be warm.this isn’t looking so hot right now.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 3 km NAM is pretty bullish on the lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 IL shore actually looks more favored now. I think the modeled .5"+ amounts being advertised are realistic. Parameters look nice and it looks like there will be good convergence for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 ready 2 b buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 If clouds hang around enough, I think there's a chance we don't get out of the 40s tomorrow afternoon. At least today is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 This is actually the most D0 that there has been in the region all year. But because of the time of year, it will not be able to worsen as quickly as it could in summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: ready 2 b buried Most of the 12z CAMs produce localized amounts near/over .5". Obviously can't have the convergence axis wobbling around too much to be able to reach those amounts, and the models generally do stall it out for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 blessed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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