Hurricane Ian

[GaWx]

Almost no net movement 11PM to 2AM  (only ~3 mph) per NHC coordinates wasn't totally unexpected based on the Euro and UKMET as they had very slow movement then. However, they both had it speed up quite a bit from 2AM through 5AM. So, look for an increase in speed to start soon. If it doesn't and the 5AM is near the 2AM position, then we'd know the models are off.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[olafminesaw]

The overnight models seem to be indicating the highest gusts will be cut off right around the triad area. Depends, it seems, on how much the dry air to the north is able to cut off the convection as it pushes in . If heavier rain rates are still present as the center moves past Charlotte, gusts could exceed 50 mph, otherwise they may stay in the 40s

[kvegas-wx]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

The overnight models seem to be indicating the highest gusts will be cut off right around the triad area. Depends, it seems, on how much the dry air to the north is able to cut off the convection as it pushes in . If heavier rain rates are still present as the center moves past Charlotte, gusts could exceed 50 mph, otherwise they may stay in the 40s

Power outages will likely be severe today.  Generally speaking, there are so many dead trees around my area in the triad, mostly diseased pines and lightning strikes, that I expect quite a few of those will find their way to a power line.  Ian is certainly cementing his legacy.

[frazdaddy]

37 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Power outages will likely be severe today.  Generally speaking, there are so many dead trees around my area in the triad, mostly diseased pines and lightning strikes, that I expect quite a few of those will find their way to a power line.  Ian is certainly cementing his legacy.

Everything is above ground in Chatham County, expecting a lot of outages here as well.

[weatherlover]

Could be wrong but a few more ticks east and much of western Carolina’s see very little rain….  Looking like the sharp cutoff may be around Lenoir/Morganton area?

[marsman]

16 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I’ve never been in a tropical storm where heat will be needed

LMAO... and it kicks on in my house, set to 68. 55F outside right now, .34" of rain since midnight.

[yotaman]

Woke up before 6am and our power was out. It came back on at 6:03 and the back out again at 6:30 for about 5 minutes. It is on right now. Heavy rain right now. Winds gusting up to maybe 25 mph at times. 1.32" in the bucket. Temp at 66.

[Mowfishin]

Currently breezy with some gusts in the 40s. Big oak just took out power. 3” of rain 

[eyewall]

So far in Raleigh it just isn't very impressive and that is about what I expected. Just a rainy day.

[SENC]

Nice blustery Day on tap here on Topsail Island..  

 

66F
Pressure 29.8 in
Visibility 0~5 miles
Clouds Cloudy
Dew Point 64 F
Humidity 97 %
Rainfall (so far) 0.15 in

Wind(s) are Quite "blustery"

[HKY_WX]

Best wind potential will be this evening. IMO this storm will continue to error east of track. Should be some good rain totals and gusts later this eve in central NC.

[KChuck]

2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Power outages will likely be severe today.  Generally speaking, there are so many dead trees around my area in the triad, mostly diseased pines and lightning strikes, that I expect quite a few of those will find their way to a power line.  Ian is certainly cementing his legacy.

I sure hope you're wrong about our area. Wife is on the tail end of her 2nd round of COVID. 

[GaWx]

6Z UKMET landfalls at Myrtle Beach at 5PM EDT. UKMET has been nothing short of stellar since the 0Z 9/25 run and better than any other model since then! Let's see if it can earn an exclamation mark for its performance here with a near Myrtle Beach landfall:

[olafminesaw]

[StantonParkHoya]

I’ve seen some forecasts of 50-60mph winds but have yet to see any reports of such from the coast

[frazdaddy]

http://hint.fm/wind/

[Ser Pounce]

As of right now not a lot is going on in Charleston. Windy enough to knock down pine cones and twigs and light rain every so often. My neighbor has a bradford pear that he's parked his Hummer H2 close to. The tree is around as big as they get before they start dropping big branches so the fates have been tempted.

[BooneWX]

My eyes may be deceiving me but it appears to have commenced a west of north movement now… if so, Garden City Beach? 

[GaWx]

Buoy 41004, which is at 32.5N, 79.1W, is very near the center. It last reported at 10:40 AM a SLP of 28.96" or 981 mb. Winds had become much lighter, with the center barely south then, at 14 knots from the ESE. Two hours earlier they were at 43 knots, gusting to 58 knots. All of the constantly updated data is here along with a cool recent photo of the high seas:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004</i><br

[BooneWX]

If this thing comes in at Pawleys, it’ll have implications downstream. 20 mile wiggle south as the crow flies.

[GaWx]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Buoy 41004, which is at 32.5N, 79.1W, is very near the center. It last reported at 10:40 AM a SLP of 28.96" or 981 mb. Winds had become much lighter, with the center barely south then, at 14 knots from the ESE. Two hours earlier they were at 43 knots, gusting to 58 knots. All of the constantly updated data is here along with a cool recent photo of the high seas:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004</i><br

Latest report (11:20 AM) from the 41004 buoy, which is ~65 miles ESE of Charleston at 32.5N, 79.1W, had a SLP down to 29.92"/979 mb with a south wind at only 8 knots:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004</i><br

[BooneWX]

Looks like McCllellanville might be the landfall point soon. 

[yotaman]

I have picked up 3.23" so far with winds probably in the 20 to 30 mph range. Lost power early this morning but it came back on after a few hours. Right now, it is still raining, and the sun is out. Temp at 68.

[olafminesaw]

Impacts from the storm across central NC will continue through early
Saturday. Heavy rainfall will lead to a threat of flash flooding,
especially this afternoon into tonight. Tropical storm force wind
gusts of 40 to 60 mph, with isolated higher gusts, are expected across
portions of the central, southern, and northwest Piedmont, Coastal
Plain, and Sandhills, with gusts to 40 mph elsewhere. In addition, an
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out across the Coastal Plain today
into tonight.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

The coldest tropical system I have ever experienced apartments from October’s Sandy.

[GaWx]

I don't see how what is on radar very near the coast can be the surface center. That imho almost has to be some kind of eddy. The center was near the 41004 buoy just 1.5 hours ago and that's ~65 miles ESE of Charleston. It can't be onshore that fast.

[StantonParkHoya]

They just called it GaWx

[HKY_WX]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I don't see how what is on radar very near the coast can be the surface center. That imho almost has to be some kind of eddy. The center was near the 41004 buoy just 1.5 hours ago and that's ~65 miles ESE of Charleston. It can't be onshore that fast.

Yeah the centers are no longer vertically stacked like a traditional Hurricane. It's  tougher to make a real landfall call. I'd  prob go by the slp wherever that is currently located.

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Yeah the centers are no longer vertically stacked like a traditional Hurricane. It's  tougher to make a real landfall call. I'd  prob go by the slp wherever that is currently located.

 If the main center really came inland like Dr. Knabb said just SW of McClellanville, which is ~25 miles SW of Georgetown, why are the winds at Georgetown still strong from the north? A low to its SW would as you know be giving G'town SE to E winds, not N winds. Also, the SLP is still falling rapidly there at 29.10" as of 1:35 PM.