Hurricane Ian

[gman]

8 hours ago, jjwxman said:

FWIW… the Extended run of the 00z HRRR takes Ian even further into the Atlantic through hr48.




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That model would give no rain for Upstate S.C., right ?

[nwohweather]

Looking more and more like a Cat 1 will make landfall between HHI and CHS. The stronger this storm gets, the more strength it’ll have as it chugs through FL. It will be interesting to see how it takes on the very dry air in place north of FL, we essentially have a wedge front in place at the moment (high today of 73 with sun!)

Just cannot underestimate the Gulf Stream and the very warm water in place offshore at the moment. It’s absolutely ripe for a little intensification just depending on how much time this thing can get offshore

[wncsnow]

The wind is going to be pretty significant I think for coastal areas of SC and even inland with the gradient of the strong high pressure in the NE. 

[Ser Pounce]

That would be better from a local perspective than a SAV-CHS landfall I suppose. I'm going to have to start getting the place ready for a big rain event though. Lots of gutters missing because of work on the house so I'll probably have to go temp install some of the scraps they left lying around to get some kind of coverage for the place.

edit: I screwed up, read Myrtle Beach instead of Hilton Head which would have been a different scenario for CHS being farther up the coast.

[nwohweather]

The wind is going to be pretty significant I think for coastal areas of SC and even inland with the gradient of the strong high pressure in the NE. 

Interaction with that trough is key. Also great instability and helicity number should make for a solid tornado event as well.

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said:

That would be better from a local perspective than a SAV-CHS landfall I suppose. I'm going to have to start getting the place ready for a big rain event though. Lots of gutters missing because of work on the house so I'll probably have to go temp install some of the scraps they left lying around to get some kind of coverage for the place.

I think south of Charleston near Hilton Head seems likely for 2nd landfall but it has been shifting slightly north

[Ser Pounce]

24 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think south of Charleston near Hilton Head seems likely for 2nd landfall but it has been shifting slightly north

I screwed that up, for some reason I read "between Charleston and Myrtle Beach" instead of Hilton Head. But it seems like from a Charleston perspective year after year models tend to shift farther up the coast over time than not. At this point my biggest concern is how to manage virtual learning on Friday since that's what schools are doing. That and runoff control. Need to wrap up what I'm doing at work and phone in that I need to use PTO for the rest of the day.

 

Push notification for storm surge warning just went out for whatever that's worth.

[Shack]

Someone clue me in, please.  I've seen this before.

There's a disconnect from what I see as the so-called "strength" of the hurricane as reported in it's windspeed, i.e., "Category 4 storm with winds of 155mph" doesn't match what my layman's eyes see reported on the various weather sites. 

The eyewall looks to be at this moment(12:29pm) coming ashore at Captiva/Sanibel Island.

The stations that I see reporting (at the eyewall) the highest sustained wind is St. Stephens at 71mph with a gust to 86mph. 

So, my question is, is the number that is given to us by the hurricane folks supposed to match actual ground windspeeds?

[sbnwx85]

This is one of the highest observed wind reports I've ever seen:

Heavy Rain Fog and Windy

75°F

24°C

Humidity	96%
Wind Speed	E 86 G 123 mph
Barometer	NA
Dewpoint	74°F (23°C)
Visibility	0.50 mi
Last update	28 Sep 3:54 pm EDT

[Jebman]

Check out this time lapse radar of Ian https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/28/us/hurricane-ian-florida

[kvegas-wx]

I'm confused with the lack of comments in this thread.  We have a rather serious flooding threat headed our way and a potential landfalling hurricane within the Carolinas or Georgia.  Are we just monitoring the main thread or posting updates here?  Nobody wants to talk about severe flooding in western NC but we are 72 hours from that potential reality.  So what gives?

[btownheel]

I'm confused with the lack of comments in this thread.  We have a rather serious flooding threat headed our way and a potential landfalling hurricane within the Carolinas or Georgia.  Are we just monitoring the main thread or posting updates here?  Nobody wants to talk about severe flooding in western NC but we are 72 hours from that potential reality.  So what gives?

Think everyone is locked on the Tropical Forum right now watching Ian destroy Florida.


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[olafminesaw]

10 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I'm confused with the lack of comments in this thread.  We have a rather serious flooding threat headed our way and a potential landfalling hurricane within the Carolinas or Georgia.  Are we just monitoring the main thread or posting updates here?  Nobody wants to talk about severe flooding in western NC but we are 72 hours from that potential reality.  So what gives?

I also think the dry stable air is going to mitigate the threat of winds/flooding. Fresh water and coastal flooding will be a rather big deal for coastal SC though. 

 

The 18z Euro

 

[wncsnow]

Euro and other models still trending NE and faster with Ian. I don't think WNC will get more than a couple inches of rain.  Landfall might be closer to Georgetown than Hilton Head

[calculus1]

I think we've gotten soft recently, regarding rainfall.

My wife's boss referred to this weekend as a 100-year rain event for Hickory and wants them to work from home on Friday. What?!

I have a conference ending early on Friday in Surry County, NC, because of potential bad weather; i.e., heavy rain. Really?!

HS football has been moved up a day in Hickory because of Hurricane Ian. We can't play in rain?!

Since when did we begin to cancel things because of rain? This is nuts. I think we get 2-3 inches of rain maximum in Hickory, NC. We can get that much in a single summer afternoon with thunderstorms. Maybe I am wrong and we get 10 inches of rain, but I don't get all the panicking in interior NC outside the mountains.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

[GaWx]

59 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro and other models still trending NE and faster with Ian. I don't think WNC will get more than a couple inches of rain.  Landfall might be closer to Georgetown than Hilton Head

Agreed. Other than the UKMET, the models are continuing to play catch-up. Ian continues to move on the right side of the consensus and at a faster speed. It wouldn't surprise me if there's no sharp left turn to NW or even NNW. From a climo perspective, that kind of track after crossing FL to the NE is virtually unheard of though that doesn't mean it can't happen, of course. As of now, I'm also thinking closer to Georgetown than HH. It may even end up well north of there for all we know right now.

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

I'm confused with the lack of comments in this thread.  We have a rather serious flooding threat headed our way and a potential landfalling hurricane within the Carolinas or Georgia.  Are we just monitoring the main thread or posting updates here?  Nobody wants to talk about severe flooding in western NC but we are 72 hours from that potential reality.  So what gives?

Coastal South Carolina should look out for heavy rain and possible tropical storm force gusts, as well as a modest surge threat. Stable air farther inland will work against heavy rain there.

[gtg947h]

Latest NHC track nudged a tiny bit further east with a landfall on Edisto.  Out of pure self-interest I continue to wish it further east...

Schools here are closed today and tomorrow, citing among other things "high winds... that will create dangerous conditions for the operation of school buses... and unsafe conditions for our walking students".  My six year old is devastated.  "But Daddy, I want to go to schoooooooool!! "

[Phelps]

I don't know anything about TS tracking but the GFS has this thing pulling out of Charlotte by daybreak Saturday and the NAM even earlier.  Euro lingers a bit.  No idea if I should trust it but the trends sound like they are for less of an impact for this area.  Clemson/NC State is not going to be the mess we initially thought it was going to be.  

[QC_Halo]

GSP mentioned they were debating issuing a TS watch at 3:30 am. 
Looks like they are still mulling it over. The short term forecast didn’t change with the 6:45 update.

[wncsnow]

The flooding threat has diminished in WNC because its moving much faster and a little further east each cycle. 

[gman]

The computer models continue to show jogs east for Ian. I would not be surprised to see very little rain in the extreme western half of Upstate SC. That includes Clemson. 

[olafminesaw]

I'm growing somewhat concerned about the wind threat across the Piedmont. While sustained winds diminish, the HHHR and the hires Nam have gusts over 60 mph for much of the region, the GFS in the 40-60 mph range, and the Euro in the 30-40 mph range. There must be some synoptic scale features at play. Usually the HRRR does a good job of picking up on these, but we may not have a clear idea until tomorrow morning what's coming our way.

[QC_Halo]

Yep, me too. My residence, and the rental home we own is surrounded by large trees.

[CentralNC]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm growing somewhat concerned about the wind threat across the Piedmont. While sustained winds diminish, the HHHR and the hires Nam have gusts over 60 mph for much of the region, the GFS in the 40-60 mph range, and the Euro in the 30-40 mph range. There must be some synoptic scale features at play. Usually the HRRR does a good job of picking up on these, but we may not have a clear idea until tomorrow morning what's coming our way.

I'm at least a little hesitant to jump on that bandwagon.  Those winds often get overdone but no doubt there will be some power outages in the piedmont.

[wncsnow]

Its continuing to trend to the northeast. I think landfall from Georgetown to Myrtle Beach is a good bet.

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

I'm at least a little hesitant to jump on that bandwagon.  Those winds often get overdone but no doubt there will be some power outages in the piedmont.

For sure. I think 40-50 mph is possible, but much more than that is unlikely. The current forecasts don't seem to be calling for much in the way of wind, so it may catch some by surprise, although it seems because of what happened in Florida, many are at least weather aware.

[HKY_WX]

This will be a solid wind event through central SC/NC. The main reason is we're combining a Hurricane with a HP over the northeast. The gradient will be strong. The wind will mostly be confined to Friday/Friday Night though.

[strongwxnc]

GSP:

Hurricane Local Statement 

Tropical Storm Warning

 

[wncsnow]

UKMET (which has led the way with the track of this storm) now shows a Murrells Inlet landfall. Weak cane most likely with the pressure.