GaWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Its continuing to trend to the northeast. I think landfall from Georgetown to Myrtle Beach is a good bet. I'm even further northeast. Based on the continued movement of Ian east of the forecast track and the trend of models landfalling further and further NE, I think it will landfall in the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: I'm even further northeast. Based on the continued movement of Ian east of the forecast track and the trend of models landfalling further and further NE, I think it will landfall in the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area. Could be right. It went from 6 to 10 inches of rain here to maybe 2 inches. At this rate we may get nothing. Lots of cancelled events and festivals too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 GSP just updated the forecast.. The 11 am advisory from NHC has forced some changes and upgrades to the forecast. The latest track takes the storm center over the western Piedmont early Saturday morning as it is weakening from a Tropical Storm to a Depression. The problem is the expanded wind field as the storm interacts with a surface boundary and the pressure gradient ahead of that boundary as it moves back north. Indications are that during the daytime on Friday, stronger wind gusts upwards of 45 to 55 mph may lift northward across the I-77 corridor through the afternoon and evening...well ahead of the center of circulation. After coordination with neighboring offices, the decision was made to issue a Tropical Storm Warning because the chances of getting Tropical Storm force wind gusts is roughly 50 pct or higher along/east of a line from roughly Chester to York, Lincolton, and Statesville. The strongest winds would be Friday afternoon and evening. The areas west of the Tropical Storm Warning will likely get an Advisory on the next issuance later this afternoon. A Flood Watch will probably also be issued for part of the fcst area with the heavier rain developing Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 If these winds mix down to the surface, that's no bueno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 New Euro is further south again landfalling just south of Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Tomorrow is going to be a gnarly day across the entire state of NC except maybe extreme SW sections. I think that left side is going to be nastier than we realize as well with the transition to more of a Nor’easter style system. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 54 minutes ago, GaWx said: I'm even further northeast. Based on the continued movement of Ian east of the forecast track and the trend of models landfalling further and further NE, I think it will landfall in the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area. that would be a 170 mile miss by the Euro under 24 hours away.... bold call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Okay folks. I am throwing in the towel for the Upstate of S.C. I don’t see us getting any rain from this storm. Hope I am wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 It's going to be wild tomorrow afternoon, legit tropical storm conditions and 55 degrees. You almost have to consider the wind chill sigh Ian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It's going to be wild tomorrow afternoon, legit tropical storm conditions and 55 degrees. You almost have to consider the wind chill sigh Ian I’ve never been in a tropical storm where heat will be needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Should be a pretty rainy couple days up my way, thinking that Hampton Roads will be far enough NE that winds aren't a big deal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 In Charleston getting ready for lots of rain I was definitely feeling a wind chill while outdoors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 hours ago, gman said: Okay folks. I am throwing in the towel for the Upstate of S.C. I don’t see us getting any rain from this storm. Hope I am wrong. And this folks is what is known as the kiss of death. Upstate is about to get hammered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: that would be a 170 mile miss by the Euro under 24 hours away.... bold call Longitudinally, it is only ~75 miles from the Euro. And the UKMET has done much better with Ian the last 5 days. I'm favoring the 12Z UKMET track (just S of Myrtle Beach) over the 12Z Euro (just S of CHS) for the 2nd landfall. As of 2PM EDT, whereas the Euro had it at 29.1N, 80.0W, the better performing (for Ian) UKMET had Ian at 28.9N, 80.0W, which is exactly where the NHC had it then. So, advantage goes to UKMET as of then. Looking ahead, both the 11 AM NHC and the 12Z Euro have Ian going no further west than 79.9W while still east of N FL. But the 12Z UKMET gets it further east to 79.4W. That will be a key. Will Ian while still east of N FL get close to the 79.4W of the UKMET or will it lag behind and be closer to the NHC/Euro longitudes of 79.9W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acc fan Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Hurricane Warning just to my south. I am 3 miles from Wrightsville Beach. Gusty winds and possible tornadoes on tap for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etownshane Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 With the updated 5pm track, it looks like NE GA will only get a smattering of rain and light wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mowfishin Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 I'm on ground level in Mcclellanville. I will try to post photos/updates. Plan on staying in neighbors house tomorrow. Looks like surge will move in around mid morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track. Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: NHC actual locations: 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W 2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W 5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Trop storm warning for CLT area. Bring on Hugo lite! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Trop storm warning for CLT area. Bring on Hugo lite!All the way through Central NC.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 18Z UKMET is still just S of Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 hour ago, GaWx said: The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track. Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: NHC actual locations: 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W 2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W 5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach. The NHC 8 PM location is 29.7N, 79.4W, which is right on the 12Z UKMET forecast for 8 PM and well east of the 12Z Euro forecast for 8 PM, which had it at 29.7N, 79.9W. The NHC 5 PM track didn't have it get to 79.4W for another 6 hours. Thus both the 5 PM NHC track and the 12Z Euro are too far west. Therefore, I'm sticking with the 12Z/18Z UKMET runs for a just SW of Myrtle Beach landfall rather than close to CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Light rain has finally started here just to the SE of New Bern. Winds have been breezy all day but probably no more than 20 mph. Temp stayed around 68 all day. Down to 66 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Having gust to around 30 here at MB, some light rain now. Have a condo right on the beach, so I’ll see what I wake up to tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Tomorrow will be one of the nastiest, coldest, raw September days in recent memory. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Up to 85 mph. Looking like it's going to make a run at cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 At this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 0Z UKMET is a little SW of the prior two runs with landfall near Georgetown instead of just SW of Myrtle Beach: HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 79.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 30.09.2022 0 29.5N 79.5W 988 58 1200UTC 30.09.2022 12 31.4N 79.2W 984 55 0000UTC 01.10.2022 24 34.5N 79.4W 987 37 1200UTC 01.10.2022 36 35.7N 80.4W 1002 25 0000UTC 02.10.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Tomorrow will be one of the nastiest, coldest, raw September days in recent memory. Was thinking that remaining in the mid 50s all day in Cherryville probably breaks the September lowest maximum of all time or has to be near the top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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