nwohweather Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Figured I’d start a regional thread as it looks like significant impacts across the region. Verbatim serious rains for the Carolina’s/GA/TN with tropical storm strength into GA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Juicy next week or so thanks largely to Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 26 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Juicy next week or so thanks largely to Ian This map shows 7-8" in the SAV-CHS corridor, which if actually occurred would obviously imply a serious flood risk especially due to much of that area having had well above normal rainfall July through early Sept. leading to high water tables. I experienced that bigtime. But one small saving grace if that were to occur is that there's been very little rain the past two weeks. Also, there's hope that enough low dewpoint air would interact to keep rainfall down from what this map shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/24/2022 at 9:31 AM, nwohweather said: Figured I’d start a regional thread as it looks like significant impacts across the region. Verbatim serious rains for the Carolina’s/GA/TN with tropical storm strength into GA. On the east coast, the biggest flooding risk from rainfall as of now (subject to change) appears to be from areas near Daytona Beach to Jacksonville to Brunswick based on extremely slow motion on many model runs. If it plays out like some models show, it could be pretty devastating for some low lying areas. This is shown well in the WPC map above that has ~10-12" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Been bone dry in Raleigh for weeks. We can soak it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 16 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Been bone dry in Raleigh for weeks. We can soak it up. Same here in Hickory, NC. We got 0.62 inch of rainfall last night due to a rogue storm on the frontal passage, but that was the first measurable rainfall in weeks. We need the rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 This has some of the 12Z tracks as well as the 6Z hurricane model and GFS tracks. Note that the 12Z UKMET hits Charleston, SC, (dark blue track) which is an extreme SE outlier and is also SE of its 0Z track: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Same here in Hickory, NC. We got 0.62 inch of rainfall last night due to a rogue storm on the frontal passage, but that was the first measurable rainfall in weeks. We need the rain here.Went under a warning last night but only picked up .01 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 18 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Been bone dry in Raleigh for weeks. We can soak it up. 1 hour ago, calculus1 said: Same here in Hickory, NC. We got 0.62 inch of rainfall last night due to a rogue storm on the frontal passage, but that was the first measurable rainfall in weeks. We need the rain here. Last measurable rain IMBY was Sept 12th. Only 1.52" for the month so far. Not bothering aerating the lawn, it's hard as a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 At hour 120 of 12Z, Euro (Columbus, GA) is 300 miles west of the UKMET (CHS)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Euro keeps pumping out 6 plus here along the escarpment. We could handle it most likely but if we get any training of cells along the Blue Ridge it could get ugly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 My Wolfpack friends might want to pack the rain gear for Saturday night. Probably not a good tailgating game. Shame with Gameday in town and national TV for top 10 matchup. Looks really nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awesomesauce81 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: My Wolfpack friends might want to pack the rain gear for Saturday night. Probably not a good tailgating game. Shame with Gameday in town and national TV for top 10 matchup. Looks really nasty. Sounds like a perfect storm for a wild NC State win 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 C'mon guys, if I was on the beach in west FL and there was a storm like this incoming, there would be a hell of a lot more posts! Let's TRACK THIS STORM! Cat 4 is gonna be BAD on the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Anyone got rainfall maps from the 18z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 53 minutes ago, Jebman said: C'mon guys, if I was on the beach in west FL and there was a storm like this incoming, there would be a hell of a lot more posts! Let's TRACK THIS STORM! Cat 4 is gonna be BAD on the coast! Good to see you jebman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 That’s a heck of a shift East on the 18z EPS… Wow!12z vs 18z EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I am praying for you all in Florida. Storm surge along with large battering waves and debris propelled by the wind and waves will cause serious damage. Praying for a miracle on the West Coast of Florida. Stay very safe everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 Probably going to see a solid tornado event here across the South. Also 4-8” of rain across the Charleston metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 If this keeps trending east, it could have enough time to maintain or re-strengthen a little then move back into SC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Does anyone know where you can find the latest central pressure? I have looked on the NHC Ian site and the 1100 update as well as weather channel but can't find one since 0800. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said: Does anyone know where you can find the latest central pressure? I have looked on the NHC Ian site and the 1100 update as well as weather channel but can't find one since 0800. Never mind, found it. 963 at 1100 advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Key West Cam https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/ Look at those waves already! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 This reminds me of Charley (2004) in terms of quickly changing track shifting east (and therefore landfall south). I can remember talk about Tampa Bay being the landfall quite close to the final 12-18 hour tracking of Charley. Then it shifted to a landfall at Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda. A few days ago this was heading for Cedar Key if I recall, now it may not even make it to Sarasota before landfall. There are good things about this, a full storm surge and strongest cat-3 wind gusts in Tampa Bay would be a lot worse than a backside impact there. But all regions of west Florida need to be on high alert of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 hours ago, wncsnow said: If this keeps trending east, it could have enough time to maintain or re-strengthen a little then move back into SC As evidenced by the 18z NAM which would be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 0z NAM would be a very windy Friday/Saturday for a lot of us... depends on where second landfall is at and how much time it spends over Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 FWIW… the Extended run of the 00z HRRR takes Ian even further into the Atlantic through hr48. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 36 minutes ago, jjwxman said: FWIW… the Extended run of the 00z HRRR takes Ian even further into the Atlantic through hr48. . Ian won't be in the best environment for intensification, luckily. Dry air and shear should be abundant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Strong CAT 4 this morning. No bueno for Central FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Strong CAT 4 this morning. No bueno for Central FL Yeah 155 mph sustained winds is crazy. Florida is going to get absolutely hammered with this one. Not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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